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When UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer meets Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday for his or her first formal assembly to debate resetting the EU-UK relationship, he may have competitors for the eye of the European Fee president.
On the identical day von der Leyen can even meet Salome Zourabichvili, the president of the previous Soviet republic of Georgia, which is a candidate to affix the EU and as such is arguably extra important to the bloc’s future than its recalcitrant neighbour throughout the English Channel.
Whereas Georgia is seeking to embrace future EU membership, Starmer has explicitly dominated out rejoining the only market and customs union. That place has left diplomats and analysts warning of the legal limits of any EU-UK reset and future political clashes over fishing rights, vitality buying and selling and youth mobility.
“It’ll merely be the start of the dialog,” her spokesman mentioned on Monday, in an effort to average expectations.
“We’re open to strengthening EU-UK relations,” added an EU diplomat. “However the pink traces stay. The UK desires to remain exterior the only market and the customs union. The ball is within the UK’s court docket. What do they actually need?”
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK Cupboard Workplace minister with duty for the negotiations, was in Brussels on Monday laying the groundwork for the leaders’ assembly.
He met Maroš Šefčovič, who will maintain the Brexit temporary within the European Fee for a second time period, offering much-needed continuity. The Slovak commissioner negotiated the Windsor framework that ended the bitter post-Brexit feud over buying and selling preparations with Northern Eire.
However analysts say previous arguments over vitality buying and selling and fishing rights are a possible stumbling block within the coming negotiations due to a “tripwire” clause within the EU-UK Commerce and Cooperation Settlement, which explicitly hyperlinks the 2 points.
Underneath the TCA the transitional preparations for electrical energy buying and selling with the EU — which profit the UK — expire in June 2026 similtaneously a transitional deal on fishing rights, that are politically delicate for coastal EU member states.
“This linkage appears to have been forgotten by some folks, however there’s a actual danger {that a} row over fishing rights is available in and torpedoes all the great will,” mentioned Sam Lowe, UK and EU commerce coverage adviser at consultancy Flint International.
In an indication of the challenges forward, France informed fellow member states in July that any broader reset with the UK required the identical degree of fishing entry as at current. Two diplomats confirmed that almost all coastal states, from Spain to Sweden, had been behind Paris.
The UK vitality trade has urged the federal government to not enable a row over fish to inhibit the power of either side to commerce inexperienced vitality generated by wind farms within the North Sea.
Adam Berman, director of coverage at trade lobbyist Vitality UK, mentioned the fish-energy linkage was “deeply unhelpful”.
“This can be a cliff-edge and we have to get forward of that. The federal government should strategy these points sooner somewhat than later as a result of this isn’t a difficulty that may be resolved on the eleventh hour,” he warned.
Variations have additionally already emerged over a “youth mobility deal” to allow younger folks to journey and work within the EU and UK. Starmer’s authorities has repeatedly rejected the EU’s preliminary concepts for an settlement, saying they’re too near the free motion of individuals ended by Brexit.
Regardless of efforts by EU diplomats to melt the rhetoric round youth mobility forward of Wednesday’s assembly, EU diplomats briefed on inner discussions say solely minor tweaks are anticipated to the unique EU negotiating mandate to make it extra palatable to the UK earlier than it’s agreed earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
“The core thought behind the scheme will stay however some parameters is perhaps [changed to be] barely in favour of the UK,” mentioned one. “It gained’t be pared again lots,” predicted a second EU diplomat.
The UK has mentioned that it desires a deal to ease restrictions on touring artists, however the EU aspect has dominated this out, in keeping with internal documents seen by the Monetary Instances, as a result of it could require modifications to customs and street haulage guidelines that transcend the UK’s personal pink traces.
UK ministers preserve “touchdown zones will be discovered” on areas of competition, constructing on the momentum of a summer time of summits and bilateral visits to EU capitals by Starmer.
Member state ambassadors made clear in a gathering on Monday that any negotiations with UK have to be agreed by them, in keeping with two folks briefed on the discussions. Additionally they emphasised the significance of a youth mobility deal, suggesting Von der Leyen would elevate it within the talks.
One early focus will probably be on a brand new safety pact and improved exchanges between police and safety providers that would additionally pave the best way to deeper ties in areas comparable to defence.
Nonetheless, there’s additionally a debate in Brussels about find out how to combine British corporations within the EU’s rearmament push as a part of any safety pact, with divisions between massive member states on whether or not to widen entry for the UK.
France insists that the EU ought to deal with investing in its personal corporations. However Andrius Kubilius, the brand new defence commissioner, informed the FT that Britain “is a part of Europe”.
Extra reporting by Daria Mosolova in Brussels
