“China has defied Trump on two issues,” Mr John Holden, who leads geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates’ China follow, defined to me. “First, it has not taken the motion on fentanyl Trump demanded. Second, it has rapidly and defiantly retaliated tit-for-tat towards his tariffs”.
Dr Taimur Baig, Managing Director and Chief Economist at DBS, agrees that the aid over this postponement may very well be short-lived, as “extra sectoral tariffs, together with on prescribed drugs and semiconductors, may very well be forthcoming”.
WILL THE MARKET GUARDRAIL KEEP HOLDING?
Now, will different nations comply with China’s lead in responding to tariffs in kind or fall for Mr Trump’s lure of his pausing tariffs on these nations that haven’t retaliated?
Governments mustn’t take the bait. Definitely, their efforts to respond to the tariffs mustn’t cease due to the pause.
We’re in probably the most sophisticated macro and geopolitical surroundings of our lifetimes. Whereas the market guardrail could have kicked on this time, it did so even with probably the most economically damaging tariffs remaining.
Buyers and authorities officers alike shouldn’t be so assured it’s going to proceed to take action.
Steven Okun serves as CEO of APAC Advisors, a geostrategic and accountable funding consultancy based mostly in Singapore. He served as Deputy Basic Counsel on the US Division of Transportation within the Administration of President Invoice Clinton.
