When the cease-fire settlement between Israel and Hamas was introduced in January, Israelis and Palestinians burst into simultaneous celebrations, optimistic after 15 months of conflict.
Now, with the primary part of the deal over on Sunday and Israel introducing a wholly new proposal that Hamas has already rejected, concern is rising that the preventing that diminished Gaza to rubble, killed tens of hundreds of Palestinians and threatened the lives of hostages might resume.
Because the cease-fire teeters, each Hamas and Israel are pursuing two paths, one diplomatic and one other navy.
On the diplomatic entrance, Hamas is insisting on the implementation of the second part of the unique settlement, which requires an finish to the conflict, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the discharge of extra hostages and prisoners.
Israel, although, has made a brand new proposal for a seven-week extension of the present cease-fire, throughout which Hamas could be required to launch half the remaining residing hostages in addition to the stays of half the deceased ones. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Sunday attributed the proposal to the work of President Trump’s Center East envoy, Steve Witkoff.
For weeks, Israel has been sending alerts that it wasn’t concerned with shifting ahead with the second part of the settlement. Whereas the 2 sides agreed to the second part in precept, they by no means labored out the main points and have staked out irreconcilable visions.
Mr. Netanyahu has stated repeatedly that Hamas’s authorities and navy wing have to be dismantled, a place shared by his right-wing coalition companions within the authorities. Hamas has recommended it was prepared to surrender civilian governance of Gaza however has firmly rejected dissolving its navy wing, a essential supply of its energy within the enclave.
The brand new proposal, as described on Sunday by Mr. Netanyahu, seems to be an try to switch the cease-fire take care of phrases that will allow Israel to deliver house dozens of hostages and stays of hostages with out committing to the tip of the conflict.
However the suggestion, analysts stated, could also be an effort to shake up the cease-fire talks in a approach that breaks the impasse between Israel and Hamas, not less than briefly.
“It’s not likely possible, nevertheless it’s a gap provide,” stated Shira Efron, an analyst on the Israel Coverage Discussion board, a New York-based analysis group. “It might drive a dialogue that bridges the 2 sides’ positions to increase the cease-fire for a pair weeks or extra.”
Nonetheless, she stated, it doesn’t resolve the underlying variations between Hamas and Israel in regards to the finish of the conflict.
At a authorities assembly on Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu stated the proposal included a short lived cease-fire through the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and the Jewish vacation of Passover. Half of the remaining hostages in Gaza, he stated, could be returned to Israel initially of the short-term cease-fire and the opposite half could be repatriated on the finish, if an settlement on a everlasting cease-fire is concluded.
Within the first part of the three-stage deal agreed to in January, Hamas launched 25 Israeli hostages and handed over the our bodies of eight others in trade for greater than 1,500 Palestinians jailed by Israel. However with out additional deliberate exchanges of hostages and prisoners, Israel can have fewer incentives to maintain the truce going.
On Sunday, Hamas dismissed the brand new proposal as “a blatant try to renege on the settlement and evade negotiations for its second part.”
Hamas considers the thought of instantly giving up half of the hostages a nonstarter, nevertheless it might think about exchanging a small variety of hostages or our bodies for Palestinian prisoners, even with out a dedication to the tip of the conflict, analysts stated. The hostages symbolize Hamas’s strongest leverage, and each time it trades an Israeli captive for Palestinian prisoners, its negotiating hand is weakened.
Two Israeli officers, who spoke on situation of anonymity to debate inside deliberations, acknowledged that Hamas would most likely be prepared to surrender solely a small variety of hostages, or their stays, with out ensures for the tip of the conflict. That dynamic, the officers stated, could finally make Israel select between restarting a conflict to unseat Hamas or saving hostages nonetheless believed to be alive.
About 25 captives and the stays of greater than 30 others are nonetheless in Gaza, in keeping with the Israeli authorities.
“Israel stands on the horns of a dilemma,” stated Yaakov Amidror, a retired main basic who served as Mr. Netanyahu’s nationwide safety adviser.
On Sunday, Hazem Qassim, a spokesman for Hamas, stated the militant group was insisting on negotiating the second part as a result of it needed to stop the resumption of the conflict and guarantee Israel withdraws from Gaza.
“It is a elementary place for the Hamas motion,” he instructed the Qatari-funded broadcaster Al Jazeera.
Each Israel and Hamas have despatched negotiators to speak with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. However even because the diplomatic discussions proceed, the 2 sides are getting ready for the potential of a return to conflict.
Hamas has been accumulating unexploded bombs all through Gaza and repurposing the explosives and their steel instances as improvised explosive gadgets, in keeping with one member of the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s navy wing, who spoke on situation of anonymity to debate delicate particulars. The militant group has additionally been recruiting new members and changing commanders killed within the preventing, the particular person stated.
Israel has prepared extensively for a brand new and intense marketing campaign in Gaza, in keeping with Israeli officers. They stated any new operations would come with concentrating on Hamas officers who siphon off support provides meant for civilians, in addition to destroying buildings and infrastructure utilized by the Hamas-run civilian authorities.
Such a plan has not but been authorized by the Israeli cupboard, the officers stated, however they imagine that solely Mr. Trump might dissuade Mr. Netanyahu from renewed conflict.
Whereas Israel and Hamas wrestle over Gaza’s future, Palestinian civilians within the enclave, and the households of hostages, are dealing with an anxious interval of limbo.
“They’re being left in a state of perpetual fear,” stated Akram Atallah, a London-based Palestinian columnist initially from Jabaliya within the northern Gaza Strip. “If the conflict returns, they stand to lose probably the most.”
Patrick Kingsley and Ronen Bergman contributed reporting.
