With MLB spring coaching simply weeks away, it is time for 2025 predictions.
To that finish, the famend group Baseball Prospectus simply launched its PECOTA projections for the upcoming season.
“PECOTA, which stands for Participant Empirical Comparability and Optimization Take a look at Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that tasks participant and staff efficiency.”
So what did we study from PECOTA’s 2025 MLB standings projections? Listed below are 5 key takeaways.
1. The Dodgers are nonetheless the cream of the crop
Shock, shock.
At a projected 104-59, the Los Angeles Dodgers are extensively anticipated to be the perfect staff in baseball in 2025 by a considerable margin. That provides up when you think about all of the expertise they’ve added, led by star Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki.
2. The Guardians, Tigers and Royals all take a giant step again in 2025.
Every of those three AL Central groups made the playoffs in 2024, with the Cleveland Guardians profitable the division. However in 2025, Baseball Prospectus envisions some main regression for every of those golf equipment.
Cleveland clocks in with a projected 80-82 document after ending 92-69 in 2024. Ditto the Detroit Tigers, who additionally mission to complete underneath .500 at 79-83 after an 86-76 season a yr in the past.
At the least the Kansas Metropolis Royals get the good thing about a projected profitable document at 82-80, however that is nonetheless a step down from their 86-76 document in 2024.
3. The Cubs and Brewers swap locations within the NL Central division.
The Milwaukee Brewers shocked the baseball world in 2024 by profitable 93 video games and its division. Nevertheless, Baseball Prospectus does not imagine within the Brewers this season, projecting them to complete 80-82 in 2025.
As an alternative, the Chicago Cubs could possibly be within the NL Central’s driver’s seat this season after ending tied for second with the St. Louis Cardinals at 83-79. The Cubs are projected to complete with 91 wins in 2025, the third- highest complete within the NL.
4. The White Sox will not be the worst staff in MLB this season.
Bear in mind when the Chicago White Sox lost a historic 121 games last season? Effectively, excellent news: Baseball Prospectus does not foresee that very same destiny for the South Siders in 2025, as they’re projected to lose precisely 100 video games. Actually, that is not even essentially the most projected losses in all of MLB: That distinction belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies sit at 107 projected losses in 2025, which suggests simply 55 wins. That’s straight up futility, to not point out simple fodder for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who play in the identical division.
5. The AL East division will likely be aggressive in 2025.
The New York Yankees received 94 video games and the AL East in 2024, making it so far as the World Sequence. Even after shedding Juan Soto in free company to the New York Mets, they’re nonetheless firmly within the combine in 2025.
Baseball Prospectus has the Yankees profitable 90 video games this season, although the competitors is stiff. The Baltimore Orioles clock in with an 89-win projection, for instance. And the Toronto Blue Jays greater than maintain their very own with a projected 85-77 document.
One shock from the AL East projections, nevertheless? The Boston Crimson Sox ending beneath .500 at 78-84 regardless of making enhancements this winter.
