Ukraine’s diplomatic state of affairs was upended throughout the previous week, as its primary ally, america, reversed a number of positions.
US President Donald Trump introduced on February 12 that he was starting direct talks with Russia to finish the struggle, overturning his predecessor’s promise that there can be “nothing about Ukraine with out Ukraine”.
On the identical day, US Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed Russian diplomatic language invoking “realism”, when he instructed Ukraine Defence Contact Group companions in Brussels that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic goal,” and that “america doesn’t consider that NATO membership for Ukraine is a practical consequence of a negotiated settlement.”
Eventual NATO membership has been a US promise to Ukraine since 2008, and the US has, all through the struggle, supported a restoration of the border Russia recognised with Ukraine in 1991.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius referred to as the one-sided concessions “clumsy” and “a mistake”.
Worse was to come back
On Tuesday, as Trump’s negotiating staff arrived in Riyadh to start talks, Trump blamed Ukraine for beginning the struggle and implied it had stolen support, scary an offended response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Right now, I heard, ‘Oh, we weren’t invited’ [to talks in Riyadh]. Nicely, you’ve been there for 3 years. You must have ended it three years in the past. You must have by no means began it,” Trump instructed reporters at Mar-a-Lago.
The complete-scale struggle began in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Trump mentioned Zelenskyy’s approval ranking was at 4 %, and that he’d “by no means seen an accounting” of what he alleged was $350bn given by the US to Ukraine.
The Kyiv Worldwide Institute of Sociology, which conducts nationwide surveys in Ukraine, polled Zelenskyy’s approval ranking at 57 % this month.
Based on the Kiel Institute for the World Economic system, which tracks navy, monetary and humanitarian support to Ukraine, america has donated $114bn and the European Union $132bn over three years.
Zelenskyy instructed reporters in Kyiv the subsequent day that Trump had been caught in “an internet of disinformation”.
Trump responded with extra criticism of Zelenskyy, posting on X {that a} “modestly profitable comic”, had develop into “a dictator with out elections” who had “executed a horrible job”.
Europe, too, has been shocked by the US authorities’s stance.
US Vice President JD Vance scolded Europeans for limiting free speech and curbing democracy in an deal with to the Munich Safety Convention on Friday, suggesting that extreme-right events shunned by mainstream politicians have been the true expression of the folks’s will.
“We see in America a president who admires autocratic programs,” mentioned Germany’s subsequent chancellor-presumptive, Friedrich Merz, and a “vice chairman who tells us find out how to run our democracy”.
“We’re now not positive if the People nonetheless stand by our aspect as they did after 1945,” he mentioned.
‘Fast repair is a unclean deal’
Ukrainian politicians have additionally expressed reservations about NATO’s credibility as an alliance.
Different European leaders slammed the Riyadh course of as a sham.
“Any fast repair is a unclean deal … any deal behind our backs gained’t work,” mentioned European Union international coverage chief Kaja Kallas on X.
“Peace will solely come by means of energy,” mentioned German International Minister Annalena Baerbock. “This requires powerful and long-term safety ensures for Ukraine, a robust NATO and progress in Ukraine’s accession negotiations with the European Union,” she mentioned.
Zelenskyy twice prior to now week rejected US proposals to formalise US-Ukrainian financial relations as a result of they lacked safety ensures. Hegseth offered him with a payback plan based mostly on the exploitation of Ukraine’s mineral wealth on February 12, and Vance introduced it again to Munich on Friday.
That plan gave the impression to be based mostly on what Trump mentioned in an interview on February 10. “I instructed [Ukraine] that I would like the equal of, like, $500bn price of uncommon earth, and so they’ve primarily agreed to do this,” Trump instructed Fox reporter Bret Baier.
Zelenskyy estimated that Ukraine had obtained $98.5bn in US navy and monetary help.
“However one can not depend as much as $500bn and say, ‘Give us again $500bn in minerals.’ That’s not a severe dialogue,” Zelenskyy mentioned on Wednesday.
No seat for Ukraine
Moscow has been bullish because the talks in Riyadh have been introduced.
Deputy chairman of Russia’s Nationwide Safety Council Dmitry Medvedev on February 12 upheld Moscow’s defiant stance towards swapping any of the Russian land Ukraine holds in Kursk with any of the Ukrainian land Russia holds.
“The proposals of Ukrainians in regards to the ‘change of territories’ are nonsense, the one option to heal is to ‘really feel like Russians once more’, Dmitry Medvedev wrote in his Telegram channel,” mentioned International Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov went a step additional on Sunday, denying that Ukraine had any seat on the negotiating desk as a result of it lacked sovereignty.
“That nation can not actually reply for its phrases,” Peskov mentioned in an interview on Russia Right now. “Every time it’s essential to make a sure adjustment when negotiating with them, for his or her deficit of sovereignty and the deficit of belief in them. Which won’t go wherever.”
On Monday, Russia’s everlasting UN consultant, Vasily Nebenzya, insisted on the phrases for peace that Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined final June. Ukraine ought to give up the components of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson that Moscow doesn’t management, he mentioned, as a result of it had “irrevocably misplaced these areas, abjure NATO membership and stay impartial.
Moscow at present controls an estimated two-thirds of Donetsk, three-quarters of Zaporizhia and Kherson, and 99 % of Luhansk.
Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service declassified a report on February 11 saying Russia was rebuilding its navy in preparation for a struggle towards NATO, with the backing of China, Iran and North Korea.
Estonia’s Ministry of International Affairs printed its annual intelligence report the next day, agreeing that Russia was making ready for a struggle with NATO, and saying that the size and consequence of the Ukraine struggle can be figuring out components in whether or not that wider struggle was pursued.
The Institute of the Research of Battle, a Washington-based suppose tank, printed a report on Russia’s financial, industrial and manpower weaknesses.
“Russia will possible face various materiel, manpower, and financial points in 12 to 18 months if Ukrainian forces proceed to inflict harm on Russian forces on the battlefield on the present fee,” it mentioned.
Russia’s economy was affected by “elevated and unsustainable struggle spending, rising inflation, important labor shortages, and reductions in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund,” it discovered, concluding, “The US can use the large challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to safe important concessions.”
