Bieber, 30 in Could, returns to the one group he’s ever recognized. The contract is a mirrored image of his present standing, as he underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in April, that means he’ll miss at the very least a part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the prospect to return to the mound in 2025 and set up his well being. If his efficiency can return wherever close to his beforehand elite ranges, he can resolve to return to the open market. Though if he hits any sort of setback or doesn’t fairly bounce again instantly, he can financial institution the additional $12M and stick round one other yr.
Whether or not he can certainly get again in kind is the massive query. Bieber’s ceiling is nicely established, as he received the American League Cy Younger award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 begins that yr with a 1.63 earned run common. He struck out 41.1% of batters confronted, walked 7.1% of opponents and received grounders at a 48.4% charge.
However issues have principally gone downhill since then, even earlier than the surgical procedure. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t precisely surprising as sustaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been virtually unimaginable. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout charge had been each off his earlier season however nonetheless robust numbers. He missed about three months on account of a proper shoulder subscapularis pressure.
In 2022, he stayed wholesome sufficient to make 31 begins and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, however with extra regarding indicators elsewhere. He averaged simply 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that yr, after principally being within the 93-94 vary in prior years. His strikeout charge additionally dipped to 25%, nonetheless a bit above league common however a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time on account of proper elbow irritation, which appears in hindsight like a precursor to his surgical procedure. He did make 21 begins on the yr however with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout charge and related velocity to the yr prior.
Going into 2024, his identify was in loads of commerce rumors. The Guardians usually commerce gamers as their wage grows and so they get nearer to free company, doing so with gamers like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber considerably lately. In hindsight, maybe the Guards ought to have pulled the set off on a deal, however perhaps they didn’t obtain substantial gives on the heels of all of the purple flags in 2022 and 2023.
For a quick second, hanging onto Bieber appeared like an excellent transfer. He made two begins in the beginning of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in every of them and recording 20 strikeouts in these 12 innings. His velocity got here again barely, together with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first begin of the yr. However it dipped to 91.6 mph within the second begin and the information of his surgical procedure dropped earlier than he might make a 3rd.
Now he’ll be trying to come again from the prolonged Tommy John restoration course of, in addition to the regarding seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a very long time since Bieber had his finest stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was clearly outdoors of his management, although all however one season since then has seen him miss vital time. Within the one season the place he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.
All that makes this an attention-grabbing gamble for the Guardians, as it is a pretty notable expenditure for them. They don’t typically spend a lot in free company, significantly on the pitching aspect. As proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, within the final 15 years, that is the primary time they’ve given a pitcher greater than $7M. That’s partially a testomony to their capability to develop their very own pitching however they’ve additionally solely given 4 place gamers a bigger assure than this in that point.
Per RosterResource, the Guards are actually projected for a payroll of $107MM subsequent yr, already greater than what they spent in 2024. They might maybe drop that by buying and selling somebody like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas however this Bieber deal is a good chunk of the funds both approach.
It’s a dangerous proposition for these parameters. On condition that restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure usually takes 14 months or longer, the Guards would possibly solely get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any form, it might be lower than that. Even when he’s again on a giant league mound by June, it’s no assure that he’ll be in good kind.
The upside play is that Bieber comes again to one thing resembling an ace. The Guards set up him into their second half rotation after which, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that time, he would decline his participant possibility and so they might difficulty him a qualifying supply, which is able to in all probability be within the $22M vary. Assuming he declines that and goes out in search of a significant deal, they’d recoup draft choose compensation.
On the opposite finish of the spectrum are the situations the place Bieber isn’t fairly absolutely wholesome or just isn’t nearly as good as he was earlier than, through which case he sticks round for one more yr at a fair increased wage than in 2025.
It’s a threat the Guardians are prepared to take, which is maybe because of the respect that the group has for him, but it surely’s additionally maybe a mirrored image of the present rotation scenario. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, however the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest a part of the roster. They struggled to search out viable options there for a lot of the yr, discovering success on the backs of a good offense and elite bullpen.
Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen both struggled or had been injured or each. Tanner Bibee was the membership’s solely starter who has persistently wholesome and performing nicely all yr lengthy. Matthew Boyd was a superb midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his personal Tommy John surgical procedure, however he turned a free agent at season’s finish and has a deal in place with the Cubs.
Subsequent yr’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland at the moment consists of Bibee and plenty of query marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are nonetheless within the combine however coming off these aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Vigorous is on the roster, as are pretty unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards in all probability have extra to do in upgrading that group however they are going to hope that Bieber can cost in like a proverbial white knight in some unspecified time in the future in the course of 2025 to avoid wasting the day.
The aforementioned Boyd offers a tough template of what Bieber and the Guards shall be hoping for subsequent yr. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight begins down the stretch after which had three extra good outings within the postseason. That was sufficient to get him a two-year, $29M deal, however Bieber has a path to incomes way over that. Boyd goes into his age-34 season whereas Bieber shall be going into his age-31 marketing campaign in 2026. Boyd’s harm observe report can be extra intensive than Bieber’s and Bieber has the extra spectacular early profession numbers.
As such, with a powerful end in 2025, Bieber might place himself to earn way over Boyd simply did. Though that’s simply one among many potential situations in entrance of him and the Guardians within the yr to come back.
