Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan has unveiled a brand new coverage to deal with “violent extremism” utilizing an unlikely bouquet of instruments, together with faculty curriculum modifications, faith and social media outreach, along with army techniques, at a time when lethal armed assaults are surging.
Nonetheless, many analysts warning that the plan is just too bold, skinny on particulars and tough to execute beneath the general management of a military attuned to utilizing army pressure as its major weapon. Some consultants argue that the Nationwide Prevention of Violent Extremism (NPVE) Coverage, as the brand new plan known as, is in impact “outdated wine in a brand new bottle”.
The most recent coverage, launched for public view final week, comes at a time of escalating violence, significantly within the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan.
In line with figures from the Heart for Analysis and Safety Research (CRSS), an Islamabad-based suppose tank, 2024 was the deadliest yr in practically a decade for Pakistan. The info reveals that 2,526 folks had been killed in assaults final yr – together with practically 700 safety personnel, greater than 900 civilians, and roughly 900 armed fighters.
The vast majority of these assaults had been carried out by the Pakistan Taliban, identified by the acronym TTP, an armed group ideologically linked to the Taliban in Afghanistan. The TTP has been waging an armed riot in opposition to Pakistan since its emergence in 2007.
Whereas Pakistan has launched comparable anti-extremism frameworks previously, the brand new 71-page doc [PDF], ready by the Nationwide Counter Terrorism Authority – an autonomous authorities physique accountable for intelligence gathering, menace assessments, and counterterrorism methods – is completely different, mentioned Dayyab Gillani, NACTA’s director of analysis and improvement.
The important thing shift, based on him, is that the brand new coverage promotes a “whole-of-society” technique to forestall “violent extremism”, together with utilizing “non-kinetic” means. In army terminology, kinetic measures discuss with armed pressure.
“The so-called battle on terror has taught us that army operations alone are usually not a sustainable technique. Kinetic successes are solely non permanent, as they fail to eradicate terrorism at its roots,” Gillani instructed Al Jazeera throughout a latest interview in Islamabad. “The causes and drivers of terrorism had been by no means eliminated, which is why terrorism has resurfaced repeatedly, regardless of short-term features.”
What does the NPVE Coverage say?
Gillani, who joined NACTA two years in the past, mentioned work on the NPVE initially started in 2019, however political instability delayed its completion till 2024. The coverage was authorized by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s cupboard in December.
The coverage presents a “5-R” method – Revisit, Attain Out, Cut back, Reinforce, and Reintegrate – with a sequence of 700 corporate-style key efficiency indicators (KPIs) to measure effectiveness within the quick, medium and long run.
The primary coverage motion, “Revisit”, focuses on reforming the curriculum and fascinating youth and influencers like academics and spiritual leaders. “Attain Out” goals to advertise a nationwide narrative by media and by countering hardline narratives on social media.
“We stay within the age of social media, which has grow to be a significant software for radicalisation,” Gillani mentioned. “This necessitates a revamped communication technique.”
“We should foster a tradition of tolerance, acceptance, and inclusion, the place folks respect social, political, and spiritual variations with out resorting to violence,” he added.
“Cut back” targets youth and girls by peace initiatives and analysis on ladies’s roles in armed riot. “Reinforce” seeks to advertise peace and tolerance by arts, tradition, and scientific innovation.
The ultimate coverage motion, “Reintegrate”, includes de-radicalisation, rehabilitation, and reconciliation programmes for former fighters and conflict-affected communities.
“A state’s basic accountability in the direction of its residents is to supply look after them. Non-kinetic measures, that are empathetic in nature and method, is what the federal government must deal with with a view to counter extremism,” Gillani mentioned.
Army operations and outdated insurance policies
Pakistan has confronted twenty years of armed violence and has launched a number of army operations to fight armed teams.
Following the 9/11 assaults and the next United States invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan grew to become a refuge for Taliban leaders and al-Qaeda members fleeing Afghanistan.
After the TTP gained floor in Pakistan, the military launched a number of campaigns to eradicate them and regain management of the territory. Nonetheless, it was not till the 2014 assault on the Military Public Faculty in Peshawar, during which greater than 140 kids had been killed, that the federal government formulated a Nationwide Motion Plan (NAP) – one in all its first formal frameworks to counter armed riot. Comparable insurance policies have since been launched and up to date.
However Gillani argued that these earlier insurance policies had been “reactive” and primarily targeted on kinetic measures, making the NPVE’s preventive and community-based method distinctive.
“Group engagement is important to success. Kinetic measures depart lasting scars on communities which have suffered violence,” he mentioned. “That’s why we emphasise prevention.”
Coverage implementation challenges
However whereas analysts acknowledge that the NPVE strikes a stability between army and non-military methods — no less than on paper — they warn that the coverage’s bold scope poses implementation challenges.
“Pakistan has a historical past of well-intentioned insurance policies failing as a result of poor implementation. The success of this coverage relies on whether or not the state ensures its correct execution,” mentioned Abdul Basit, a analysis fellow on the S Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research in Singapore.
Comparable considerations had been raised by Iftikhar Firdous, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a platform monitoring regional safety.
“This coverage acknowledges that mental capital is as essential as army motion, as ideologies are sometimes extra influential than weapons. Nonetheless, the coverage’s implementation framework lacks the rigour required to attain its goals,” mentioned Firdous, who relies in Peshawar.
On the coronary heart of these implementation challenges is a central query: Who will get to execute the coverage?
Civilian vs army management
Though NACTA is a civilian establishment, Pakistan’s safety insurance policies have traditionally been dominated by its highly effective army, which has dominated the nation immediately for greater than three a long time and continues to wield vital affect even over civilian governments.
“At a time when the army’s speedy affect in nearly all points of society is seen, NACTA is not any exception, so when a non-militarised framework to cope with violent extremism is carried out by the army, who can assure its success?” Basit, the Singapore-based educational, mentioned.
Firdous concurred that army oversight over the coverage would elevate considerations.
“How can NACTA function successfully whether it is perceived to be encroaching on the jurisdiction of different legislation enforcement businesses? Can a civilian-led NACTA be accepted in a system dominated by the army? These are essential questions that must be answered for consensus constructing and for implementing the coverage,” he added.
Rohan Gunaratna, a professor of safety research on the S Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research, argued that the brand new coverage additionally suffers from one other flaw.
It’s essential for Pakistan to develop “tailor-made coverage choices” that cater to the particular wants of every group of the society, he mentioned.
“Whereas the NPVE Coverage can function a complete guideline, it requires region-specific fashions to handle the distinctive challenges confronted by completely different teams and areas,” Gunaratna instructed Al Jazeera. “A one-size-fits-all method gained’t work.”
