QUESTION: Do you purchase this declare that Trump is crashing the US inventory market by 20% to pressure the Fed to decrease charges so the cash will go into Treasuries? Is he breaking the London metals sellers’ maintain to suppress the gold value? Lastly, do you purchase this concept that Trump and his Secretary of the Treasury need to revalue gold and reestablish Bretton Woods?
FD
ANSWER: Nicely, that may be a mouthful. Look, the pc projected this correction a 12 months prematurely. Right here is the Dow Month-to-month Timing Array from September 2024. It confirmed the turning level in November, which stays as the very best month-to-month closing, a turning level in March, and a Panic Cycle in April. This was earlier than Trump even received the election. On the November WEC in 2024, I stated that I wanted Trump properly, nevertheless it didn’t matter who received; this may not stop the recession into 2028.
No one, however no one, can crash the market intentionally. After I was known as into the Brady Fee to analyze the 1987 Crash, they began with that very same fictional nonsense – We’re going to discover that quick that induced the crash. I stated, look, each investigation since 1907 started with those self same phrases, and no one has ever been discovered. Look, the federal government can’t create perpetual prosperity utilizing Keynesianism or Marxism any greater than it could possibly help a market. The Fed tried through the Nice Melancholy and failed, as did the Japanese authorities tried that through the 1989 Crash and failed. In each instances, they made it worse by giving false hope that the federal government can save the day. THEY CANNOT!!!!!
I met with the Swiss central financial institution and warned them that the peg would break, as I did with the British authorities. I used to be informed they may maintain it, and I stated the percentages had been on my facet since NOBODY has ever been ready to try this. The peg broke, and I used to be named FOREX Particular person of the 12 months.
Trump has not intentionally crashed the inventory market to get the Fed to decrease charges and promote extra treasuries. Come on! First, the belief is that these individuals are smarter than they’re, and second, that they’ve limitless energy, which was the speculation of Karl Marx. If both of those assumptions had been true, then I shouldn’t be known as in by governments worldwide. Why name me in the event that they possess superior data and energy? They’re no completely different than the remainder of us.
So long as individuals make up these conspiracy theories, they aren’t simply feeding propaganda that forestalls individuals from understanding how the system actually works, however they’re supporting the theories of Karl Marx that the federal government has the facility and will use it. That’s the Democrats’ dogma.
Elon Musk states at this cupboard assembly that the explanation he’s there may be to cut back the price of the federal government, BECAUSE the debt is unsustainable. He states that the curiosity expenditures have exceeded protection. Decreasing rates of interest is NOT a long-term resolution. You can not frequently run these deficits indefinitely. It will all come crashing down when the road on the door to by Treauries now not kinds. You then get the sovereign debt disaster and the default.
Scott Bessent on the tip of central planning and a new coming world order monetarily. Whereas Bessent mentions a reorganization of the world financial and commerce system on this clip previous to him turning into the Secretary of the Treasury, he mentions Bretton Woods, the Treaty of Versailles, and the Worldwide Metal Settlement.
The Treaty of Versailles (1919)
The Treaty primarily centered on ending World Warfare I and imposing punitive measures on Germany, relatively than comprehensively regulating worldwide commerce. Nonetheless, it did embody particular financial provisions that not directly influenced commerce:
- Reparations and Financial Restrictions:
Germany was required to pay large reparations, which strained its financial system and restricted its capability to have interaction in worldwide commerce. The treaty additionally mandated the give up of German service provider ships to the Allies, decreasing Germany’s potential to take part in maritime commerce. - Useful resource and Territorial Losses:
Germany misplaced territories wealthy in sources (e.g., coal-rich Saar Basin to French management), affecting its industrial output and commerce potential. Colonies had been redistributed as League of Nations mandates, altering world useful resource entry. - Entry to Waterways:
The treaty internationalized key waterways just like the Kiel Canal and Rhine River, making certain open passage for all nations, which facilitated commerce routes however was not a direct regulation of commerce itself. - Most-Favored-Nation Clauses:
Some provisions required Germany to grant preferential commerce phrases to Allied nations briefly, although these had been restricted in scope and length. - League of Nations Position:
Whereas the treaty established the League of Nations, broader worldwide commerce regulation was left to later initiatives (e.g., 1927 World Financial Convention) relatively than the treaty itself.
Consequently, the Treaty of Versailles didn’t systematically regulate worldwide commerce however imposed financial measures on Germany that not directly impacted world commerce. Broader commerce frameworks emerged later by means of different agreements and the League of Nations.
The Worldwide Metal Settlement
This was instituted in 1926 in Europe and was the primary worldwide metal cartel. France didn’t have the required coke to actually make metal, as was the case with Germany. Additionally, the Germans had flooded 18 out of 19 of the French mines, which hindered their potential to regain metal manufacturing. This was an try to manage commerce and to maintain costs, whereas equitably dividing up quotas amongst member states and firms. This settlement confronted difficulties because of Nazi Germany’s want to re-arm and elevated British and American exports after the Wall Avenue crash of 1929. The US was flooding metal into Europe. Therefore, this settlement collapsed after the Nice Melancholy of Thirties.
The Euro was an try and resurrect the concept of Bretton Woods with a single foreign money. They had been pushing Britain to affix the euro and even staged a coup to take away Margaret Thatcher. John Main took the pound into the ERM, and that collapse made Soros wealthy and well-known. Eliminating floating currencies is incompatible with politics so long as they’re free to have interaction in deficit spending and countless borrowing.
This obsession with world commerce and home economics has been happening for hundreds of years. Napoleon had truly summoned the very best minds and skills from throughout Europe into his service. His court docket was intentionally full of ready males from throughout Europe: Dutch, German, Italian, and even Polish. These foreigners labored within the highest workplaces of his imperial civil service. Immediately, Macron would go into convulsions if non-French ministers had been operating the federal government in France.
Napoleon created the primary single foreign money in Europe after the Roman Empire. He standardized the load of the cash in order that 40 francs equaled 40 Lire in Italy and 320 reales in Spain. This was actually Napoleon’s concept of resurrecting the Roman Empire.
Certainly, Napoleon was making a single foreign money try to revive the usual financial system of the Roman Empire. Each Napoleon and Hitler had comparable concepts of a unified Europe. It was Julius Caesar (100- 44 BC) who conquered Europe and, within the course of, created a single language and financial system. Certainly, this silver denarius illustrates his victory over Gaul, displaying an unshaven Gallic barbarian seated on the bottom under his trophy.
Julius Caesar achieved the unification of Europe. Nonetheless, it was Napoleon who standardized the financial system post-Rome, which grew to become the inspiration for the Latin Financial Union by 1865.
Even at Bretton Woods, John Maynard Keynes had proposed creating an overarching “Worldwide Clearing Union” that doubtlessly each nation would be part of. This could change into the brand new reserve foreign money, known as the “BANCOR.” It could be used for settling worldwide accounts. Every member nation would pay a membership quota in proportion to their whole commerce. Nations that had been in surplus would obtain BANCOR credit score, whereas these in deficit would have a unfavourable account. This proposal was supposed to extend commerce. If a rustic moved right into a perpetual deficit, it could be required to devalue to cut back imports. However, transfer too far into surplus, and their foreign money can be required to understand to extend imports. Then there would even be a bancor tax levied at a progressive fee on anybody with a big commerce imbalance.
The IMF created its SDR which was not the equal to Keynes’ Bancor, but it represents a practical adaptation of some ideas. The Bancor was a visionary proposal for a brand new financial order, whereas the SDR is a technical instrument inside the present IMF framework. Some have argued that Keynes’ concept must be used relatively than tariffs.
Europe remains to be very a lot residing underneath mercantilism. Kohl took Germany into the euro, denying the individuals the suitable to vote, as a result of he assumed {that a} single foreign money would improve Germany’s gross sales of merchandise to the remainder of Europe, working underneath mercantilism. The prevailing object underneath mercantilism is to twist mutually useful worldwide commerce to a one-sided benefit. That is the Neoclassical financial view the place economists agreed that the science was settled and that free commerce was secure and efficient in opposition to mercantilism.
At the moment, some imagine that our commerce deficit is destroying important segments of American business and eliminating badly wanted jobs. They completely ignore the patron that protects overpriced labor, which reduces the usual of residing for the entire. They argue that that is occurring as a result of we now have embraced free commerce and don’t listen.
Keynes wrote in his unique proposal that the fundamental precept is the required equality of credit and debits, of belongings and liabilities. If no credit might be eliminated outdoors the clearing system however solely transferred inside it, the Union itself can by no means be in difficulties.”
Bretton Woods operated for some time and was an enchancment on the prewar gold commonplace. Nonetheless, France specifically remained very hostile to Britain and the USA underneath De Gaulle. They envisioned that France would rise to steer the world if it had the gold reserves. France was eagerly shopping for up {dollars} and redeeming them for gold which in the end broke the again of your complete Bretton Woods financial fastened fee system. This throwback to mercantilism and the gold commonplace undermined your complete system. In the meantime, no one in Europe understood what made the USA the reserve foreign money was not gold – it was the American shopper. Germany wanted to see its automobiles to American simply as Japan. So long as the US was the most important consumer-based financial system, it needed to value items in {dollars} to promote them.
When Bretton Woods collapsed in 1971 and the greenback remained the cornerstone of the world financial system, they wanted an evidence for why they had been mistaken. Newsweek got here out with the speculation in 1975. It was all as a result of oil was priced in {dollars}. That was the reply! This has continued to confuse individuals ever since. The largest purpose has been proper in entrance of their nostril, and so they have ignored it – the patron.
- Valuation Strategies:
- FOB (Free on Board): Worth on the exporter’s port, excluding worldwide delivery/insurance coverage prices.
- CIF (Value, Insurance coverage, Freight): Worth on the importer’s port, together with delivery/insurance coverage. This causes discrepancies.
There are completely different valuation strategies to calculate commerce (FOB vs CIF), timing variations (when the transaction is recorded), misclassification, and even smuggling and fraud. For instance, Nation A exports items to Nation B. Nation A data it at FOB worth when it leaves, whereas Nation B data it at CIF when it arrives, resulting in a better import worth in Nation B’s knowledge.
In abstract, calculating commerce numbers entails accumulating knowledge from a number of sources (customs, surveys, monetary establishments), standardizing utilizing worldwide methods (HS codes, BoP pointers), and coping with discrepancies because of completely different methodologies or reporting practices. It’s a fancy course of with room for errors and inconsistencies, which worldwide organizations work to mitigate by means of harmonized pointers.
Commerce numbers, which measure the circulate of products, companies, and cash between nations, are calculated by means of a mix of knowledge assortment, standardization, and worldwide pointers.
Items Commerce Calculation
- Information Sources:
- Customs Declarations: Import/export values are recorded when items cross borders. Declarations embody product sort, amount, and worth.
- Harmonized System (HS Codes): A standardized classification system (6-digit codes) ensures consistency in categorizing items globally.
- Challenges:
- Misclassification of products underneath HS codes.
- Smuggling or underreporting to evade tariffs.
- Timing variations (e.g., items in transit at year-end).
Providers Commerce Calculation
- Information Sources:
- Surveys of companies (e.g., banks, tech companies) offering cross-border companies.
- Monetary data (e.g., royalties, tourism spending, consulting charges).
- Classes: Contains tourism, transportation, mental property, and monetary companies.
- Challenges:
- Intangible nature makes monitoring more durable than items.
- Reliance on self-reporting is inherently inconsistent.
Cash Stream (Monetary Account)
Right here we monitor cross-border investments and capital actions, recorded within the Stability of Funds (BoP)
- Parts:
- International Direct Funding (FDI): Lengthy-term investments (e.g., constructing factories).
- Portfolio Funding: Quick-term flows (e.g., shares, bonds).
- Loans and Banking Flows: Cross-border lending/borrowing.
- Reserves: Central financial institution holdings of foreign exchange.
- Information Sources:
- Central banks and monetary establishments report transactions.
- Worldwide methods like SWIFT monitor cross-border funds.
- Challenges:
- Illicit flows (e.g., tax evasion, cash laundering) are sometimes unreported.
- Change fee fluctuations have an effect on valuations.
Worldwide Frameworks
- Stability of Funds (IMF Tips):
- Present Account: Items, companies, revenue (e.g., dividends), and transfers (e.g., remittances).
- Monetary Account: Data investments and loans.
- Commerce in Worth-Added (TiVA): OECD/WTO initiative to account for provide chains, avoiding double-counting intermediate items.
Understanding commerce numbers requires recognizing the complexity of worldwide methods and the continued efforts to enhance knowledge accuracy by means of worldwide coordination. I helped the Japanese cut back their commerce surplus by buying gold in New York and sending it to London to be resold. As a result of the kind of items being purchased and shipped is irrelevant, the underside line is that commerce is calculated on cash flows. Below the Biden Administration, they seem to have assumed that senile Joe was not all there, and so they took benefit of the scenario. We will see the disaster that has led Trump to take motion.
As one reader wrote, after studying the negativity within the NY Instances and MSNBC, the query that wanted to be answered was: Ought to I commit suicide this week or wait till subsequent week? If Trump stated he would take away all tariffs, they might then say everybody will lose their jobs from the flood of overseas items. They’re now not sincere journalists. They’re simply propagandists. They don’t care in regards to the nation or the individuals. They only need to take the alternative place of Trump, it doesn’t matter what the subject material is perhaps.
They spout the identical Democratic propaganda from the ’30s, claiming that tariffs induced the Nice Melancholy. Some 9000 banks failed, and that was brought on by Sovereign debt defaults, not tariffs. I’m sick and uninterested in the lies. Applications like MSNBC are polarizing the nation and destroying the very basis of the USA primarily based on Marxist propaganda.
The tariff didn’t trigger the financial institution failures. It was the Sovereign Defaults that they tried to omit from the historical past books as a result of they didn’t help their agenda of evil companies, and we want socialism to outlive. Simply as they report nothing however hatred of Trump, Hoover was a Republican, and so they tried to destroy the Republican Occasion again then too.
The NY Instances coated up the failure of Communism, and their prime journalist was even pushing Communism on FDR. When Gareth Jones (1905-1935) in March of 1933 stated the NY Instances was reporting in regards to the success of communism was all a lie, the reality lastly started to appear. It took the New York Instances till 1990 to confess they engaged in pretend information, pushing communism, protecting up the famine in Ukraine, and suggesting that Stalinism was the Utopia they needed to impose in the USA. The NYT wrote that their reporting on the Russian Revolution constituted “some of the worst reporting to appear in this newspaper.” Duranty additionally did this to help Roosevelt’s New Deal. He helped set up drastic progressiveness in taxation.
A prime White Home financial adviser stated on April 6 that greater than 50 nations have contacted the Trump administration to provoke negotiations over a broad swath of tariffs that had been introduced within the first week of April on almost each nation on the earth. Folks had been shocked that Israel had tariffs on US merchandise after every part we do for Israel. The record goes on and on. That is the ONLY option to attain free commerce.
