As Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins his first abroad journey on Saturday in Panama, Central American international locations are largely reeling beneath the burden of President Trump’s confrontational method, including threats of military force to reclaim the Panama Canal and coercing nations into accepting military planes stuffed with deported migrants.
The go to comes throughout a tense interval for the area, which has been grappling with the potential financial repercussions of Mr. Trump’s insurance policies, like mass deportations and a halt in international help.
“It’s each nation for himself,” mentioned Michael E. Shifter, a senior fellow on the Inter-American Dialogue analysis institute in Washington. U.S. leaders know “how fragmented the area is and the way simple it’s to choose them off,” he mentioned. “And that’s what Trump does finest.”
Regardless of a number of makes an attempt to secure meetings with Mr. Trump’s team within the lead-up to his presidency, the area confronted constant rebuffs. Now, with Mr. Trump in workplace and treating Latin America as a important focus — as famous in his Inaugural Tackle, through which he talked about Panama six occasions whereas conventional foes like Iran and Russia have been by no means raised — the stakes are excessive.
Mr. Rubio will land in Panama on Saturday, then transfer on to Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic. Talks are anticipated to heart on immigration, curbing China’s affect within the area and thwarting the circulation of medication, significantly fentanyl, into the US.
Latin American nations need to preserve the established order of their U.S. relations: holding commerce open, sustaining American investments — which Mr. Trump says he needs to carry house — and leaving the spigots of international help open. Considered one of Mr. Rubio’s largest requests will more than likely be that these international locations signal “secure third nation” agreements, to just accept asylum seekers from different nations which might be looking for refuge in the US.
Nations like El Salvador and the Dominican Republic view this as a chance to strengthen their ties with Washington, whereas Panama, already within the highlight, is on edge, gearing as much as defend its pursuits within the talks forward.
Right here’s a have a look at the 5 international locations Mr. Rubio will go to and the largest points on the desk.
Panama
Though President José Raúl Mulino of Panama this previous week dominated out negotiations with Mr. Rubio on the Panama Canal, the subject will nonetheless be high of thoughts when the leaders meet Saturday.
Mr. Trump falsely accused Panama of permitting China to station troops on the canal and of treating U.S. ships and items unfairly by charging exorbitant charges. The Panama Canal Authority, which operates the waterway independently of the federal government, has denied these claims.
Whereas there are not any Chinese language troops to be seen on the waterway, a Hong Kong-based firm known as CK Hutchison Holdings has operated two seaports at every finish of the Panama Canal for many years.
Mr. Trump might not be critical about utilizing the U.S. army to retake the canal, analysts say, as an alternative staking out an excessive negotiating place as a way to clinch one other deal. He could also be eyeing decrease charges for American items traversing the canal or larger cooperation on migration.
The opposite main problem Mr. Rubio and Panamanian leaders are prone to focus on is immigration and the Darién Hole, the perilous jungle route between Panama and Colombia that tons of of 1000’s of migrants have used in recent times to make their strategy to the US.
Panama will possible ask the US to speculate extra in Panama if it seeks to curb Chinese language affect within the area. Panamanian politicians and business leaders complain that when the nation places out tenders for giant infrastructure tasks, U.S. firms are sometimes absent whereas Chinese language are desirous to bid.
In trade, Mr. Rubio might ask Panama to signal a safe-third nation settlement, which might see it take in non-Panamanian migrants. Analysts say Mr. Rubio might use the threats to retake the canal to strain Panama to just accept these asylum seekers or get them to to kick out CK Hutchison Holdings from these ports.
Guatemala
Guatemala has emerged as a rustic keen to indicate it’s open to cooperating with the Trump administration, significantly in the case of migration. The Guatemalan authorities was the primary nation to obtain U.S. army flights carrying deportees, which have served to help Mr. Trump’s declare that migrants are criminals finest handled by power.
Fairly than converse out about deportations, the federal government launched the “Return House” plan to reintegrate Guatemalan deportees.
“For us, an important factor is to current ourselves to the U.S., to the brand new administration, as a dependable and strategic accomplice within the area,” Guatemala’s international minister, Carlos Ramiro Martínez, mentioned in an interview this previous week.
About 675,000 undocumented Guatemalans lived in the US as of 2022, in accordance with the Pew Analysis Heart, making it one of the largest sources of illegal migrants after Mexico, India and El Salvador.
Guatemala additionally shares a border with Mexico, and migrants from around the globe trek by it on their journeys north. Mr. Rubio might name on the nation to do extra to forestall migrants from reaching Mexico, analysts say.
When requested if Guatemala would host asylum seekers deported from the US as a part of a “secure third nation” settlement, Mr. Ramiro mentioned nothing was off the desk forward of the go to. “I’m not ruling something out as a result of the negotiation remains to be ongoing,” he mentioned at a information convention this previous week.
Additionally on the desk might be countering illicit drug trafficking and arranged crime, Mr. Ramiro mentioned.
Guatemala’s president, Bernardo Arévalo, faces intense inside opposition and can more than likely attempt to discover an ally in Mr. Rubio, each to shore up his place at house and to guard the economic system. The USA is Guatemala’s major buying and selling accomplice, accounting for greater than 30 p.c of the nation’s exports, together with espresso and bananas.
El Salvador
Of all the international locations within the area that Mr. Rubio is planning to go to, El Salvador stands out for having already established a considerably heat relationship with the Trump administration.
“Inside the interior circle of MAGA loyalists, Bukele has loads of enchantment,” Manuel Meléndez Sánchez, a Salvadoran political scientist at Harvard College, mentioned of El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele.
The Salvadoran authorities’s latest crackdown on vicious gangs that terrorized the nation has enthused conventional law-and-order Republicans. Mr. Bukele’s antiglobalist and what he calls “anti-woke” insurance policies have captivated American conservatives. And his embrace of expertise, including Bitcoin as an official currency, has received over tech billionaires, like Elon Musk.
In a telephone name between the leaders last week, Mr. Trump praised Mr. Bukele’s management earlier than discussing the 2 important points Mr. Rubio is prone to resurface throughout his go to: unlawful immigration and a crackdown on gangs.
A precedence for the Trump administration is to get the nation to soak up non-Salvadoran deportees from the US.
The nation signed a similar deal in 2019 after Trump administration officers lower off some help to El Salvador, accusing the nation of not doing sufficient to curb unlawful migration. However the settlement by no means took impact and was terminated by the Biden administration.
In a briefing name on Friday, Mauricio Claver-Carone, Mr. Trump’s particular envoy for Latin America, advised reporters that the US was dedicated to efforts “to revive that settlement.”
A spokeswoman for Mr. Bukele declined to remark.
Throughout Mr. Rubio’s go to, Mr. Claver-Carone added, he can even attempt to persuade El Salvador to just accept deported members of the infamous Tren de Aragua gang, a Venezuelan prison group that has spread its reach into the United States.
“If Caracas doesn’t settle for them, Bukele will obtain them,” María Elvira Salazar, a Republican congresswoman, said this previous week. “And Bukele’s prisons are very massive.”
Costa Rica
Mr. Rubio’s go to will more than likely give attention to American funding, migration coverage and the persevering with battle towards worldwide drug trafficking, in accordance with Costa Rican authorities.
President Rodrigo Chaves anticipates a extra transactional relationship with Mr. Trump.
“It’s going to be about worldwide commerce points, capital flows, and funding,” he advised reporters final week.
Mr. Trump’s criticisms of the Biden administration’s CHIPS and Science Act — and his total stance towards American firms investing abroad — have been acquired nervously in Costa Rica, a hub of semiconductor manufacturing. The Biden-era program was meant to scale back the US’ reliance on China for microchip manufacturing by encouraging neighboring international locations to enter the trade.
Past attempting to keep up U.S. investments, Costa Rica will painting itself as an important ally within the struggle towards medication throughout negotiations with Mr. Rubio. Costa Rica has become a major transshipment point for cocaine destined for the US, contributing to the nation’s record-high homicide price since 2022.
Arnoldo André, Costa Rica’s minister of international affairs, described the joint battle towards organized crime and drug trafficking as “points that we’re certain we will reconcile with the brand new U.S. authorities.”
If Mr. Trump needs Costa Rica to proceed to clamp down on drug trafficking, financial investments should be maintained, present and former authorities officers say. Or poverty could make the nation ripe for the cartels that run amok within the area.
Dominican Republic
Throughout his Senate affirmation hearings, Mr. Rubio talked about the Dominican Republic as one of many international locations in Latin America that was “doing it the proper method.”
By that, Mr. Rubio could imply the Trump method. The Caribbean nation is constructing a wall alongside its border with Haiti, and the federal government has pledged to deport 10,000 Haitians every week — a transfer human rights teams have criticized as rife with abuses.
The Dominican Republic, a rustic of 11 million, shares an island with Haiti, a nation that has descended into chaos because the assassination in July 2021 of its final elected president, Jovenel Moïse. Gangs incomes revenue from unlawful checkpoints, extortion and kidnappings have used the political vacuum to develop their territory to regulate some 90 p.c of the Haitian capital.
Some a million Haitians have fled their houses, in accordance with the International Organization for Migration, many crossing the porous border into the Dominican Republic.
Driving a wave of nationalism, President Luis Abinader was re-elected final Might in a landslide, bolstered by anti-Haitian sentiments that run rampant among the many inhabitants, whereas pledging stricter immigration insurance policies.
The Dominican Republic has additionally emerged as a key safety accomplice for Washington, cracking down on medication and gun smuggling routes that gasoline violence throughout the area. The Trump administration needs extra cooperation there.
Reporting was contributed by Mary Triny Zea from Panama Metropolis; Jody García from Guatemala Metropolis; Gabriel Labrador from San Salvador; and Hogla Enecia Pérez from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
