Within the days earlier than the 2024 Presidential Election, pollster Ann Selzer launched a stunning ballot that recommended that Kamala Harris was main Donald Trump in Iowa by 3 %.
President Trump handily received Iowa in 2016 and 2020, so the ballot created shockwaves, particularly with its curious timing.
There have been hints that, maybe, the ballot was less than par. Throughout an interview with Mark Halperin, Selzer appeared confused over what the “R” and “D” letters referred to in polling cross tabs.
In the end, Selzer was 16 factors off. President Trump received the state of Iowa by +13.
The ballot led to untimely celebrations in Democrat circles and supplied a glimmer of hope for a doomed Harris marketing campaign.
what a wild cycle!
Reddit reacts to Ann Selzer: pic.twitter.com/41ChJ0jHi0
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Stories (@Mark_R_Mitchell) November 13, 2024
Selzer has now introduced her departure from polling, a choice she says was made earlier than the disastrous polling debacle.
In an Op-Ed at The Des Moines Register Selzer writes:
Over 30 years of polling led to an A+ ranking in Nate Silver’s analysis of pollsters’ track records of accuracy. I earned that ranking in Silver’s first record, and my grade by no means dropped. Perhaps that historical past of accuracy made the outlier place too comfy.
Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a means of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, but all the time keen to study from surprising findings.
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Over a 12 months in the past I suggested the Register I’d not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the newest election ballot as I transition to different ventures and alternatives.
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My integrity means quite a bit to me. To those that have questioned it, there are possible no phrases to dissuade. For many who know me finest, I respect the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as mates, colleagues and purchasers was dedication to reality and accuracy — each in my skilled and my private relationships.
Whenever you develop into the laughingstock of the occupation, it’s time to search “different ventures.” The Democrats received’t miss her in any respect. Her usefulness to them is at an finish https://t.co/qWoO8L5bJ9
— Dinesh D’Souza (@DineshDSouza) November 17, 2024
Look, everybody is aware of Ann Selzer is a clown for the Iowa ballot. We get that.
What’s value reiterating, is that anybody who believed the ballot held any significance needs to be ignored, they’ve utterly discredited themselves. pic.twitter.com/e2qTtVaWo1
— Dave (@David_CarlsonII) November 11, 2024
