United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement on most buying and selling companions, together with a number of in Africa, will have an effect on companies and folks throughout the continent and sure pressure extra producers to commerce with China, specialists have warned.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” declaration on Wednesday threw markets into chaos, because the US took its strongest flip to protectionist insurance policies because the Thirties, weakening a worldwide commerce system the US helped construct and strengthen.
The tariffs, which embrace a baseline, common 10 % obligation on all US imports in addition to extra tariffs on “worst offender” international locations like Nigeria and South Africa, may also seemingly override a decades-long open commerce settlement that has seen African producers export items to the US duty-free and that has been credited for creating tens of hundreds of jobs, analysts say.
Established in 2000, the African Development and Alternative Act (AGOA) framework helped develop the continent’s exports of textiles, metal, and agricultural merchandise, amongst others, to the US.
The AGOA was set for a second renewal this 12 months, however is now more likely to be jeopardised by Trump’s commerce struggle, in accordance with analysts.
Right here’s what to find out about how African international locations had been hit and what the seemingly results may very well be:
Which African international locations have been hit and by how a lot?
Africa’s largest economies, Nigeria (14 %) and South Africa (31 %), had been amongst these on Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs checklist — that’s, international locations the president mentioned “deal with us badly”.
They included people who impose excessive tariffs on US items or have launched different obstacles to US commerce, in accordance with Washington. These tariffs will take impact on April 9, whereas the common tariffs start on April 5.
Southern African international locations had been notably badly hit. Lesotho, the small Southern African nation that Trump claimed “ nobody has heard of” final month, was hit with the highest tariff rates at 50 %. The nation, which carries the second-highest HIV burden of another on this planet, remains to be reeling from the shock of Trump’s sweeping help cuts earlier which have gutted HIV response efforts throughout the area.
Different Southern African international locations hit had been: Madagascar (47 %); Mauritius (40 %); Botswana (37 %); and Angola (32 %).
South Africa was additionally earlier affected by a separate 25-percent tariff on all foreign-made automobiles that went into pressure this week. South Africa exports autos and components value $2bn to the US beneath the AGOA framework, in accordance with the nation’s Ministry of Commerce, Business and Competitors.
Listed here are the tariffs in extra of 10 % imposed on different African international locations:
- Algeria – 30 %
- Cameroon – 12 %
- Chad -13 %
- Democratic Republic of the Congo – 11 %
- Equatorial Guinea – 13 %
- Ivory Coast – 21 %
- Libya – 31 %
- Malawi – 18 %
- Mozambique – 16 %
- Namibia – 21 %
- Tunisia – 28 %
- Zambia – 17 %
- Zimbabwe – 18 %
What have African governments mentioned?
South Africa’s authorities, which has been concerned in a sequence of spats with Washington in current weeks, was the primary to reply to the tariff hikes.
In an announcement on Thursday, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s workplace known as the tariffs on the nation “punitive” and added that they might “function a barrier to commerce and shared prosperity.” The federal government additionally pledged to hunt redress with Washington.
The Presidency has famous with concern the newly imposed tariffs on South African exports to the USA of America (USA). https://t.co/Y3YgJd7ECP
— The Presidency 🇿🇦 (@PresidencyZA) April 3, 2025
“The tariffs affirm the urgency to barter a brand new bilateral and mutually helpful commerce settlement with the US, as a necessary step to safe long-term commerce certainty,” the assertion learn.
In line with the US authorities, South Africa expenses a 60 % tariff on US items, whereas Lesotho expenses 99 %. Madagascar, the White Home claimed, levies 93 % tariffs on US items, and Mauritius, 80 %.
Trump and his shut ally, Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, have criticised South Africa for land reform insurance policies that they declare discriminate in opposition to the nation’s white minority inhabitants. Trump has additionally provided citizenship to white South Africans. On Wednesday, throughout his announcement, Trump mentioned, “Unhealthy issues are occurring there.”
How will tariffs impression AGOA?
Specialists say the tariffs will most importantly impression African economies which might be reliant on US commerce, and that they may successfully override AGOA privileges. At present, 32 African international locations are eligible for the programme. Nations might be, and have been, taken off the checklist – akin to Niger and Gabon, which misplaced their advantages after navy coups.
The AGOA, which expires in September, grants duty-free entry to greater than 1,800 merchandise from eligible sub-Saharan African international locations and has fashioned the spine of US-Africa commerce coverage for 25 years. It was renewed for 10 years in 2015. Chocolate and basket-weaving supplies from Mauritius, musical devices from Mali and nuts from Mozambique are among the many merchandise which have reached US consumers via AGOA.
Whereas it’s nonetheless formally operational, it’s unclear if the Trump administration will renew it once more. Actually, Trump’s tariff bulletins “set it alongside the trail to die”, Cheta Nwanze, lead associate at Lagos-based danger evaluation agency SBM Intelligence, informed Al Jazeera.
“African international locations aren’t identified for making agency geopolitical stances, so lots of them will attempt to maintain on to AGOA, which suggests it can go into zombie mode relatively than dying off,” he mentioned.
The programme has been hailed by economists for years for opening the US market to African producers, though critics say its strict manufacturing and packaging necessities usually favour larger economies. Kenya’s AGOA gross sales, primarily textiles and attire, went from $55m in 2001 to $603m in 2022.
What international locations shall be most affected?
South Africa and Nigeria are the highest US buying and selling companions on the continent. South Africa primarily exports valuable stones, metal merchandise, and automobiles (primarily from BMW South Africa) to the US. Nigeria exports crude oil and different petroleum merchandise. In return, the US exports crude oil, electrical items and plane to South Africa, and largely autos and equipment to Nigeria.
Ghana (cocoa and crude), Ethiopia (espresso), and Kenya (textiles, tea) additionally file massive volumes of commerce with the US yearly beneath the AGOA. Although not listed as “offenders”, these international locations face the ten % common tariffs.
Heavier tariffs would have various however largely adverse impacts on African producers, analysts say, and will result in elevated residing prices and a lack of jobs that may have an effect on the overall populace.
“Elevated export prices would cut back competitiveness, probably reducing income and destabilising economies,” Nwanze of SBM Intelligence informed Al Jazeera.
Sectors such because the agricultural and mineral extraction companies are more likely to be notably susceptible, he added, as most African producers promote uncooked items, not completed merchandise, to the US.
Nigeria remains to be within the throes of a cost-of-living disaster that has led to excessive ranges of starvation and poverty. South Africa, in the meantime, already data a number of the highest ranges of unemployment on this planet, with an estimated six out of 10 folks out of a job. Specialists there had earlier estimated {that a} 25-percent blanket tariff can be a “worst case state of affairs”.
Chatting with the South African publication IOL earlier than Trump’s announcement, Casey Sprake, an economist at South African funding agency Anchor Capital, mentioned a 25-percent state of affairs might lower the nation’s financial progress by between 0.2 and 0.3 proportion factors. The nation ended up with 31 %.
How will African international locations react?
Within the brief time period, international locations like South Africa seem to wish to purpose with Trump for extra beneficial phrases.
In an announcement earlier this week, Commerce Minister Parks Tau mentioned the nation was urgently searching for a gathering with Washington. Tau famous that South Africa’s car exports account for under 0.99 % of complete US car imports and 0.27 % of auto components – figures he mentioned hardly posed a menace to the US market.
Basically, African nations are more likely to flip to different commerce companions, akin to China, to keep away from US tariffs, Nwanze added. Already, for almost 20 years, China has overtaken the US as Africa’s prime buying and selling associate and represents one of many continent’s largest bilateral lenders.
China imports major items, akin to crude oil, iron ore, copper, and is more and more specializing in agricultural produce, as properly. Alternatively, the nation exports completed merchandise, akin to electronics, again to the continent.
