Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda will hit global growth, economists tell FT polls

Immediately’s agenda: “Terrorism” in New Orleans; shipowners swap to smaller vessels; gold set to rise increased; what to observe this yr; and FT critics choose the most well liked tickets of 2025

Good morning, and blissful new yr. We begin 2025 by asking greater than 220 economists how development will likely be affected by Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.

What’s the impression of ‘Maganomics’? Whereas his precise plans are nonetheless unclear, most respondents anticipate the president-elect’s protectionist insurance policies to overshadow the advantages of different parts. Many economists within the US additionally consider the brand new Trump time period will spur inflation and make the Federal Reserve extra cautious about chopping rates of interest.

Nonetheless, most economists — together with these on the IMF, the OECD and the European Fee — forecast stronger development within the US than in Europe in 2025. One analyst stated Trump’s plans, which embody threats of blanket tariffs and mass deportations, could convey some short-term development however “on the expense of a worldwide slowdown which then will come again and harm the US in a while”.

Why it issues: For the Eurozone, the principle concern is about manufacturing, with the automotive business in Germany — the area’s greatest economic system — particularly in danger. Trump’s menace of a 60 per cent levy on China may additionally elevate the prospect of Beijing flooding the area with low-cost merchandise. One economist stated the UK, although seen as higher insulated from tariffs, may very well be uncovered to a “second-round impression” ought to tariffs weigh on Eurozone development.

“The Trump administration will likely be an ‘unpredictability machine’ which is able to dissuade enterprise and households from taking long-term selections with ease,” stated PwC UK’s chief economist. “This will inevitably have an economic cost.”

Be part of FT consultants on January 23 for a subscriber-only webinar, as they talk about what Trump’s return to the White Home means for America and the world. Register for free here. And right here’s what else I’m preserving tabs on immediately:

• Financial information: The Eurozone, US, France and Germany have manufacturing buying managers’ indices, as does the UK, which additionally has the Nationwide house value index.

• Monetary markets: Buying and selling resumes within the US, UK and different international locations after yesterday’s break.

For a preview of key occasions in 2025, try the latest edition of our Week Ahead newsletter.

5 extra prime tales

1. The FBI is investigating an “act of terrorism” after a person drove a pick-up truck into a big crowd within the coronary heart of New Orleans yesterday, killing no less than 15 folks and injuring 35. US President Joe Biden stated authorities have been additionally investigating the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outdoors the Trump lodge in Las Vegas to see if the 2 incidents have been associated. Read the full story.

2. Shipowners are transferring on from the period of ordering ever-larger vessels and switching to smaller crafts as an alternative, in keeping with business information. The change is being prompted by the rerouting of world commerce from China to ports elsewhere in Asia, and the disruption is only expected to continue with Trump’s return to the White Home this month.

3. The value of gold is about to climb additional in 2025 though the tempo of positive aspects is prone to gradual after final yr’s bumper 27 per cent rally. Analysts surveyed by the Monetary Occasions anticipate gold to achieve about $2,795 per troy ounce by the top of the yr, or about 7 per cent above present ranges. Here’s why the price of the yellow metal is likely to rise.

4. Unique: Job losses at European automotive half suppliers greater than doubled in 2024 because the slowdown within the continent’s automotive business hit the fortunes of its manufacturing provide chain. Job creation has additionally slowed and there have been more than 58,000 net job losses across the industry in Europe since 2020.

5. Russian fuel flows by Ukraine stopped within the early hours of yesterday after a transit deal between the 2 international locations expired within the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The pipeline was one of many final two routes nonetheless carrying Russian fuel to Europe, almost three years into the full-scale struggle. EU international locations will lose about 5 per cent of gas imports in the middle of winter.

What to observe in 2025

Monetary Occasions reporters take into account the rise of “sovereign” synthetic intelligence, the prospects for electrical automotive gross sales and whether or not the “masters of the universe” will likely be investing your pension financial savings, in our survey of business trends in the year ahead.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Crypto’s golden period: The sector expects lighter regulation and wider adoption underneath Donald Trump, however some fear about systemic risks.

• Photo voltaic sector: The business is dealing with “a lot of distress” after a collapse in demand triggered a wave of bankruptcies in Germany, its most necessary European market.

• Monetary to-do record: From money-saving work perks to investments and tax planning, Claer Barrett has 10 tips to get your funds in form this new yr.

• ‘Friendshoring’: The ugly, eviscerating saga round Nippon Metal’s takeover bid for US Metal reveals why it’s hard to be a friend of America, writes Leo Lewis.

Chart of the day

Nvidia has emerged as an important backer of start-ups attempting to realize from the substitute intelligence revolution its chips are powering. The semiconductor group has been pumping ever better sums into a few of its personal prospects, investing $1bn in AI companies in 2024.

Take a break from the information

The FT’s critics choose the most anticipated hot tickets in 2025, from movie, theatre, dance and TV to artwork exhibitions, video games, pop and classical music.