Blue Jays place gamers arrived at camp Tuesday morning for the staff’s first full-squad exercise of the spring, and celebrity first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set Tuesday as a deadline for extension discussions with the membership earlier than his ultimate season below contract, main as much as free company. That deadline has now handed, and Guerrero advised reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that no settlement was reached. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Guerrero plans to keep away from negotiations through the season and now expects to achieve free company. Nonetheless, Hazel Mae reported that Guerrero left the door open to signing with the Blue Jays in the event that they introduced a “real looking” provide.
Guerrero, nonetheless simply 25 till March 16, is likely one of the most completed younger gamers within the league and is more likely to enter free company as probably the most sought-after participant accessible. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award and first base and two Silver Slugger awards below his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his profession. That sort of offensive expertise will all the time be engaging to golf equipment in free company, however what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his mixture of youth and ceiling.
Few hitters within the sport can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 marketing campaign was second solely to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 dwelling runs had been tied with Salvador Perez for probably the most within the majors that yr and his .401 on-base share led the American League whereas trailing solely Juan Soto and Bryce Harper within the NL. Steps again offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions concerning whether or not that otherworldly efficiency may be a fluke, however Guerrero squashed these considerations by roughly repeating his 2021 heroics this previous season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 video games for the Jays this previous yr, hitting “simply” 30 homers within the course of however making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout fee that was the bottom of his profession. Simply 9 certified MLB hitters struck out much less typically than Guerrero in 2024, and amongst that group solely Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer marketing campaign had been capable of prime Guerrero’s .221 remoted slugging share.
Reaching free company on the heels of his age-26 season ought to make Guerrero all of the extra engaging in free company come November. Guerrero will hit the open market only one yr older than Juan Soto was throughout his personal free company this previous winter, and that younger age was essential for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765M over the following 15 years and will max out at greater than $800M. That huge payday got here regardless of Soto being a restricted defender within the outfield corners who doesn’t present substantial worth on the basepaths. Whereas Soto is arguably in a category all his personal as a hitter, together with his profession 158 wRC+ practically matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his report payday continues to be nice information for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no higher comparability for Soto within the league than Guerrero at his peak.
On condition that, it’s straightforward to think about the bidding for Guerrero’s companies surpassing half of a billion {dollars}. That appears to be proper round the place Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as reports concerning his asking worth have advised he was in search of north of $450M. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a easy “No” when requested if the Blue Jays had put forth a suggestion that was near his worth level, and given Guerrero mentioned earlier this winter that Toronto’s provide to him previous to Soto’s take care of the Mets sat at $340M it’s laborious to argue together with his evaluation until the membership introduced their provide considerably greater over the course of the offseason.
Given the hole between the Guerrero’s rumored calls for and the provide he mentioned the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the perimeters didn’t work out a deal. That’s mirrored in a poll of MLBTR readers final month, the place simply 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would signal long-term with the membership earlier than Tuesday’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d nonetheless prefer to be a Blue Jay for all times at the same time as he went on to notice that Toronto will now need to compete with 29 different golf equipment for his companies on the open market. Alternatively, he additionally famous (as relayed by Matheson) his want to win a World Collection championship together with his subsequent membership. That want to win might harm the Blue Jays’ odds of preserving Guerrero, as they completed lifeless final in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 report. They seem like longshots for the postseason this yr as properly after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber golf equipment whereas the Crimson Sox put collectively a powerful offseason that noticed them add a number of star gamers in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.
As for the entrance workplace’s perspective, membership GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment {that a} deal didn’t get accomplished, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasise that the membership “labored very laborious” of their efforts to return collectively on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the group’s half to maintain their celebrity within the fold is “nonetheless there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics concerning numbers and contract affords however described their provide to Guerrero as one that may’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of many highest-paid gamers” in baseball if signed (video link via Mae). Atkins additionally made clear that the membership’s lack of ability to get a deal accomplished with Guerrero was not a matter of sources, although that’s hardly a shock given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the previous two winters.
Going ahead, the Blue Jays determine to proceed making an attempt to win throughout Guerrero’s ultimate yr of membership management. They’ve lengthy resisted the potential of commerce talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166M so as to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free company this winter whereas including one other $96.5M in commerce by taking over the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it appears unlikely that they might change course now quite than push in for 2025 and hope they will persuade Guerrero to return subsequent offseason. It’s doable that they might revisit the potential of dealing Guerrero on the commerce deadline this summer time in the event that they’ve fallen utterly out of the playoff image by then, nonetheless, and if shopped Guerrero can be probably the most impactful rental moved at a commerce deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.
