Left-hander Shinnosuke Ogasawara has been formally posted by the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball, per reporter Francys Romero. That opens up a 45-day window for his representatives at William Morris Endeavor to barter with main league golf equipment. If no deal is reached in that point, the southpaw will return to the Dragons for 2025.
Whereas Ogasawara ought to generate curiosity, he’s clearly not thrilling as Roki Sasaki, who has additionally been posted for golf equipment this offseason. Nonetheless, Ogasawara probably has extra incomes energy than Sasaki because of the binary nature of MLB worldwide signing guidelines.
Gamers have to be 25 years previous and have six seasons of expertise in a international skilled league in an effort to be thought-about “professionals” and have the appropriate to freely negotiate a contract of any dimension and size. Gamers who don’t meet these standards are thought-about “amateurs” and are subsequently topic to the worldwide bonus pool system, the place every membership will get $5M-8M yearly to spend on such gamers. Sasaki is simply 23 years previous and can subsequently be restricted to a minor league take care of a signing bonus of some million bucks. Ogasawara, alternatively, is 27 years previous and has appeared in elements of 9 NPB seasons. Which means he has the liberty to totally assess his incomes energy and market himself to the best bidder.
How a lot curiosity North American golf equipment could have in him is unknown. Ogasawara has had some success, however not as a lot as another pitchers which have just lately come over like Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. He has thrown 951 1/3 innings over his NPB profession, hanging out simply 18.9% of batters confronted. For context, MLB common is normally within the 22-23% vary. He did get his strikeout fee as much as 24% in 2022 however it dropped to twenty.1% final yr after which all the way in which to 13.6% in 2024.
The dearth of punchouts hasn’t stopped him from succeeding in Japan, as he has a 3.62 earned run common over his profession and had a 3.12 ERA within the season that simply completed, although MLB golf equipment may surprise if the identical pitch-to-contact strategy may carry over to North American ball.
Ogasawara can be on the smaller aspect for a beginning pitcher, listed at 5’11” and 183 kilos. That’s really barely bigger than the 5’10” and 175 kilos listed for Imanaga, so it’s not a complete disqualification, however Imanaga managed to strike out 25% of batters confronted in his NPB profession.
Even when Ogasawara is a notch under Imanaga, he may nonetheless generate curiosity. Youth is clearly a horny high quality, which is why guys like Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Juan Soto have been paid so nicely, so the truth that Ogasawara simply turned 27 in October will work in his favor. The latest downturn in strikeouts is a bit regarding, however he additionally lowered his stroll fee to a tiny 3.7% fee in 2024 and the ERA was nonetheless good.
It’s tough to forecast a contract for a participant coming from one other league like Ogasawara however MLBTR predicted after the beginning of the offseason that he may land a two-year, $12M deal. Maybe he may benefit from the truth that the marketplace for mid-rotation starters has been fairly sturdy to date this winter. Every of Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes have earned bigger ensures than projected in latest weeks, which may maybe trickle all the way down to Ogasawara.
The lefty could have greater than a month to really feel out the market and gauge curiosity. For golf equipment nonetheless trying so as to add within the rotation however who don’t wish to pay for prime names like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty, Ogasawara will likely be a part of a mid-rotation or back-end group that also contains Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeff Hoffman, Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and others.
