When President Donald Trump first pitched his plan for postwar Gaza throughout a joint information convention with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this month, it was troublesome to parse whether or not it was simply considered one of his many off-the-cuff remarks or an actual suggestion. Expelling greater than 2 million Palestinians into Jordan and Egypt, remodeling Gaza right into a U.S. territory as if it was the Center East’s model of Puerto Rico and turning the war-battered enclave right into a top-notch journey vacation spot sounded too ridiculous and deluded to take significantly. Even Netanyahu seemed stunned when Trump blurted out the thought.
Trump, nonetheless, stored coming again to it many times. Over the following days, he repeatedly insisted the U.S. would in impact take full possession of Gaza (with out placing U.S. troops on the bottom or spending taxpayer cash, after all), that the Arab world’s main powers preferred the plan and went so far as to recommend that the Palestinians won’t be allowed again in as soon as all of the resorts, resorts and golf programs had been constructed.
Trump has since distanced himself from all the scheme, expressing shock that Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and King Abdullah II of Jordan had been so strongly against it. In some methods, although, Trump’s Gaza plan (if you happen to might name it that) was profitable in a minimum of one respect: it produced such shock, confusion and trepidation within the area that the Arab world’s main governments began getting their heads collectively to draft an alternate.
On Feb. 21, delegations from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates met in Riyadh for an emergency summit on exactly this matter. The questions had been as easy because the technicalities had been difficult: How ought to Gaza be ruled and reconstructed after the Israel-Hamas conflict is over, with out having to resort to ethnic cleaning? Who could be accountable for funding reconstruction, which the United Nations, European Union and World Financial institution assess will cost more than $53 billion over the following decade? And may the Arab states current a plan that Trump will assist?
Final week’s assembly in Riyadh got here and went with out solutions to any of those questions. The one factor the members agreed on is that on no account can Palestinians be pushed off their very own land. Doing so wouldn’t solely have dire repercussions beneath worldwide regulation however would even be unworkable, because the states who could be anticipated to take them in — Egypt and Jordan — have their very own self-interested causes for not cooperating.
Whereas discussions proceed, one plan drafted by Egypt is getting a lot of the consideration. Underneath this concept, Palestinians in Gaza could be designated three secure zones the place they might stay quickly as donor-funded reconstruction efforts proceed over a interval of 5 years (though this time-frame rings overly optimistic). Palestinian Authority safety forces could be accountable for offering regulation and order, maybe with the assist and backup of an Arab intervention pressure. Gaza, in flip, could be run by a technocratic committee of Palestinians, with out Hamas or Palestinian Authority involvement. The Egyptian-drafted scheme goals to realize three targets concurrently: rebuild Gaza, maintain the peace and do each with out displacing the inhabitants who name Gaza dwelling. The Arab League could or could not put their stamp of approval on it throughout their subsequent summit on March 4.
Trump’s utterings on Gaza had so many holes that you can drive a tractor trailer by means of them. Egypt’s model is much better by way of feasibility but in addition runs into issues. Arab states equivalent to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates shall be anticipated to pay a lot of the invoice for Gaza’s reconstruction, which they’ve carried out earlier than after previous wars between Israel and Hamas. But you’ll be able to’t blame these similar states for not eager to relive this countless cycle of destruction and reconstruction. Why throw tens of billions of {dollars} into Gaza if one other conflict one, 5 or 10 years later might destroy no matter progress was made? The Arab states are additionally unlikely to order their very own forces to take part in a postwar Gaza stabilization mission if it’s not linked to the institution of a Palestinian state — or on the very least a assure that Israel and the Palestinian Authority will enter into final-status negotiations. The very last thing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani desires to do is put themselves within the place of policing the Palestinians on Israel’s behalf.
Speak of stabilization and financial revitalization apart, it’s necessary to notice that all the dialog is irrelevant if the Israel-Hamas truce doesn’t maintain up. The primary six-week part, which ends March 1, has labored nicely sufficient. Dozens of Israeli and international hostages have been freed, as have 1000’s of Palestinian prisoners. Gaza is now receiving humanitarian assist at a tempo and scope it hasn’t seen since earlier than the conflict started Oct. 7, 2023. There have been points with implementation, delays in prisoner releases, inhumane public relations stunts by Hamas in addition to accusations by Israeli and Hamas officers of violations. However the ceasefire deal negotiated by the Biden and Trump administrations has labored to stem the bleeding.
Even so, Section 1 was all the time the best a part of the three-stage course of. Section 2, the place Israel and Hamas are anticipated to barter the return of all remaining hostages in addition to the everlasting finish to the conflict, is what is going to in the end decide whether or not Gaza sees peace or continued battle. Almost three weeks previous the deadline, these talks have but to start out.
The Trump administration ought to be encouraging the Arab world to take major initiative over Gaza. However until the conflict really stops, not one of the postwar planning will quantity to a lot.
