Why Europe is crossing its fingers as America heads to the polls

Good morning. In the present day, I write on how Europe is ready — or not less than is telling itself it has ready — for the US election, and our parliament correspondent has information on the most recent crackdown on Chinese language on-line retailers.

Judgment day

In 2020, European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen’s cupboard arrange a particular TV room within the EU’s headquarters to look at the US election outcomes roll in. This time, her aides can be sensible to ensure there’s house to cover behind the couch.

Context: America goes to the polls right this moment to elect their subsequent president, with Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris in a digital useless warmth, in accordance with a lot of the opinion polling. The greenback and US authorities debt yields fell yesterday in indicators traders had pared their bets on a Trump victory, as each candidates targeted their remaining hours of campaigning on the important swing state of Pennsylvania.

Months of pearl-clutching, prophecies and attempted preparations by the EU for a doable return of President Trump finish right this moment as polls open, in a race that might have seismic impacts on European defence, commerce and generations of transatlantic coverage.

“In 2016, we have been mainly hoping for the very best,” mentioned one senior EU diplomat, referring to Trump’s first election. “Now, not less than there was some preparation . . . in idea.”

That preparation has been executed by main EU capitals, but additionally contained in the fee. A small working group set up earlier this year has drawn up potential response methods to Trump, together with a pre-cooked trade deal to keep away from his menace to impose blanket import tariffs, and doable initiatives to partially offset any withdrawal of US military support to Europe.

However most senior officers across the EU are privately sceptical in regards to the tangible advantages of such work, apart from offering a theoretical consolation blanket ought to Trump win.

“We are saying we all know what he’s like,” mentioned a senior EU official concerned within the Trump-proofing talks. “[But] we don’t know what he’s like.”

Many additionally warning towards the complacency of decoding victory for Harris as a serious reduction for the EU. On structural, long-term points corresponding to Europe’s widening competitiveness hole with the US and its over-reliance on America for defence and safety, the EU must push forward with cures no matter who’s the following US president.

In line with inner assessments seen by the Monetary Occasions, the fee believes {that a} Harris administration would broadly proceed Joe Biden’s method, together with current mushy protectionist insurance policies and viewing China as the main geopolitical precedence, even when which means collateral injury towards Europe.

“Whoever wins these elections, we’ll work with Kamala Harris, we’ll work with Donald Trump. I’ve little doubt,” Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte mentioned yesterday.

Although Rutte supplied a quite sobering reference to again up his confidence: “It’s in our curiosity right here, but additionally in america’, as a result of they aren’t on this to repeat the error after the primary world battle of withdrawing from Europe.”

Gulp.

Chart du jour: Deindustrialisation

Over the previous three years, Europe’s largest financial system has slowly however steadily sunk into disaster. However what is going on now could be “unprecedented”.

Unboxing

It’s “nearly not possible to manage” the contents of parcels getting into the EU from China and elsewhere, the EU’s incoming commerce commissioner has admitted, because the bloc tries to raised police overseas on-line retailers, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Customers are more and more ordering low-cost items from web sites corresponding to China’s Temu and Shein. The European Fee has launched an investigation into Temu for allegedly promoting counterfeit goods.

Maroš Šefčovič advised a European parliament affirmation listening to yesterday that the EU needed to introduce a proposed new customs regime two years early, in 2026 quite than 2028, because the variety of packages hits 4bn this 12 months.

He mentioned some imports, most of which arrive by airplane, have been harmful and didn’t adjust to EU requirements.

When requested by Inexperienced MEP Anna Cavazzini what the EU ought to do in regards to the “unsafe and unlawful items flooding our market”, Šefčovič mentioned it was “nearly not possible to manage with out correct instruments”.

The deliberate reform would introduce an EU customs authority and centralise knowledge. It might additionally scrap a threshold exempting items price lower than €150 from duties. In 2023, 2.3bn in customs-exempt gadgets have been imported into the EU, in accordance with the fee.

However member states have opposed the brand new laws for years, over fears of transferring extra powers to Brussels. Šefčovič now desires them to agree a joint place within the first half of subsequent 12 months, so it will probably come into pressure the next 12 months.

He additionally mentioned nationwide enforcement groups for product security wanted extra coaching and co-ordination.

What to look at right this moment

1. EU finance ministers meet.

2. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome.

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