On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long-awaited assembly with US President Donald Trump in an try to influence him to proceed US help for Ukraine. The encounter was seemingly not what the Ukrainian head of state had anticipated.
Trump and US Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelenskyy in entrance of TV cameras for being “disrespectful” and for refusing to embrace their initiative for a ceasefire with Russia.
It’s evident that Zelenskyy won’t make a return to Washington throughout Trump’s presidency. It’s also evident that US stress on Ukraine will considerably escalate within the following weeks and months, as Trump presses Kyiv to make vital concessions to Russia in return for peace.
Even earlier than the showdown on the White Home, the Trump administration was questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and pushing for presidential elections to be held. Holding a rushed election with the only real function of eliminating the incumbent, nevertheless, might spell catastrophe for the nation.
Earlier than Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, approval ratings for Zelenskyy’s presidency were as little as 28 % and 11 % for his get together. Russia’s full-scale invasion despatched Ukrainians rallying behind the president and his reputation reached document highs. Nevertheless, over the previous two years, his approval scores have been on a constant decline. Based on polls, belief in Zelenskyy fell from 54 % in April 2024 to 49 % in January – not as little as Trump has claimed, however a far cry from his 90 % score in Might 2022.
A number of components have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining reputation, together with rampant corruption beneath his administration and the rising fatigue from the continued struggle.
The Ukrainian president – effectively conscious of his vulnerability – has made clear that he’s not snug with competitors. For him, the stakes are excessive as a result of if he had been to lose a re-election bid, he might face prosecution for corruption or numerous types of retribution from his rivals. The polls are already displaying that if elections had been to be held instantly, he would lose.
A formidable challenger to Zelenskyy has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star basic who served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces till February 2024. Polls present that Zaluzhnyi – if he had been to run in a presidential vote – would defeat Zelenskyy. Public belief in him is among the many highest and stood at 72 % in January.
Though Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by the president on the heels of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, there have been speculations that his reputation in Ukraine could have additionally been an element. The overall was despatched overseas to function the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK – a place he nonetheless occupies.
Thus far, Zaluzhnyi has not declared an intention to run, though there are not any ensures he wouldn’t change his thoughts. If he stays out, different army figures, akin to Kyrylo Budanov, could step in.
Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, has a public belief score of 62 %. He just lately disappeared from the general public eye after a 12 months of high-profile media appearances. Rumours have unfold that Zelenskyy’s workplace deliberate to take away him, leading to his sudden retreat. However he could effectively reappear as soon as the marketing campaign begins.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk might change into a possible darkish horse. In a rustic the place a former comic grew to become president, a victorious athlete doesn’t seem to be an unlikely contender. Though he has not made any political ambitions public, he has began showing in polls and his score presently stands at 60 %.
Then there’s former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval scores, however stays a harmful rival to Zelenskyy. Since 2019, greater than 130 felony instances have been launched in opposition to him – together with one accusing him of treason for approving a coal-supplying scheme from the Russian-occupied Donbas area.
Poroshenko is an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and isn’t hiding his political ambitions. He has travelled to the US and met with Trump’s crew. In February, when he tried to go to the Munich Safety Convention, he was not allowed. He now faces state-imposed sanctions on “nationwide safety grounds”, which embrace an asset freeze.
The message of the sanctions is evident: Poroshenko will probably be eradicated from the presidential race earlier than it even begins. On this context of perceived political persecution, different potential challengers haven’t come ahead, being too afraid to run.
There was rising concern over Zelenskyy’s dealing with of opposition figures, however thus far, no sturdy public rebuke has emerged from his allies. After the confrontation on the White Home, European leaders expressed help for him. This has given Zelenskyy a short lived increase at dwelling, however it’s unclear how lengthy it might maintain.
Aside from the bitter political rivalries and retribution, the Ukrainian political scene can also be marked by persevering with divisions inside society. The struggle has intensified feelings and break up the nation proper down the center, making a unstable state of affairs.
The ultranationalists not solely maintain sway amongst sure components of the inhabitants but in addition are empowered as energetic contributors within the struggle. There may be additionally nonetheless a portion of society that leans pro-Russian and doesn’t need the battle to proceed.
If an election is imposed from overseas on this unstable state of affairs, it might show extra catastrophic than Russia’s invasion or the lack of Ukraine’s industrial heartlands. The hazard isn’t simply {that a} third of the inhabitants could be unable to vote and the election’s legitimacy could also be in query.
The actual menace is that the vote might ignite a battle of all in opposition to all earlier than a single poll is solid. An incumbent who fears dropping a re-election bid and political rivals who’re hellbent on regaining relevance could resort to exploiting societal divisions. The army and safety businesses might be pressured to behave, which provides to a doubtlessly explosive combine.
If presidential elections can dangerously polarise societies at peace – as now we have seen in the USA – they’ll do a lot worse in occasions of struggle. A rushed election in Ukraine that serves the political plans of a overseas energy is definitely a recipe for catastrophe. A vote ought to be held as soon as there’s a sturdy ceasefire that permits for all Ukrainians to solid their votes with out worry of the prospect of polarisation and battle.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
