Montreal, Canada – Canada has skilled a tumultuous begin to 2025, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing his resignation days into the brand new yr, a federal election looming, and the nation’s affordability disaster deepening.
Now, Canada is dealing with what some economists have dubbed “its largest commerce shock in almost 100 years”.
United States President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25-percent tariffs on a variety of Canadian imports and 10-percent tariffs on Canadian power.
Whereas the measures have been set to start on Tuesday, Trudeau stated on Monday afternoon that the US tariffs and retaliatory measures introduced by his authorities can be delayed by “not less than 30 days” because the international locations work collectively on border safety.
But for a lot of throughout the nation, the potential for a trade war between the longtime allies continues to gas a way of anger, in addition to nervousness and confusion over what’s to come back.
Trump’s threat of tariffs has additionally raised questions concerning the nature of the cross-border relationship and spurred requires Canada to spice up in-country commerce whereas trying past the US for extra dependable worldwide companions.
“It’s very, very worrisome proper now for employees,” Lana Payne, the nationwide coordinator of Unifor, Canada’s largest private-sector union, instructed Al Jazeera earlier than the tariff delay was introduced.
“A variety of concern, plenty of fear, plenty of uncertainty — they’re feeling all of it,” she stated in a telephone interview on Monday.
“However I’d additionally say… they’re feeling indignant proper now that america would do that to the Canadian economic system, would do that to Canadian employees, contemplating our lengthy historical past of working collectively.”
Canada-US ties
The US and Canada have loved shut political and commerce ties for many years.
Final yr, the US exported greater than $322m in items to Canada, in response to US Census data. It additionally imported greater than $377m price of merchandise from its northern neighbour.
Almost three-quarters of Canada’s complete commerce exports go to the US. The nation can be the US’s largest international power provider, with about 97 % of Canadian crude oil exports going south of the border in 2023.
However Trump, who has routinely criticised Canada since he gained re-election in November, has said the tariffs are essential to push the Canadian authorities to cease fentanyl trafficking and irregular migration throughout its border with the US.
He has additionally argued that the tariffs search to make up for a commerce deficit with Canada, which he has dubbed a “subsidy”.
“We pay tons of of Billions of {Dollars} to SUBSIDIZE Canada. Why? There isn’t a cause. We don’t want something they’ve. We’ve got limitless Power, ought to make our personal Vehicles, and have extra Lumber than we will ever use,” the US president lately wrote on social media.
Trudeau has hit again, saying retaliatory tariffs towards about $106bn (155 billion Canadian {dollars}) of US items on Saturday. Of that, about $20bn (30 billion Canadian {dollars}) was set to be imposed on Tuesday.
“We are going to stand sturdy for Canada. We are going to stand sturdy to make sure our international locations proceed to be the most effective neighbours on the planet,” Trudeau stated.
However on Monday afternoon, the Canadian prime minister introduced the proposed tariffs can be paused “for not less than 30 days” after he had a “good name” with Trump.
Canada will “appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we’ll checklist cartels as terrorists, guarantee 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada-US Joint Strike Power to fight organized crime, fentanyl and cash laundering”, amongst different measures, Trudeau stated.
I simply had a very good name with President Trump. Canada is implementing our $1.3 billion border plan — reinforcing the border with new choppers, expertise and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American companions, and elevated sources to cease the movement of fentanyl. Almost…
— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) February 3, 2025
‘Topic to Trump’s whims’
Asa McKercher, a professor at St Francis Xavier College who research Canada-US relations, stated the 2 international locations have skilled tensions previously.
He pointed to tensions over Canada’s refusal to hitch the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and private animosities between former US President John F Kennedy and Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker within the early Sixties.
However McKercher stated the present commerce tensions have plunged the connection to its lowest level.
“We haven’t actually seen the Individuals exit of their method to impose a policy that can simply destroy the Canadian economic system. That’s the distinction right here,” McKercher instructed Al Jazeera.
He stated that since Trump signed the order authorising tariffs towards Canada and Trudeau unveiled reciprocal measures, there was an uptick in nationalist sentiment in Canada.
Canadian crowds booed the US nationwide anthem at hockey and basketball games over the weekend, whereas the leaders of a number of provinces have urged individuals to “purchase Canadian” in response to the tariffs.
“Some individuals are reacting in the one methods they’ll, which is booing American hockey groups and never shopping for Kellogg’s cereal as a result of it’s made in America,” he stated.
For the typical individual, McKercher defined, these “little acts of defiance” supply “a way of company” in a state of affairs the place they could in any other case really feel powerless.
“We’re actually topic to the whims of a man within the White Home, and that’s a really scary factor.”
Confusion and uncertainty
At a small fruit-and-vegetable store in Montreal on Monday morning, consumers Patricia and Lorraine have been searching for an avocado — however they’d to ensure it was not from the US.
“It’s creating plenty of nervousness for everybody, I believe,” Patricia, who solely gave Al Jazeera her first identify, stated of the looming tariffs. “Even the ambiance basically: The costs will go up, it can change our tempo of life.”
“We’ve got to boycott [US products]. We’ve got to,” Lorraine stated because the pair left the store.
“We don’t have a selection,” Patricia added.
The store’s proprietor, Amine Mulhim, stated he was ready to see how the potential tariffs would have an effect on his enterprise. He instructed Al Jazeera that he already largely sells native items, however through the winter months, a higher portion of the produce comes from the US and Mexico.
“Already, every little thing is dear,” he stated.
Just a few blocks away, at a provincial liquor retailer, buyer Angelo Baaco was including US wines to a small purchasing cart. The Quebec authorities had said that US alcohol shall be taken off the cabinets as of Tuesday.
“It’s simply stuff that I’m not going to have the ability to get within the subsequent few months, or who is aware of how lengthy. So I figured, ‘OK, may as properly get this,’” Baaco stated, reaching for a pink wine from California. “I’m going to seize one other one, simply in case.”
But the specter of a chronic commerce warfare goes past day-to-day purchases. For a lot of Canadians — together with these dwelling in poverty and homelessness — the prospect may make an already difficult economic situation worse.
Georges Ohana — the director of homelessness prevention on the Previous Brewery Mission, a assist and advocacy organisation in Montreal — stated his best concern is a possible lack of jobs because of the US tariffs.
“That may compound what has already been a really tough begin to the yr when it comes to inflation,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Already, Ohana stated there was a rise in demand for meals banks and shelter beds in recent times in Montreal. Rental prices within the metropolis have additionally skyrocketed, making inexpensive housing more durable to search out.
“If you compound these completely different methods, it makes it tougher for homeless women and men, individuals which are weak, folks that have trauma, to have the ability to get the required assist they want,” he stated.
However, Ohana added, “I don’t assume we should always bounce to conclusions [on tariffs]. I believe we should always wait to see how this fares out.”
‘Not the actions of an ally’
At the same time as Canada seems to have secured a reprieve from US tariffs — not less than for now — many Canadians have expressed anger at Trump’s repeated threats towards their nation.
Final week, political, labour and civil society leaders released the “Pledge for Canada” to construct a nationwide response to the Trump administration’s insurance policies.
That features defending Canadian sovereignty, lowering the nation’s “dependence on america by diversifying our commerce”, and constructing alliances with different international locations, together with on local weather motion, humanitarian assist and advancing democracy.
“It’s changing into very clear that to construct resiliency for Canada on this more and more turbulent world, it means truly lessening our dependency on our southern neighbour,” lawmaker Charlie Angus of the New Democratic Occasion stated throughout a news conference saying the marketing campaign.
In keeping with Payne at Unifor, a menace of tariffs — which Canada has skilled for weeks, since Trump first made his plan recognized in November — stays harmful by itself.
“It causes trade to pause on investments. It causes trade to divert funding to america. It causes trade to cancel investments as a result of tariffs make it costlier for them to function,” she defined.
However she stated Trump’s tariff menace additionally has created an understanding in Canada that the nation should assessment all of its financial and commerce insurance policies, together with procurement processes, infrastructure tasks and pure useful resource growth.
“All of that’s on the desk in a manner that it has not been on the desk in a really very long time,” she instructed Al Jazeera.
“There’s a nice urge for food for this proper now as a result of there’s a sense … that we not have a pal the best way that we thought that we did, and a secure buying and selling associate,” Payne added.
“We’ve got a president that rips up commerce agreements. We’ve got a president that threatens us each day with measures that may throw our economic system right into a recession. These will not be the actions of an ally.”
