Over the previous few weeks, a number of groups holding playoff spots within the NFL have proven glimpses of who they honestly are.
Though lots can change by the top of the season, Yardbarker is analyzing every present playoff crew’s potential as a Tremendous Bowl contender based mostly on its roster, previous efficiency, and, to a lesser extent, future outlook.
With that in thoughts, here is a have a look at which AFC playoff groups are contenders and pretenders.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (11-1)
Whether or not you like to name it luck or black magic, the Chiefs have one thing particular. Kansas Metropolis clinched a playoff spot on Friday after recovering a botched snap by the Las Vegas Raiders, who have been in discipline purpose vary, with 15 seconds remaining to safe a wild 19-17 house win.
Whereas they’ve handled their share of key accidents, there is not any denying that the Chiefs do not look the a part of an 11-1 crew. Not solely are they averaging their second-fewest factors per sport within the Patrick Mahomes period (24.1), however they’re additionally racking up their fewest yards per contest (341.6).
Moreover, Kansas Metropolis’s +54 level differential is the worst amongst groups which have recorded 11 wins by way of the primary 13 weeks of the common season since 2000, per The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia. To place that in perspective, the opposite 22 groups that achieved this feat had a median level differential of +139.
No matter whether or not their opponent is likely one of the NFL’s elite groups or a backside dweller, the Chiefs proceed to search out themselves in one-score video games. On the floor, this may make Kansas Metropolis appear to be a pretender. Nevertheless, throughout final season’s title run and thru seemingly each win this 12 months, the Chiefs proved that they will rise to the event when the stakes are the best. So long as they’ve Mahomes, they’re going to stay a Tremendous Bowl front-runner.
Verdict: Contender
Buffalo Payments (9-2)
In a season the place they have been anticipated to fall off and the New York Jets have been lastly presupposed to snap their prolonged playoff drought, the Payments are as soon as once more the crew to beat within the AFC East. A fifth consecutive division title will be the most satisfying for Buffalo, contemplating it needed to overhaul its roster this previous offseason, parting methods with a number of longtime contributors.
There was no scarcity of uncertainties surrounding the Payments coming into the season, particularly relating to their receiving corps. Just one vast receiver on the roster had beforehand caught a go from QB Josh Allen, however it hasn’t been a problem because the two-time Professional Bowler has performed like an MVP front-runner. In 11 video games, Allen has amassed 2,859 complete yards and 23 complete touchdowns, taking part in a lot cleaner than he has in seasons previous, tossing simply 5 interceptions.
Underneath Allen, the Payments offense averages the third-most factors (29.1) and Thirteenth-most yards within the league (345.3), which is especially spectacular since we’ve not seen the unit at full energy. As soon as TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Keon Coleman return from accidents and midseason acquisition Amari Cooper continues to get acclimated; the Payments offense may doubtlessly enhance on these marks down the stretch.
It could be tough to place a lot inventory within the Payments as a Tremendous Bowl contender, seeing as if this season has performed out like most of their current ones. Nevertheless, now that Allen has totally grasped OC Joe Brady’s system and the crew is getting more healthy, this might lastly be the 12 months Buffalo will get over the hump.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
Expectations have been comparatively excessive for the Steelers after coming into the season with an upgraded quarterback room, albeit one that includes castoffs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Whereas it isn’t precisely stunning that HC Mike Tomlin is on his method to delivering one other successful season in Pittsburgh, it’s a bit stunning that his crew sits atop the AFC North standings.
A calf harm Wilson suffered in coaching camp opened the door for Fields to be Pittsburgh’s beginning quarterback, and the previous Bear led the crew to a 4-2 document. Regardless of Fields’ serviceable play, Tomlin swapped him out for the veteran Wilson, who guided the Steelers to 4 straight wins earlier than dropping a Week 12 highway contest in opposition to Cleveland.
All through all of it, the imposing Steelers protection has been the spine and identification of the crew. General, the unit has allowed the third-fewest factors (16.9) and seventh-fewest yards per sport (305.18) whereas rating third in turnovers pressured (22). LB T.J. Watt is having fun with one other season worthy of Defensive Participant of the 12 months honors, having notched 7.5 sacks and a league-leading four forced fumbles.
Though Wilson has proven indicators of his former self, the Steelers offense raises doubts in regards to the crew’s Tremendous Bowl potential, because the unit ranks 30th in pink zone scoring effectivity. Nonetheless, with one of many NFL’s high head coaches, in addition to a quarterback with playoff expertise and an elite protection, on their aspect, the Steelers are a professional dark-horse contender.
Verdict: Contender
Houston Texans (7-5)
The luxurious of getting a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract allowed the Texans to aggressively add expertise this previous offseason to develop into a Tremendous Bowl contender. Initially, Houston’s investments paid off, with the crew leaping out to a 5-1 record. Even so, it is changing into more and more obvious because the season progresses that this Texans crew has vital flaws and even lacks the spark final 12 months’s group possessed.
Houston has misplaced 4 of its final six video games, primarily because of its inconsistent, injury-plagued offense. QB C.J. Stroud has additionally regressed, throwing for two,875 yards, 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, 4 greater than he threw in his 2023 OROY Award-winning season. Because of this, the Texans have been one of many worst second-half offenses within the league, failing to search out the top zone after halftime in 5 of their final six video games.
The Texans’ shortcomings do not fall solely on Stroud, as he is taking part in in an unfavorable surroundings. Except for dropping his high three wideouts to accidents at completely different factors within the 12 months, Stroud’s offensive line is likely one of the league’s worst, rating twenty seventh in go block win price (53%) and twenty eighth in run block win price (68%).
Barring a catastrophic collapse, the Texans ought to ultimately clinch their second straight AFC South title. Nonetheless, they have not proven the required flashes to be thought-about one of many NFL’s high contenders, and given their offensive woes, it does not appear to be that can change anytime quickly.
Verdict: Pretender
Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
The Ravens are a a lot completely different crew than the one which misplaced to the Chiefs in final season’s AFC Championship Sport, however they’re nonetheless among the finest within the NFL.
Baltimore made some of the vital free agent acquisitions this previous offseason, signing RB Derrick Henry to type the NFL’s greatest offensive duo alongside QB Lamar Jackson. Henry has rushed for 1,325 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns, whereas Jackson has accounted for probably the most complete yards (3,652) and touchdowns (30) amongst signal-callers.
Though the offense can look almost unstoppable at occasions, Baltimore’s protection has been an issue, which is not stunning because the crew misplaced former DC Mike Macdonald and some starters through the offseason. The Ravens bolstered their secondary by way of the draft, however their go protection has been abysmal, permitting probably the most yards (3,569) and third-most touchdowns (22) amongst groups by way of the air. It’s price noting that the unit could also be turning a nook, as Baltimore has solely allowed 41 factors over the past two video games.
There is no doubt that the Ravens have some brutal losses poking holes of their resume, particularly these to Cleveland, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. But when the protection continues to play at its present degree, Baltimore’s expertise outweighs any concern about its standing as a Tremendous Bowl contender.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
One of many greatest winners of the offseason, the Chargers made as substantial of a head teaching improve as a crew may make, changing Brandon Staley with Jim Harbaugh. The 60-year-old Harbaugh has rapidly modified the tradition in Los Angeles, and the crew is firmly within the playoff image, which was sudden, given the state of the roster coming into the season.
On account of wage cap constraints, the Chargers have been pressured to chop ties with their two greatest vast receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Happily for Los Angeles, the Justin Herbert-led offense has fared simply effective, rating 18th in scoring and displaying steady indicators of enchancment.
Los Angeles’ protection has arguably been probably the most stunning unit within the NFL this season and a driving pressure behind the crew’s success. By means of 11 video games, the Chargers have allowed the fewest factors (175) and eighth-fewest yards amongst groups (3,560), a dramatic turnaround from a unit that completed twenty fourth in scoring and twenty eighth in yardage last season. It is doable, nevertheless, that the Chargers protection’s efficiency will decline, contemplating it gave up 57 factors in its final two video games and now has three starters sidelined with accidents.
Whereas the Chargers have confirmed they’re robust for any opponent to beat, they will not make a lot noise within the playoffs. In spite of everything, Harbaugh inherited a tough state of affairs, they usually’re simply 1-4 in opposition to successful groups, with the lone win coming in opposition to the Broncos. But when Los Angeles can add a real No. 1 vast receiver for Herbert this offseason, it must be on the brief checklist of contenders to win Tremendous Bowl LX.
Verdict: Pretender
Denver Broncos (7-5)
Wilson’s disastrous Broncos tenure appears like ages in the past, which is a testomony to the stellar job HC Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix have completed this season. Payton confronted his share of criticism after pushing the nine-time Professional Bowler Wilson out of city and changing him with the 24-year-old Nix, however the Oregon product has been an ideal match for his scheme.
After a lackluster first two begins to his profession, Nix has hit his stride, rising as one of many main candidates for the Offensive Rookie of the 12 months Award. Since Week 3, Nix has thrown the seventh-most touchdowns within the NFL (16) and simply two interceptions whereas posting a 65.7% completion price. Contemplating Nix appears to be enhancing with every passing begin, it is truthful to say Denver’s Nineteenth-ranked scoring offense has but to succeed in its full potential.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, few groups have a extra formidable unit than the Broncos protection, which is headlined by All-Professional CB Patrick Surtain II. Along with rating first in sacks (44), third in pressures (124) and tenth in takeaways (15) this season, Denver’s protection permits the second-fewest factors (16.8) and third-fewest yards per sport (296).
Regardless of their success this season, the Broncos are one other ascending crew that appears like they are a 12 months away from with the ability to mount a deep playoff run. Denver’s 16-14 Week 10 highway loss to Kansas Metropolis confirmed that it could possibly compete in opposition to the NFL’s high groups and will perhaps steal a sport. However finally, its 1-5 document in opposition to groups that now maintain successful data is not possible to dismiss.
Verdict: Pretender
