The Taliban’s minister of refugees, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, was killed together with 4 others in a suicide assault in Kabul on Wednesday.
The deceased minister was a senior chief inside the Haqqani Community, the Taliban’s closest ally which has collectively managed energy in Afghanistan since 2021.
Haqqani’s killing was claimed by the ISIL (ISIS)-affiliate within the Khorasan Province, ISKP, and marks probably the most vital assassination of a pacesetter in Afghanistan’s Taliban-led administration for the reason that ouster of the United States-backed authorities of former President Ashraf Ghani three years in the past, say analysts.
The bombing, they are saying, has raised questions on inside tensions inside the Taliban and its allies, the affect of the ISKP within the nation and safety in Afghanistan extra broadly.
Who was Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani?
Haqqani was the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s inside minister and the senior-most chief of the Haqqani Community.
Earlier than being appointed because the minister for refugees, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani was first charged with the safety of Kabul metropolis instantly after the Taliban seized management of the nation. He was beforehand the Haqqani Community’s operational commander aiding al-Qaeda’s navy in Afghanistan, and was essential to his community’s fundraising efforts.
In 2011, the US Treasury Division designated him a “terrorist”, with a reward of as much as $5m for info resulting in his seize and prosecution.
“He was incredibly significant,” stated Ashley Jackson, the co-director on the Geneva-headquartered Centre on Armed Teams, including that he was “instrumental within the creation of the Haqqani Community”.
“Furthermore, he had a powerful energy base … inside the authorities. We noticed him early within the administration making strikes to exert authority over UN companies, and he was pretty autonomous and did his personal factor mainly,” added Jackson.
Certainly, Haqqani’s appointment to the ministry raised eyebrows amongst Western officers in 2021, stated Graeme Smith, a senior marketing consultant with the Worldwide Disaster Group. “They remembered him as a tricky commander throughout the warfare and so they fearful that the refugee ministry would require a softer type of persona who works effectively with NGOs,” he stated.
However inside the federal government, Smith added, Haqqani grew to become known as a pragmatist. “He was reputed to be lobbying behind the scenes for women and girls to attend secondary colleges and universities,” he stated.
Whereas the Taliban has imposed quite a few restrictions on girls’s freedoms since taking on, there was a level of inside resistance, largely coming from the Haqqani management, in direction of the whole ban on girls’s increased schooling in Afghanistan, say analysts.
“He was a formidable determine inside the Haqqani Community. And the lack of a member with [a] ministerial place would diminish Haqqani’s energy,” Jackson stated.
Is the Taliban-led administration divided?
Whereas the assault was rapidly claimed by the ISKP, the stature and nature of the goal have sparked hypothesis over whether or not the assassination was the results of an inside tussle inside the Taliban-led administration in Afghanistan.
An assault concentrating on a senior member of the Taliban and the Haqqani Community would have required a level of planning and, presumably, infiltration, Jackson stated.
“One can’t simply merely stroll as much as somebody like Khalil Haqqani and do that. He was a person who was — by all studies — closely armed himself and surrounded by people who find themselves closely armed. And I might suppose it was not possible that he would let strangers in shut bodily proximity,” she identified.
Ibraheem Bahiss, an analyst with the Worldwide Disaster Group, advised that the timing of the assault, which got here at a time of rumoured divisions inside the management over the increasing restrictions on women, has fuelled hypothesis of infighting inside the Taliban.
There are a lot of completely different energy bases inside the Taliban-led administration, Jackson agreed, and the Haqqanis, she stated, “are probably the most highly effective faction with variations of opinion” over some choices taken by Taliban’s supreme chief, Haibatullah Akhunzada.
Sirajuddin Haqqani, she stated, has in speeches signalled disagreements — albeit respectfully — on points such because the “forceful implementation of some edicts within the southeast areas the place the Haqqanis maintain sway”.
However the Taliban has dismissed speak of fissures. Senior Taliban leaders, together with Abdul Ghani Baradar, who’s the deputy prime minister for financial affairs, attended Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani’s funeral, the place he spoke of “love and friendship” among the many motion’s leaders. He reportedly requested followers to not give credence to talks of a cut up inside the administration.
And even when some variations exist, safety analysts say they aren’t vital sufficient to end in open violence between factions.
“Disputes are regular within any administration and the political disagreements amongst Taliban leaders are well-known,” stated Smith. “However no vital battles have occurred between main Taliban figures over the past three years.”
Jackson agreed.
“I don’t suppose these divides at this level are large sufficient to set off violent battle. There’s no indication that the Taliban is split sufficient to activate itself,” she stated.
The truth is, she stated, the Taliban proceed to current a united entrance for probably the most half. “There may be this ethos of obedience to the emir inside their motion, which has up to now prevented splits and divides from opening up into violent battle,” she identified, referring to Akhunzada.
Is ISKP’s affect increasing?
Nevertheless, if the ISKP is liable for Haqqani’s assassination, this may recommend that the ISIL (ISIS) faction — regardless of a significant Taliban crackdown on it — stays a potent drive and critical safety menace to Afghanistan and the area.
“That is probably the most high-profile assassination in a very long time that we’ve seen and actually means that if you may get to somebody like Khalil Haqqani, there are critical issues in your safety,” Jackson stated.
A UN monitoring report in July estimated that the ISKP’s presence in Afghanistan “has elevated from 4,000 to six,000 fighters, regardless of the lack of territory and attrition amongst management”.
Analysts say, nevertheless, that the ISKP’s assaults have trended downward over the past three years. “The Taliban struggled to include the group throughout the first months after August 2021, after which a sequence of well-targeted operations towards ISKP leaders constrained them. Violence ranges have been dropping,” stated Smith.
The assassination “must be seen within the context of ISKP’s struggle for survival towards the Taliban’s highly effective safety equipment,” he added.
Bahiss, nevertheless, argued that amid “critical setbacks”, the ISKP has grow to be “much more strategic”.
“They’ve usually tried to both goal international pursuits comparable to embassies, accommodations and vacationers, or they’ve gone after senior Taliban leaders and ideologues, or they’ve continued to focus on Hazara civilians,” he stated, referring to the persecuted ethnic Afghan minority.
In the meantime, the ISKP’s worldwide footprint and menace capability have elevated, Bahiss stated. The group claimed accountability for an attack on a Moscow concert hall in March wherein greater than 130 individuals had been killed.
“So, regardless that they is perhaps struggling in Afghanistan, they’ve grow to be much more harmful from a global perspective. And killing senior Taliban leaders ensures that they continue to be related as a political actor even inside Afghanistan,” he added.
The UN report in July additionally famous that the ISKP had “improved its monetary and logistical capabilities and intensified recruitment efforts”. The ISKP has additionally been identified to recruit from inside the Taliban’s personal ranks.
Bahiss advised this assault was possible attributable to a niche within the Taliban safety measures, exploited by the ISKP.
“The concept that ISKP will fully disappear from Afghanistan – I feel it’s unlikely. It’s a generational problem that the Taliban will proceed to face,” he stated.
