China’s trade surplus hits record high ahead of Trump return

Good morning. In as we speak’s e-newsletter:

• China’s commerce surplus hits report excessive

• Air India tries to win again disgruntled clients

• Hong Kong’s iconic ‘tea eating places’

China’s commerce surplus with the remainder of the world reached a report of just about $1tn in 2024, official information confirmed yesterday, only a week earlier than Donald Trump returns to the White Home with a vow to impose punitive tariffs on the US’s greatest financial rival.

The $992bn Chinese language commerce surplus, greater than a 3rd of which was with the US, is anticipated to gasoline additional tensions with Washington and different buying and selling companions, who’ve pushed again in opposition to a surge of Chinese language exports.

Economists stated the figures benefited from “front-loading” of exports, as producers tried to ship items forward of an anticipated commerce struggle with the incoming Trump administration.

Chinese language producers, in the meantime, have stepped up exports to offset sluggish home demand, with households nonetheless recovering from a three-year property crash on the earth’s second-largest economic system. Read how Trump’s threatened tariffs could affect these trends.

• Associated: Mexico’s authorities yesterday launched a plan to shrink its yawning trade deficit with China and appeal to funding, in an olive department to the incoming Trump administration.

• AI race: The US is imposing expansive export controls on chips used for synthetic intelligence in an effort to make it more durable for China and different adversaries to get entry to superior know-how with army purposes.

Right here’s what else we’re maintaining tabs on as we speak:

• Financial information: India publishes month-to-month wholesale value index inflation charge information.

• India: House know-how firm Pixxel is about to launch the nation’s first private satellite network aboard a SpaceX rocket from California. (Reuters)

Be part of the FT in Davos as we offer stay, on-the-ground evaluation on the World Financial Discussion board’s annual assembly subsequent week. Register here for updates.

5 extra high tales

1. China is constructing a brand new class of cellular piers, which may bolster its potential to land an invading power in Taiwan. The six barge-like vessels may assist the Folks’s Liberation Military transport heavy army gear reminiscent of tanks and artillery throughout mudflats or seawalls on to agency floor. Satellite images show the new mobile piers under construction.

2. EU shipyards are repairing Russian ice-class tankers and providing them dry dock amenities, enabling Moscow to proceed shifting fuel by the Arctic regardless of western sanctions on its power sector. With out the upkeep work, Russia’s Yamal LNG plant would battle to entry essential markets by the winter when northern hemisphere fuel costs are at their highest. Here’s why these activities are not sanctioned.

3. US-led mediators have despatched the ultimate draft of a ceasefire proposal to Israel and Hamas after a “breakthrough” in talks over a deal to finish the struggle in Gaza and safe the discharge of hostages. Folks aware of the matter stated it left the combatants the closest they’ve been in months to ending the battle. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal,” stated one diplomat.

4. Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor are set to launch a joint bid to amass US Metal simply weeks after US President Joe Biden blocked the $15bn takeover of the Pennsylvania-based group by Japan’s Nippon Metal, stated folks briefed on the matter. Cleveland-Cliffs plans to supply lower than $40 a share to purchase the corporate, significantly below the $55 a share that Nippon Steel had agreed to pay final 12 months.

5. Los Angeles was braced for close to “hurricane power” winds yesterday, which climate forecasters stated may fan the devastating wildfires which have swept throughout the US’s second-largest metropolis. As firefighters struggled to include the lethal blazes that continued to rage, the Nationwide Climate service warned the winds could create “explosive fire growth”.

Information in-depth

The chief govt of Air India has hailed the service’s progress in an formidable turnaround beneath its Tata Group proprietor, whereas acknowledging the problem of restoring the repute of the previous state-owned nationwide service that Indians like to complain about. “There’s a blessing and a curse to being the nationwide service,” stated Campbell Wilson, the Singapore Airways veteran employed after Tata purchased Air India in a $2.4bn deal in 2022. Here’s how Air India is trying to win back customers.

Premium FT subscribers can join here for India Enterprise Briefing, the Indian skilled’s must-read e-newsletter on enterprise and coverage. Unique evaluation from my colleague Veena Venugopal will probably be delivered to your inbox each Tuesday and Friday.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• An out-of-the-box concept for China and Trump: Washington and Beijing ought to conduct a joint intervention on the renminbi, writes Mark Sobel, a former US Treasury official.

• Zuckerberg’s cravenness: The person answerable for social media platforms utilized by billions ought to present some moral courage, writes Jemima Kelly.

• The place incumbents received: The global rebellion against those in power doesn’t prolong to growing democracies reminiscent of India and Indonesia, writes Ruchir Sharma.

Chart of the day

Chinese language company earnings are set to indicate a third consecutive year of declines in 2024, with the development anticipated to proceed into this 12 months as deflationary pressures weigh on the world’s second-largest economic system.

Take a break from the information . . . 

Few issues symbolise Hong Kong’s fusion of flavours greater than its iconic cha chaan tengs — or “tea eating places” — that serve a mixture of western imports alongside Chinese language dishes and native innovations. Hongkonger Jason Chau shared a few of his favourites as a part of FT Globetrotter’s guide to Hong Kong.