Dhaka, Bangladesh — On the afternoon of July 16, 2024, as Abu Sayeed, a scholar chief on the forefront of protests towards then-Prime Minister Sheikh Haisna’s management, was shot useless by police in Rangpur – a northern district – a strikingly totally different scene was unfolding within the capital, Dhaka.
On the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, Abdur Rahman, a senior chief of Hasina’s Awami League and a minister in her authorities, sat unperturbed in his workplace having fun with a poetry recital by a neighborhood poet.
A video from that day captures Abdur Rahman reclining in his chair, resting his fist towards his proper cheek, listening casually. In the direction of the top, he provided a lighthearted response: “Great.”
Moments later, when knowledgeable by an aide of the escalating unrest following Sayeed’s killing, he dismissed the considerations, saying, “Oh, nothing will occur. The chief [Hasina] will deal with every little thing.”
That distinction between the stress exploding into lethal violence on the streets of Bangladesh and the minister’s seemingly informal manner has since come to epitomise, for a lot of within the nation, the Awami League’s disconnect from grassroots realities amid nationwide tumult.
Lower than three weeks later, the Hasina authorities, accused of authoritarianism and brutality, was toppled by a student-led uprising. A minimum of 834 folks lost their lives in assaults on protesters and bystanders by legislation enforcement officers. The protests started on July 1 and ended on August 5 with Hasina fleeing to India. Greater than 20,000 others have been injured, together with ladies and youngsters.
The upheaval introduced down the curtains on Hasina’s 16-year management. Now, 5 months later, her celebration – which has been a serious power in Bangladeshi politics since earlier than the nation’s beginning – remains to be struggling to choose up the items. A pointy divide is rising between unapologetic celebration honchos and mid-level leaders and activists who imagine the Awami League must replicate on the place it went unsuitable – and that the way in which during which the 75-year-old political celebration addresses that chasm may decide its future.
A celebration divided
Many Awami League leaders proceed to deflect accountability.
“We’re victims of a world conspiracy; this shall be confirmed quickly,” the celebration’s joint-secretary, AFM Bahauddin Nasim, instructed Al Jazeera over the cellphone from an undisclosed location on January 16. He didn’t specify whom he was accusing.
Analysts argue that such claims spotlight the management’s denial of its failures and incapacity to handle public grievances.
This, in flip, is alienating grassroots members of the celebration, lots of whom are actually in hiding or terrified of authorized repercussions over the killings. They lament the celebration’s transformation from an organisation related with the lots to a top-down construction that misplaced contact with public sentiments.
On August 5, 2024, as large crowds marched in the direction of Hasina’s official residence, the then-prime minister joined her sister Sheikh Rehana in fleeing Ganabhaban (the prime minister’s residence) on board a army helicopter.
“Whereas the dramatic escape was being broadcast on TV, I used to be nonetheless on the streets of Khulna with some activists. I attempted calling our senior chief, the native lawmaker, however his cellphone was switched off,” a senior native chief of the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL), the Awami League’s scholar wing, within the southwestern metropolis of Khulna, instructed Al Jazeera, requesting anonymity.
“At that second, I felt cheated.”
On October 23, 2024, the interim authorities led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus banned the BCL. The once-influential BCL chief from Khulna recounted his harrowing journey to security. He fled to neighbouring Gopalganj earlier than relocating to Dhaka underneath a false id.
“I’ve modified my Fb account, cellphone quantity, and every little thing. I’ve began a small enterprise to outlive. The celebration deserted us. I’ll by no means return to politics,” he stated.
Comparable emotions of abandonment have been shared by grassroots activists throughout the nation.
Whereas many members stay silent, Samiul Bashir, a joint secretary of the Bangladesh Krishak League, a pro-Awami League organisation, has been vocal on social media platforms.
“Dedicated activists have been sidelined for years. Since 2014, opportunists and relations of native lawmakers have dominated celebration buildings on the grassroots, resulting in the disaster,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Talking on situation of anonymity, a pacesetter of a pro-Awami League medical doctors’ affiliation echoed related frustrations. “The actions and phrases of those that rose to be the face of the celebration have been disastrous, notably prior to now couple of years.”
Reflecting on the celebration’s failures, he instructed Al Jazeera: “It was a harsh actuality that our celebration turned closely reliant on intelligence experiences to make selections. I discovered many prime leaders unaware of how selections have been made or who have been making them.”
Analysts say the shortage of democratic practices additionally plunged the celebration into disarray. Over the previous decade, all grassroots items of the Awami League and its affiliated organisations within the Dhaka metropolitan space, as an example, have been working with outdated committees, counting on the identical outdated members with none modifications.
No regret
The Awami League has but to subject a proper apology or assertion acknowledging its authorities’s heavy-handed actions through the student-led rebellion, often called the “July motion”.
As an alternative, the celebration repeatedly dismissed the motion, with statements – similar to a January 10 press launch from its youth wing, the Jubo League – describing it as a “terrorist rebellion”, allegedly orchestrated by forces aiming to push the nation in the direction of a “Pakistani ideology”.
In the course of the practically one-hour dialog with Al Jazeera, Nasim additionally repeatedly accused Islami Chhatra Shibir, the scholar wing of the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) celebration, of “deceptive” college students underneath the guise of the anti-quota motion. The 2024 anti-quota motion in Bangladesh started as a scholar protest towards the reinstatement of a discriminatory quota system in public jobs. Escalating as a consequence of authorities repression and widespread bloodshed, it advanced right into a broader rebellion towards Hasina’s authorities.
The Jamaat has lengthy had a controversial place in Bangladeshi politics, because it opposed the nation’s independence from Pakistan in 1971.
In the course of the Awami League’s latest management, 5 prime Jamaat leaders and one senior chief from the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion (BNP) have been executed for struggle crimes. Each the BNP and Jamaat confronted extreme crackdowns underneath the Hasina authorities, together with widespread enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.
Nasim admitted to Al Jazeera that his celebration had made “strategic missteps” however attributed its failures primarily to “intelligence lapses”.
Nonetheless, Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, a detailed aide of Hasina and residential minister for 11 years till the removing of the federal government, claimed in a latest interview with the Indian Specific, a serious Indian newspaper, that the Awami League had been the sufferer of a “joint coup” carried out by “Islamic terrorists and the military”.
Others near the celebration disagree.
Tanjim Ahmad Sohel Taj, the son of Bangladesh’s first Prime Minister Tajuddin Ahmad and former state minister for house affairs, lamented the shortage of accountability inside the celebration.
“The Awami League should apologise to the folks of Bangladesh for the injustices, oppression, corruption, plundering and laundering of billions. I’ve but to see any self-realisation, self-criticism, or act of contrition,” he stated in a tv interview.
Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, an analyst and professor of political science at Jahangirnagar College in Dhaka, argued that the celebration’s hardline stances and selections fuelled public outrage, paving the way in which for the rebellion’s success.
“Fanatical measures finally damage Sheikh Hasina’s recognition, turning her resignation right into a singular demand,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Resurrection – an uphill battle
Hasina will not be unfamiliar with exile – or with comebacks.
After the assassination of independence chief Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and most of his household on August 15, 1975, Hasina, his daughter, stayed in India for a number of years.
However she returned to Bangladesh to steer the Awami League in 1981. It took 21 years to rebuild the celebration and are available again to energy.
“This time, nevertheless, is totally different; the celebration fell to a bloody student-led rebellion supported by the army, and Sheikh Hasina’s picture as a pacesetter is severely tarnished,” Hasanuzzman stated.
He argued that the Awami League faces a extreme picture and management disaster. “With out Sheikh Hasina, rebuilding the celebration shall be difficult, and inside divisions are possible,” he stated.
The BNP and the Jamaat, the 2 different main political forces within the nation, have each stated that they need Awami League leaders and activists concerned within the killings of residents final July and August to face trial. In the end, nevertheless, they’ve argued that the destiny of the Awami League can be determined by the nation’s folks.
Nonetheless, the scholar motion that led the marketing campaign to take away Hasina has taken a way more uncompromising place on the way forward for the Awami League.
In a road rally on January 25, Mahfuz Alam, an adviser to the interim Yunus authorities and a key chief of the scholar motion, stated that the Awami League wouldn’t be allowed to take part within the subsequent elections, which Yunus has stated shall be held by early 2026.
“Our focus consists of prosecuting individuals involved in murders, disappearances and rapes whereas implementing reforms and making certain honest elections with the participation of all pro-Bangladesh political events,” he stated.
From the Awami League’s perspective, the elections may show essential. “If AL [Awami League] can take part within the election, it should create a foothold for the celebration to return,” Hasanuzzaman stated.
“But, political revival may be very tough for [the] Awami League with out rebuilding public belief by management, organisation and grassroots connection,” he added.
Ali Riaz, a political analyst and professor at Illinois State College, outlined 4 circumstances that the Awami League would want to satisfy for any likelihood of a possible comeback: issuing an unequivocal apology for crimes dedicated throughout its 16 years in energy, notably the 2024 rebellion; renouncing its present ideology; making certain that no member of Hasina’s household leads the celebration once more; and dealing with trials for committing heinous crimes together with crimes towards humanity.
“These instantly accountable for the atrocities through the July rebellion together with Sheikh Hasina should face trials. Any dialogue on their comeback can happen provided that these circumstances are met,” Riaz instructed Al Jazeera. Riaz can also be the vice chairman of a Yunus-led authorities fee tasked with constructing a consensus on a sequence of proposed reforms.
Nonetheless, many Awami League activists proceed to think about Hasina, although they often criticise the misuse of energy by her household in non-public.
Senior leaders overseas are utilizing social media and speak exhibits to induce them to regroup and counsel that the Yunus-led authorities is “going to fail”.
However that’s a tough promote to celebration activists. Within the feedback part under these assertions by celebration leaders, these junior Awami League leaders are pushing again – declaring that it’s simple for exiled leaders to talk from the sanctuary of a international land, when activists on the bottom are scattered and in hiding throughout Bangladesh.
Like the previous Khulna scholar chief, lots of them are too afraid to disclose their identities publicly. A political comeback feels a great distance off.
