As the US presidential election approaches on November 5, polls present Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump locked in a good, too-close-to-call race.
However whereas the US election is about who the American individuals need to see main them, the nation’s outsized affect means the competition is being watched carefully in capitals world wide.
So who would numerous world leaders need to see within the White Home?
Vladimir Putin, Russia
Whereas the Russian chief has urged — maybe in jest — that he would possibly want Harris as president, many indicators level in direction of Putin truly favouring a Trump win.
“Putin would love Trump as president for numerous causes,” Timothy Ash, an affiliate fellow within the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham Home, informed Al Jazeera.
“First, Putin thinks Trump is gentle on Russia and can roll over to provide him an awesome deal on Ukraine – chopping army help to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Russia,” he mentioned.
“I believe Putin seems to be at Trump and sees a mirror picture of himself, an authoritarian, sociopath. He probably thinks he understands Trump,” Ash added.
Moreover, Putin “hates” the system of Western liberal market democracy, and the Russian chief “thinks Trump will proceed the place he left off in Trump 1.0 in sowing disunity and chaos”, undermining establishments like NATO and the European Union.
Nonetheless, Russian analysts say no matter who wins, Moscow officers consider the US aversion in direction of Russia will stay, the Anadolu information company reported.
Putin had beforehand been outspoken about his ideas on US presidential politics and has made endorsements for candidates time and time once more since 2004.
Earlier than the 2016 election, Putin talked Trump as much as reporters throughout an annual information convention. “He’s a vibrant and proficient individual with none doubt,” he mentioned.
In July 2016, the US intelligence neighborhood accused Putin of election interference with the goal of serving to Trump defeat Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton. In 2020, a bipartisan US Senate report found that Russia had meddled within the 2016 election. US intelligence additionally alleged that Russia meddled within the 2020 election.
On July 9 this yr, a US intelligence official – with out naming Trump – indicated to reporters that Russia favoured Trump within the 2024 race.
“Now we have not noticed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from previous elections, given the position the US is taking part in with regard to Ukraine and broader coverage towards Russia,” the official from the Workplace of the Director of Nationwide Intelligence (ODNI) mentioned.
In September, Putin made a tongue-in-cheek reference to Harris, describing her as having an “expressive and infectious chuckle” which, he mentioned, signifies “she’s doing effectively” and perhaps wouldn’t impose sanctions on Russia.
“I don’t know if I’m insulted or he did me a favour,” Trump responded at a marketing campaign rally on the identical day as Putin made the wry remarks.
In October, veteran reporter Bob Woodward alleged in his new guide that Trump had made not less than seven phone calls to Putin since he left the presidency in January 2021. These allegations had been rejected by Trump’s marketing campaign and by Trump himself. “He’s a storyteller. A foul one. And he’s misplaced his marbles,” Trump mentioned about Woodward to ABC information.
Later in October, through the closing of the BRICS summit, Putin said Trump “spoke about his need to do all the things to finish the battle in Ukraine. I believe he’s being honest.”
Trump has been important of the help that the US sends to Ukraine towards Russia’s battle and says he’ll promptly finish the battle if elected.
Xi Jinping, China
Xi Jinping has not publicly made an endorsement.
As with Russia, each Democrats and Republicans have taken a troublesome stance in direction of China. Throughout his presidency, Trump began a trade war with China, imposing tariffs on $250bn of Chinese language imports in 2018. China hit again, putting tariffs on $110bn of US imports.
It doesn’t look like he’ll again down from that if elected, however Democrats might additionally rally towards China’s rising affect worldwide.
When Biden turned president, he kept Trump’s tariffs in place. Moreover, on September 13 this yr, the Biden administration introduced will increase in tariffs on sure Chinese language-made merchandise. If Harris wins, she is predicted to remain per Biden’s coverage in direction of China.
Neither Trump nor Harris have gone into element about what their plan of action can be in direction of China if they’re elected.
Regardless of Trump’s commerce battle, he has boasted of his good relationship with Xi. After Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 14, he mentioned world leaders had reached out to him. “I obtained alongside very effectively with President Xi. He’s an awesome man, wrote me a ravishing word the opposite day when he heard about what occurred,” Trump informed a rally.
Nonetheless, behind the scenes, Chinese language officers could also be barely leaning in direction of Harris, NBC information quoted Jia Qingguo, the previous dean of the Faculty of Worldwide Research at Peking College, as saying.
“The irony is, Xi in all probability desires Harris, as does Iran,” Ash informed Al Jazeera whereas speaking about Putin.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly endorsed both candidate. Nonetheless, it’s broadly believed that he leans in direction of a Trump win.
Netanyahu and Trump had relationship through the former US president’s first time period. In 2019, on the Israeli-American Council, Trump said: “The Jewish state has by no means had a greater good friend within the White Home than your president.”
The emotions had been mutual. Netanyahu, in a 2020 assertion, mentioned that Trump was “the best good friend that Israel has ever had within the White Home”.
Relations between Trump and Netanyahu soured after Biden was elected. When Biden was sworn in, Netanyahu congratulated him. Trump mentioned he felt betrayed by this, in an interview.
Nonetheless, the Israeli PM has made makes an attempt to rekindle the previous bond. Throughout a US go to in July this yr, Netanyahu visited Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. Axios reported that an ally of Netanyahu even travelled to Mar-a-Lago earlier than the precise assembly of the 2 leaders, to learn passages from Netanyahu’s guide, praising Trump.
The Israeli PM additionally posted a video on social media expressing shock in regards to the assassination try on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania in July, which was reposted by Trump on his social media platform, Fact Social.
On the identical time, the Biden administration has proven unwavering diplomatic and army help to Netanyahu’s authorities amid Israel’s battle on Gaza, the place the loss of life toll of Palestinians stands at 43,061 in response to UN humanitarian company OCHA as of October 29.
Because the begin of Israel’s battle on Gaza on October 7 final yr – following a Hamas-led assault on villages and military outposts in southern Israel – Biden’s authorities has despatched billions of dollars in army support to Israel.
Final October 4, Biden told a information convention that he doesn’t know whether or not Netanyahu is purposefully holding up a ceasefire deal in Gaza, regardless of experiences and hypothesis that the Israeli PM may need been holding up an settlement on goal, probably to affect the US election consequence.
“No administration has helped Israel greater than I’ve. None. None. None. And I believe Bibi ought to keep in mind that,” Biden mentioned through the information convention, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.
European and NATO leaders
A majority of European leaders want Harris because the US president.
“I do know her effectively, she will surely be president,” Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany informed reporters.
Trump has threatened to depart NATO a number of occasions. Nonetheless, Politico reported that his nationwide safety advisers and defence specialists say it’s unlikely he’ll exit the alliance.
Regardless, his complaints about NATO stay. It’s anticipated that he would need NATO allies to extend their defence spending targets.
In February, Trump stirred the pot with allies in Europe by suggesting he would inform Russia to assault NATO allies whom he thought-about “delinquent”.
Moreover, Trump’s victory might imply much less alignment with European nations on collaboration for renewable vitality initiatives.
It’s because Trump has campaigned for extra fossil gasoline manufacturing to allow the US to scale back reliance on international vitality imports. “We’ll drill, child, drill,” he informed the Republican national convention whereas accepting the occasion’s nomination in July.
Alternatively, Harris is prone to proceed with Biden’s Inflation Discount Act and clear vitality transition plans, creating alternatives to collaborate with Europe. Nonetheless, Harris has additionally been accused of creating a U-turn on sustainability guarantees reminiscent of fracking.
Throughout her 2019 run for the presidential primaries, Harris had promised to ban fracking, a way of extracting oil and gasoline by drilling into the earth – which environmental campaigners say is especially damaging because it consumes giant quantities of water and releases greenhouse gasoline methane. Trump had criticised her for this promise.
Throughout the presidential debate between Harris and Trump in Pennsylvania in September, nonetheless, Harris mentioned: “I cannot ban fracking, I’ve not banned fracking as vice chairman.”
Narendra Modi, India
Whereas India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a close relationship with Trump through the latter’s presidency, Modi was additionally one of many first world leaders to congratulate Biden on his 2020 election victory.
Congratulations @JoeBiden in your spectacular victory! Because the VP, your contribution to strengthening Indo-US relations was important and invaluable. I stay up for working carefully collectively as soon as once more to take India-US relations to higher heights. pic.twitter.com/yAOCEcs9bN
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) November 7, 2020
“I don’t consider that Modi has a robust choice for one candidate over one other,” Chietigj Bajpaee, senior analysis fellow for South Asia, Asia-Pacific Programme on the UK-based suppose tank Chatham Home, informed Al Jazeera.
“There’s a excessive diploma of bipartisan consensus in Washington on deepening relations with India and viewing it as a long-term strategic associate – arguably as a lot consensus as there’s on viewing China as a long-term strategic rival,” Bajpaee wrote in an article for Chatham Home.
He wrote that the three key pillars of US engagement with India are that India is the world’s largest democracy, that the US sees India as a bulwark towards China and India’s probably rising economic system.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Washington, DC-based Wilson Middle suppose tank’s South Asia Institute informed Al Jazeera that the Indian authorities will weigh the professionals and cons for each candidates.
In the case of Trump, “there could also be a way in New Delhi that that may be factor for India as a result of there could also be a notion that Trump wouldn’t make a fuss about inner issues in India, together with human rights points,” Kugelman mentioned, including that regardless of this, the federal government of India can be involved about Trump’s “unpredictable” governing fashion.
“Whereas Donald Trump is extra acquainted to Modi from his first time period in workplace, a Kamala Harris presidency gives a level of continuity from the present Biden administration,” Bajpaee informed Al Jazeera.
Underneath Biden, ties between the US and India deepened when it comes to defence, know-how and economic system. Biden made India a Main Defence Companion, regardless of India not being a proper army ally and its reliance on Russia for army help.
In Could 2022, on the sidelines of the Quad summit in Tokyo, India and the US introduced an Initiative for Important and Rising Applied sciences (iCET), to boost cooperation in AI, quantum computing and different technological advances.
Earlier than Modi’s go to to India in September this yr, Trump known as Modi “improbable” however, on the identical time, known as India an “abuser of import tariffs”.
South Korea
South Korea is a key ally of the US within the Indo-Pacific. Whereas the nation’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, has not explicitly endorsed a candidate, the connection between South Korea and the US has flourished below Biden.
Commentary revealed in September by US suppose tank Brookings mentioned that through the Trump administration, “South Koreans had been dismayed by costs they weren’t contributing sufficient to their defence and to the maintenance of US forces, regardless of offering the majority of front-line fight forces towards North Korea.”
Alternatively, “the Biden administration has performed little to handle the North Korean nuclear risk. It has, nonetheless, targeted on strengthening bilateral and trilateral ties between Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul,” Edward Howell, a lecturer in worldwide relations on the College of Oxford, informed Al Jazeera.
Howell mentioned this was made evident on the Camp David Summit of 2023, in addition to in presidential-level conferences between Biden and Yoon Suk Yeol.
Howell added that South Korea will need to be sure that US help for it doesn’t wither below the following president “at a time when the East Asian area faces not simply the specter of a nuclear North Korea, however an more and more coercive and belligerent China”.
Japan
For US ally Japan, a Trump win could imply he’ll shift focus to home coverage and scale back collaboration with Japan, improve tariffs, in addition to anticipate Japan to extend army spending, evaluation revealed by Japanese web site Nippon Communications Basis says.
Nonetheless, Japanese authorities officers have shaped relationships with officers from the final Trump administration, together with Invoice Hagerty, who’s a former ambassador to Tokyo and is seen as a favorite for secretary of state, the evaluation by Kotani Tetsuo says.
Alternatively, whereas a Harris administration would imply extra constant coverage with the Biden administration, new relationships must be shaped with the officers on Harris’s group.
Australia
For US ally Australia, “a Trump victory would elevate many questions,” Ben Doherty, a reporter from Australia wrote for The Guardian.
Doherty added that many in Australia consider Trump is prone to withdraw from the Paris Agreement if he’s re-elected, which might weaken the affect of the casual local weather coalition, the Umbrella Group, which Australia is part of.
Australia additionally shares a commerce relationship with China and a Trump win might imply commerce battle with China, which may very well be detrimental to Australia’s economic system.
