Within the wake of the US presidential election, worldwide leaders have been scrambling to organize for Donald Trump’s return to the world stage, because the divisive determine takes workplace for a second time period.
However in Latin America, the stakes are notably excessive. Trump has already signalled he might lean on Latin American international locations to stem the movement of cross-border migration and leverage the area’s financial ties to perform the targets of his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) platform, which requires stringent border safety and enhancing the home economic system.
Some indicators of stress have already begun to emerge, notably over a risk by Trump to impose 25-percent tariffs on Mexico.
That could be a negotiating tactic, however from bolstering help for right-wing allies to taking a harsher stance on immigration, some analysts count on a second Trump time period will usually be characterised by larger willingness to use strain to advance US priorities within the area.
Democracy and human rights
Argentina’s President Javier Milei is commonly in comparison with Trump. The 2 have already met because the November 5 US election, and a few within the president-elect’s circle see Milei’s cost-cutting insurance policies as a mannequin to observe.
However Trump’s win additionally has right-wing figures in different components of Latin America ecstatic.
After the election, Guatemalan particular prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche – an opponent of the nation’s progressive President Bernardo Arevalo – posted a photograph of himself on social media in a swimming pool carrying a “Trump 2024” hat and flashing a thumbs-up subsequent to a bottle of Don Julio tequila.
“[There are] 61 days till Donald Trump takes workplace within the US,” he mentioned in a separate put up, seemingly directed at his political rivals. “How nervous! If solely they knew what was coming.”
Who “they” are shouldn’t be explicitly spelled out, however Curruchiche has been a distinguished determine within the effort to roll again Arevalo’s 2023 election win.
Curruchiche was additionally sanctioned by the outgoing administration of Democratic US President Joe Biden for allegedly obstructing anti-corruption efforts.
Celebrando el triunfo de mi amigo Trump. Salud. pic.twitter.com/iSEtQvrLlh
— Rafael Curruchiche (@RCurruchic25741) November 9, 2024
In international locations like Guatemala and Brazil, Biden’s administration rapidly got here out in help of progressive leaders who received elections amid concern that right-wing forces would possibly reverse the vote by way of authorized manoeuvering or army pressure.
The area’s progressives have seen these strikes as a welcome departure from the US’s lengthy historical past of intervention on the facet of anti-democratic forces and dictators.
“One of many good issues in regards to the Biden administration has been a extra constant strategy to selling democracy within the area. There are some exceptions, however in locations like Guatemala they’ve stood agency on Arevalo’s election,” mentioned Adam Isacson, director for defence oversight on the Washington Workplace on Latin America (WOLA), a analysis organisation.
Now, Isacson believes Trump’s return to energy may shift momentum within the different route. With Biden leaving the White Home and Trump returning, some politicians with histories of election denialism, like Curruchiche in Guatemala and the right-wing ex-president Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, are cheering somebody they understand to be a kindred spirit.
“The far proper in Guatemala is sharpening its knives proper now, as a result of they know they’re going to have associates within the White Home,” Isacson mentioned.
Economic system
Throughout his presidential marketing campaign, Trump praised tariffs – taxes on imports used to lower international competitors – as a cure-all for the financial issues confronted by the US.
“Tariffs have all the time been Trump’s most well-liked device. So these are forthcoming, I’ve little doubt,” mentioned Juan Carlos Baker, who served as Mexico’s vice minister for international commerce between 2016 and 2018.
Past their potential impression at residence, Trump sees tariffs as a helpful technique of pressuring international locations to adjust to US calls for on a wide range of points.
“This would possibly imply saying that if Mexico doesn’t take motion on migration, medication or no matter else, some harsh commerce selections shall be made,” mentioned Baker.
He added that Trump may additionally wield financial leverage in opposition to international locations that pursue nearer relations with China, which has stepped up commerce with Latin America in recent times. Trump may also think about larger use of import quotas to protect US industries from abroad competitors.
“It’s straightforward to think about him telling a rustic like Argentina that they must export much less beef, or lower off Chinese language provides of some product, and in the event that they don’t do that then he’ll ensure the IMF [International Monetary Fund] performs hardball with them when it’s time to reexamine their excellent debt,” Baker defined.
Crime and nationwide safety
The US has an extended historical past of involvement in problems with crime and policing in Latin America, typically within the type of help for state forces or selling a “exhausting hand” strategy to issues like drug trafficking.
With crime a problem of rising salience within the area, these pushing for a militarised strategy with much less regard for civil liberties might have a sympathetic ear within the White Home.
Noah Bullock, the chief director of the rights group Cristosal in El Salvador, pointed to that nation’s President Nayib Bukele for example.
“Bukele has tried to place himself as an ideological associate of key members within the MAGA motion and want to place himself as a part of a bloc of far-right international locations in Latin America that join with the Trump administration,” mentioned Bullock.
In El Salvador, Bukele has received widespread reputation for cracking down on gangs by way of huge reveals of pressure, utilizing safety forces to brush up and imprison 1000’s of individuals on suspicion of gang affiliation with little due course of.
Bukele – who as soon as described himself as “the world’s coolest dictator” — has additionally suspended key civil liberties and expanded regulation enforcement powers.
Whereas the coverage has successfully combatted the affect of the gangs, allegations of rights abuses are widespread, and critics like Bullock say the distinctive measures are additionally being used to focus on dissent.
Although the Biden administration has expressed some concern for the state of civil rights in El Salvador, its criticism has been muted and collaboration with the federal government has continued. However Bullock worries that pattern may worsen with Trump again in workplace.
“I believe it’s fairly clear that if the US doesn’t make respect for political and civil rights [and] minimal requirements in opposition to torture, compelled disappearances and arbitrary detention a precondition for partnership, there shall be little incentive for international locations like El Salvador to uphold these requirements,” he mentioned.
Regional engagement
Whereas some leaders are wanting ahead to potential collaboration with Trump, the president-elect’s brash fashion and frequent use of threats could possibly be a reason for stress with others.
Trump and a number of other figures more likely to play a task in his administration have recommended that the US may perform army strikes in Mexico concentrating on drug cartels, a transfer that might make sure you spark fierce backlash.
Whereas that proposal was as soon as seen as bluster, Renata Segura, a Latin America analyst on the nonprofit Worldwide Disaster Group, says that Mexico would see such strikes as an alarming breach of its sovereignty.
“This went from being a fringe opinion inside the Republican Social gathering to one thing that has been acknowledged repeatedly and needs to be taken critically, and I believe the Mexicans are taking it very critically,” mentioned Segura.
“I don’t assume Mexico goes to take this type of factor evenly. Mexico has a powerful sense of sovereignty and isn’t going to roll over and do no matter Trump needs,” she added.
Segura additionally says that Trump will possible prioritise blocking migration from international locations experiencing violence and instability.
However, she added, he might have little curiosity in efforts to handle root causes.
Segura pointed to Haiti, the place highly effective armed gangs, some with ties to the nation’s political and enterprise elite, have exerted growing management over massive stretches of the nation. An estimated 85 p.c of the capital Port-au-Prince is at the moment below the management of the gangs, in accordance with figures cited by the United Nations.
Violence in Haiti spiked within the wake of the 2021 assassination of former President Jovenel Moise, and the nation remains to be struggling to carry elections and implement democratic norms.
For Segura, the Caribbean nation ranks “prime of the listing of worries” throughout a brand new Trump presidency.
“Haiti has been going by way of a protracted political and safety disaster since 2021, and the US has been one of many main voices in making an attempt to channel the efforts of the worldwide group,” she mentioned.
That has included monetary help for a UN-backed contingent of Kenyan police despatched to Haiti to assist with safety. That effort – controversial given the fraught historical past of international interventions in Haiti – has struggled up to now to make an impression.
Segura expects that the Trump administration will possible finish the US position as the principle supporter of that mission. Whereas she acknowledged that US intervention shouldn’t be essentially a constructive, she identified that points may come up because of a US withdrawal.
“Up to now the US has been the one nation to place their cash the place their mouth is, and Haiti could possibly be left by itself if the US decides to disengage,” she defined.
