Islamabad, Pakistan – The invites have all gone out. However when Pakistan hosts the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit subsequent month, there’s one visitor above all others whose presence or absence will likely be most felt: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
On August 29, Pakistan’s Ministry of International Affairs confirmed that Islamabad would host heads of presidency from the SCO on October 15-16, in what would mark the most important gathering of prime world leaders within the nation since a conclave of creating nations in 2012.
The next day, India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs acknowledged receiving the invitation from Pakistan. It has not indicated whether or not Modi would attend, however most analysts stay sceptical about the opportunity of the Indian chief, who not too long ago secured his third time period as prime minister, travelling to Pakistan amid persistently excessive tensions between the neighbours.
But there’s extra at stake than India-Pakistan relations: the rivalry between the South Asian neighbours has successfully crippled different multilateral organisations just like the South Asian Affiliation for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a regional grouping whose leaders haven’t met in a decade. May it now damage the SCO, a physique based and led by China and Russia that’s key to presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin as they undertaking their world ambitions?
Sure and no, say analysts. “[The SAARC] precedent raises issues for the SCO, the place the identical tensions may probably disrupt the organisation,” mentioned Taimur Khan, a analysis affiliate on the Institute of Strategic Research Islamabad (ISSI). “Nevertheless, the SCO’s stronger basis, led by world powers like China and Russia, affords a unique dynamic.”
That dynamic could be on check in the course of the October summit.
Will Modi attend?
The SCO is a political and safety bloc based in 2001 and contains Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Iran, the latest entrant.
Final 12 months, India was the host of assorted SCO-related occasions. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari grew to become the primary Pakistani overseas minister to travel to India in additional than 12 years for a gathering. However a spat between India’s Exterior Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Bhutto Zardari over the Kashmir difficulty and “terrorism” dominated media headlines across the conclave.
When India hosted the leaders’ summit in July 2023, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif made an internet look.
A 12 months later, the roles have reversed. However analysts say the probabilities of Modi visiting Pakistan for the primary time since a short cease in Lahore in December 2014 stay slim.
“It appears tough with the present state of the connection except there are some optimistic developments between now and the summit,” Sharat Sabharwal, a former Indian excessive commissioner to Pakistan, instructed Al Jazeera.
Equally, Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the USA, expressed scepticism about Modi’s potential go to to Islamabad.
“I very a lot doubt Prime Minister Modi will come for the SCO summit. The sort of detrimental indicators coming from [New] Delhi don’t recommend he’ll attend,” she mentioned.
“Bone of rivalry”
The first point of contention between the 2 nuclear-armed neighbours stays the picturesque Kashmir valley, a disputed area within the Himalayas.
The 2 nations have fought a number of wars over Kashmir, and since 1989, an armed rise up has continued in Indian-administered Kashmir, which India claims is sponsored by Pakistan — an allegation Islamabad denies.
In August 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist authorities revoked Article 370 of the Indian Structure, which had granted Kashmir partial autonomy, a transfer that Pakistan has vehemently protested.
Final week, throughout an occasion in New Delhi, Jaishankar declared that the “period of uninterrupted dialogue” with Pakistan was over.
“Actions have penalties, and so far as Jammu and Kashmir is anxious, Article 370 is finished [away with]. The problem now could be what sort of relationship we are able to ponder with Pakistan. We aren’t passive; whether or not occasions take a optimistic or detrimental route, we are going to react,” Jaishankar mentioned.
To Sabhrawal, Jaishankar’s assertion was a reaffirmation of the Modi authorities’s coverage of no dialogue within the face of what it calls “Pakistan-sponsored terror”.
“Nevertheless, he left the door barely open by saying India would react to Pakistan’s actions — whether or not optimistic or detrimental,” he mentioned. “If Pakistan continues to make its [Article 370’s] reversal a precondition for bilateral engagement, nothing will transfer ahead.”
SCO: A multilateral platform amid tensions
Although as we speak uncertainty lingers over Modi’s participation within the upcoming SCO summit, the grouping has up to now provided a platform for the rivals to rekindle talks.
In 2015, Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s then prime minister, and Modi, who was in his first stint as Indian premier, met within the Russian metropolis of Ufa on the sidelines of an SCO summit, the place the 2 engaged in a dialogue which resulted in a joint assertion issued by the 2 governments.
On Christmas that 12 months, Modi made an unannounced go to to Lahore, the place he was greeted by Sharif. It was the excessive level within the relationship over the previous decade — Pakistan was to host the SAARC summit in November 2016, and Modi had accepted the invitation.
However an assault by armed fighters on an Indian navy base in September 2016, through which at the least 19 Indian troopers had been killed, quashed any prospects of a detente. India introduced a boycott of the summit and was joined by another members of the grouping, which led to an indefinite postponement of the assembly.
India may not announce the same boycott of the SCO summit. However like Sabharwal and Lodhi, Christopher Clary, a non-resident fellow on the Washington, DC-based Stimson Heart, mentioned Jaishankar’s latest feedback recommend it’s unlikely that Modi will go to Pakistan.
“It will be stunning for Exterior Affairs Minister Jaishankar to offer a hawkish ‘actions have penalties’ soliloquy about Pakistan solely to have Prime Minister Modi attend an SCO summit in Pakistan. I don’t anticipate it to occur,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
No matter India decides, its rivalry with Pakistan is more likely to shadow the summit. If Modi skips the meet, the absence of a key chief robs Putin and Xi, particularly, of a photograph alternative that might underscore an try to undertaking a substitute for the West’s dominance of worldwide our bodies. However when India and Pakistan are at loggerheads, but in the identical room, their sparks can even overpower the whole lot else — as occurred throughout Bhutto Zardari’s visit to India in 2023.
Lodhi, who has additionally served as Pakistan’s envoy to the UK and the United Nations, mentioned she doesn’t anticipate the rivalry to have an effect on the SCO’s functioning.
“I don’t assume India-Pakistan tensions will have an effect on the SCO. In any case, bilateral points are usually not permitted to be raised at SCO conferences or summits,” she mentioned.
However SAARC was not meant to debate bilateral disputes both — and that didn’t reserve it from the bitterness in India-Pakistan ties.
Will the SCO go the SAARC method?
![Indian prime minister Narendra Modi (right) meeting his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of SCO summit in Russia city of Ufa in July 2015. [File photo: Handout/Prime Minister's Office India]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/11538994_710860112378029_28122566201952975_o-1725344864.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C512)
SAARC has not held any summit since 2014 following the cancellation of the Islamabad assembly in 2016.
That is solely due to the India-Pakistan rivalry, mentioned Khan of the ISSI, including it has “successfully paralysed” SAARC and decreased it to a largely symbolic entity. The opposite members of SAARC are Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan.
“Tensions between the 2 largest SAARC members [India and Pakistan] have led to boycotts, postponed summits and blocked initiatives, stopping significant progress,” he mentioned.
Prior to now, issues have emerged from inside the SCO over the potential for India-Pakistan tensions to hobble the grouping’s functioning.
Earlier than becoming a member of the grouping in 2017, India and Pakistan “dedicated to not deliver into the SCO household any bilateral contradictions and variations because the SCO just isn’t coping with settling disputable bilateral points, whether or not they’re associated to frame, water or different points in relations between sure member states”, the SCO’s then-Secretary-Basic Vladimir Norov instructed reporters in Beijing in 2019.
But there’s a elementary distinction between the SAARC and the SCO, mentioned Khan.
“SCO is led by two main world powers, China and Russia, which ensures a stronger, extra cohesive management construction. Not like SAARC, which fell sufferer to the bilateral tensions between its two largest members, the dynamics inside the SCO are extra advanced and resilient. The presence of China and Russia gives a stabilising affect that stops any single member from derailing the organisation with out penalties,” he mentioned.
Whereas tensions between India and Pakistan “may momentarily shift consideration away” from the SCO’s agenda, each nations have largely averted taking steps that derail the grouping’s priorities, Khan mentioned.
“The upcoming SCO assembly is essential as it should check whether or not the organisation can keep cohesion and proceed functioning successfully regardless of these bilateral challenges,” he mentioned.
