Even starker, the alliance may have turned from asset into legal responsibility. Iran-backed Iraqi politicians and militia officers rejected Iranian International Minister Abbas Araghchi’s request that they ship reinforcements to Syria in help of Assad.
Iran and its allies will now not have the ability to preserve a army presence in Syria or use the nation as a help hub for Hezbollah. It is going to be pressured to revisit its technique and broader regional insurance policies.
FEARS OF A POPULAR UPRISING
The truth that a popular armed insurrection toppled Assad has set off alarm bells in Moscow and Tehran.
Russia has lengthy considered well-liked revolts in Ukraine and different East European nations as US-engineered efforts to destabilise Russia’s neighbourhood, whereas Iranians have repeatedly taken to the streets in mass anti-government protests over time.
“The scenario within the Islamic Republic shouldn’t be akin to Syria in any respect. Nonetheless, one ought to pay attention to public opinion,” stated conservative politician and journalist Naser Imani to an Iranian media outlet.
Critics eliminated with out clarification social media postings during which they asserted that Iran had wasted assets on supporting an unpopular chief in Syria, an implicit criticism of Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, a pal and staunch supporter of Assad.
Even so, some concern that the collapse of the Assad regime may strengthen the hand of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its hardline supporters. IRGC members asserted that “abandoning” Assad constituted a “betrayal” that may have severe penalties for Iran.
Kasra Aarabi, a Washington-based anti-Iranian activist, quoted a youthful IRGC member as saying: “We zealous youth won’t overlook the cowardice of the decision-makers.”
For Russia and Iran, the silver lining is that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seems extra occupied with specializing in Syria’s rehabilitation and reconstruction moderately than retaliation. In doing so, the rebels might assist Assad’s backers save face whereas taking out considered one of their foremost regional belongings.
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological College’s S Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research, and the creator of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.
