One of many traditional blunders of punditry is to write down about politics proper earlier than the election. So, let’s take a look at what politics is perhaps like after the election. One prediction is simple: Anticipate much more political inconsistency and hypocrisy.
The time period “realignment” will get used and abused loads, as a result of individuals have agreed to make use of it with out agreeing on a definition. Historically, realignments are stated to have occurred when majority and minority events swap locations. Beginning in 1932, FDR pulled black, working-class and immigrant white voters into the Democratic Social gathering, making it the bulk celebration for generations. It’s an indication of how huge that coalition was that it’s been shrinking for the reason that 1960s with out Republicans ever turning into the clear majority celebration, although the story will get sophisticated with the rise in voters calling themselves independents.
For the final 20 years, the events have basically been tied, and it appears unlikely that may change anytime quickly. However there’s nonetheless a complete lot of realigning happening. Donald Trump has accelerated the development of the white working class fleeing the Democrats. Meanwhile, college-educated and suburban voters have moved significantly toward the Democrats.
In different phrases, whereas the events are caught in a logjam, the coalitions making up the events are altering dramatically.
And that’s the place the inconsistency and hypocrisy are available in. Events mirror the pursuits of their electoral coalitions. You possibly can see indicators of the changes in every single place. Republicans reminiscent of JD Vance are sounding loads like anti-war Democrats from 20 years in the past, railing in opposition to warmongers, hen hawks and “neocons.” Democrats haven’t modified as dramatically, however they’re much more comfy speaking about American world management and the significance of our alliances than they was once.
Events additionally mirror their candidates, which is why the celebration of philandering Invoice Clinton now talks loads about good character whereas Republicans fawn over Trump’s alpha canine “manliness.”
Democrats have been much more constant on abortion, as a result of in a post-Roe surroundings it’s a successful concern. However Trump has moved the GOP towards a de facto pro-choice place, denouncing “heartbeat payments” whereas additionally insisting that states must be free to do what they please on abortion.
Neither celebration is coherent — or good, for my part — on commerce and industrial coverage, however Trump has undoubtedly made the GOP extra protectionist and dirigiste than at any level in my lifetime. Given the motion of rank-and-file members of personal labor unions towards the GOP it’s not arduous to think about a brand new partisan divide between public and private-sector unions.
Essentially the most attention-grabbing change is perhaps on the difficulty of democracy itself. I don’t imply the arguments about Trump’s pernicious election fraud lies (the types of lies once associated with left-wing Democrats like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.), however the broader debates in regards to the electoral school and so-called voter suppression.
For many years, each events shared the flawed assumption that greater voter turnout largely benefited Democrats in nationwide elections; Democrats had the alternative view in big-city elections. Voter ID legal guidelines and tighter restrictions on early and absentee voting had been seen as a solution to guarantee that high-propensity voters — that’s, disproportionately Republican, college-educated suburbanites who may very well be relied upon to vote — had been overrepresented, and low-propensity voters — Black, Latino and rural non-college educated white voters — had been underrepresented. The overheated rhetoric about “voter suppression” or “election integrity” was unjustified. However the dynamic was actual, as a result of the electoral calculation was actual.
After 2016, many Democrats doubled down on the declare that the electoral school was racist or undemocratic, which was itself remarkably hypocritical given their earlier boasts that Democrats had a near-lock on the electoral school — that’s how the phrase “the blue wall” originated. Bragging about your benefit within the electoral school solely to name it racist and undemocratic when it really works in opposition to you is just not an ideal look.
The Harris marketing campaign has relied on high-propensity voters whereas the Trump marketing campaign has leaned closely on low-propensity males. Assuming these tendencies are actual and that they change into the brand new regular, will probably be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the events swap their rhetoric about democracy.
Once more, I’m writing earlier than the numerous states begin counting votes: Think about a state of affairs through which Harris wins the electoral school however loses the favored vote and the hypocritical switcheroo that would trigger. Abruptly, Democrats is perhaps hailing the knowledge of the founders and Republicans is perhaps denouncing the electoral school as a rigged and racist relic.
