POSSIBLE RENEGOTIATION OF DEAL UNDER TRUMP
If Trump wins the election, consultants mentioned he’ll probably scrap a deal reached beneath President Joe Biden’s administration final month, and power Seoul to pay extra to host about 28,500 American troops based mostly in South Korea.
Each nations in October agreed that Seoul pays US$1.1 billion in 2026, when a brand new five-year defence cost-sharing deal kicks in. That is a rise of 8.3 per cent in contrast with 2025.
However Trump has mentioned he desires to hunt as a lot as US$10 billion from South Korea.
Asan Institute of Coverage Research’ Cha mentioned Trump might ask for re-negotiation of the deal, and South Korea might have to vow a considerable enhance in what it pays the US even when the brand new deal will not be as excessive as Trump’s suggestion.
“South Korea might request stable assurances relating to the North Korean nuclear risk, commensurate with the elevated monetary contributions it’s making,” Cha famous.
“On this case, provided that the Trump administration tends to prioritise financial advantages, the negotiations may really grow to be simpler in some respects.”
Regardless of the result of any negotiations, nonetheless, analysts mentioned it’s unlikely Trump will pull American troops from South Korea if he’s elected – one thing he had beforehand threatened to do.
Additionally they expressed optimism that cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan will proceed.
“Even in the course of the first time period of the Trump authorities, the US tried rather a lot to revive the connection between Japan and Korea and make trilateral cooperation,” mentioned Sejong Institute’s Kim.
“What I fear about is, if Trump requests a whole lot of budget-sharing after which places tariffs on Japan and South Korea, I am undecided how the South Korean and Japanese authorities could be prepared to cooperate on the trilateral format.”
