The deal is an indication of what a outstanding turnaround it’s been for Robles up to now two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for project on the finish of Could. They reportedly then explored trades with different golf equipment however couldn’t discover any takers.
Since Robles had sufficient service time to reject an outright project whereas preserving what remained of this yr’s $2.65M wage, the Nats merely launched him.
The Mariners took a shot on him, which basically got here with no danger. The Nats have been nonetheless on the hook for many of his wage, leaving the Mariners to pay simply the prorated league minimal, with that quantity subtracted from what the Nats pay.
For that minimal funding, the Mariners have already been vastly rewarded. In 42 video games for Seattle, he has three house runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% higher than league common offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting common on balls in play is certainly on the excessive facet however he’s solely placing out at a 16.3% charge and that will be robust offense even with a little bit of regression.
That’s very true as a result of Robles is able to offering worth even when he doesn’t have the bat in his fingers. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and supplied competent glovework within the outfield, enjoying all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been price 1.2 wins above alternative already in his transient stint with the Mariners.
That has been particularly priceless for a membership that has struggled to generate offense this yr. They’ve arguably the most effective pitching workers within the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops within the majors, however the lack of punch on the plate has stored them preventing for his or her lives. They’re 63-56, successfully even with the Astros within the division however 2.5 video games again of a wild-card spot.
Robles was an impending free agent however the Mariners have seen sufficient that they’re prepared to maintain him round for an additional two and perhaps three years. After all, they’re not simply making this resolution primarily based on the 42 video games he has performed since altering uniforms.
Throughout his time with the Nats, he was as soon as thought-about top-of-the-line prospects within the sport. He was on Baseball America’s high 100 checklist in 4 straight seasons from 2016-19, getting as excessive as No. 5 in 2018.
He appeared to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, serving to the Nats win the World Sequence that yr. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit beneath par, translating to a 92 wRC+, however he was in a position to produce 3.7 fWAR due to his protection and pace. He stole 28 bases on the yr, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Common. On condition that he was solely 22 years outdated on the time, it appeared honest to count on that he was solely scratching the floor of the participant he was about to grow to be.
Sadly, the other occurred, as his efficiency dropped considerably for the subsequent few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit simply .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend a while on the injured checklist however that was a major pattern dimension of 965 plate appearances.
Regardless of these struggles, the Nats caught by him, frequently tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He appeared to be getting issues again on observe final yr, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, however he was restricted to simply 36 on the season again spasms within the lumbar backbone.
Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65M wage for 2024, hoping that Robles might each keep wholesome and put his previous struggles behind him. However this yr bought out to a shaky begin, as Robles missed a couple of month attributable to a left hamstring pressure and hit simply .120/.281/.120 in 14 video games for Washington earlier than they determined to chop him unfastened.
The Mariners have been rewarded with the model of Robles that the Nats thought that they had many occasions up to now. The mix of his previous prospect pedigree and his current efficiency clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can hold producing for a couple of extra years. There may be clearly some danger there primarily based on how poorly he has carried out at occasions up to now, however they’re additionally not sticking their neck out with huge sums of cash.
The assure works out to lower than $5M per yr, which pretty modest in baseball phrases. Even when Robles takes a step again on the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of sources. And if he can proceed to maintain hitting, then there’s loads of upside for the M’s.
For Robles, he’s maybe leaving a bit of cash on the desk right here, nevertheless it’s additionally comprehensible that he would wish to lock in some vital earnings. If he had continued to carry out at this stage for the remainder of the season, he seemingly would have earned a bigger assure than the one he’s agreeing to now. However as he certainly is aware of from the winding path of his profession, it’s not a assure that it’ll proceed to go so effectively.
In any case, it was simply two months in the past that every one the golf equipment within the league handed on the prospect to accumulate him whereas he’s making a reasonably modest wage. If Robles had suffered one other harm or just struggled on the plate down the stretch, he could not have been in a position to safe a assure of even this dimension.
He additionally nonetheless has future incomes energy that he might faucet into if he retains performing. Attributable to debuting at such a younger age, he’s nonetheless simply 27 years outdated. This deal will cowl his age-28 and -29 seasons with the choice giving the M’s an opportunity to regulate him by his age-30 season.
If he’s in a position to sustain his all-around efficiency by the course of this contract, he might line himself up for a extra sizable deal at that time. If the choice is triggered and he hits these escalators, he may have already banked $20.75M off this deal.
The Mariners additionally get a head begin on bolstering their future outfield. They have already got Julio Rodríguez locked in for a few years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable by way of arbitration by 2026.
Mitch Haniger has another yr on his deal after this and the membership additionally has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone within the combine, although Raley has been getting lots of enjoying time at first base currently. Justin Turner figures to be within the designated hitter spot loads for the remainder of this yr however is an impending free agent.
It’s arguably a crowded combine however president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is without doubt one of the recreation’s most energetic resolution makers and will deal from this group within the offseason if the chance presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a participant who is maybe breaking out, however with out breaking the financial institution.
Robles, in the meantime, has secured himself a very nice bit of monetary safety that didn’t appear doable only a few quick weeks in the past.
Yancen Pujols first reported that the 2 sides had agreed to an extension with a $9.75M assure (Spanish-language hyperlink on X). Jorge Castillo of ESPN had the two-year size, membership choice and $2M in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com supplied the specifics of the bonuses/escalators in addition to the signing bonus (X link).
