The time had come to bend the knee — or at the least bend to actuality.
A delegation of Russian diplomats arrived final Tuesday in a caravan of white SUVs for a summit in Damascus and an unenviable task: lay the groundwork for Russia to maintain its navy bases in Syria, lower than two months after rebels had toppled Moscow’s most popular strongman, Bashar al-Assad.
To take action, the delegation would want to win over a individuals the Russian navy had bombed ruthlessly, serving to Mr. al-Assad, for years.
Awaiting them was Ahmed al-Shara, who had survived a decade of Russian airstrikes to emerge as Syria’s new interim chief. He stood within the presidential palace and confronted the Kremlin’s envoys for a long-awaited reckoning.
The talks that ensued, the primary between Moscow and Damascus because the finish of the almost 14-year battle, ended unresolved. However they marked the start of probably drawn-out negotiations about what function, if any, Russia will play in postwar Syria, having misplaced its bid to maintain Mr. al-Assad in energy.
The assembly demonstrated the form of geopolitical horse-trading that has begun within the aftermath of Syria’s civil battle — with the potential to remake the Center East. World powers are jockeying for affect, as Syria’s fledgling management tries to win legitimacy, safety and assist by way of disciplined and stony-eyed realpolitik.
“I believe the final air in Damascus is, ‘We Syrians don’t want a struggle with anybody at this level, together with our former enemies,’” mentioned Charles Lister, a senior fellow on the Center East Institute in Washington. “So de-escalation and pragmatism are the names of the sport.”
Nonetheless, it was the Russians who had been requested to make concessions. Mr. al-Shara emphasised that any new relations with Moscow “should deal with previous errors,” and requested compensation for the destruction Russia triggered, his authorities mentioned in an announcement.
He additionally demanded that Moscow hand over Mr. al-Assad and his high associates to face justice, based on two officers within the caretaker authorities with data of the assembly.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a former spy who prizes loyalty, nearly actually wouldn’t agree. Requested the day after the assembly whether or not Mr. al-Shara requested Mr. al-Assad’s extradition, Mr. Putin’s spokesman declined to remark.
Mr. al-Shara in any other case appeared surprisingly amenable to cooperating with Russia, versus Iran, Mr. al-Assad’s other key ally, which the brand new authorities in Damascus have mentioned is not welcome in Syria.
In an interview with the BBC in late December, Mr. al-Shara cited Syria’s “longstanding strategic relations” with Moscow and mentioned he was “not in a rush to get Russia out of Syria, as some individuals think about.”
He famous, in a separate interview with Saudi state tv, that Russia has equipped the Syrian navy’s arms for many years and gives consultants who run Syria’s energy vegetation. The implication: Damascus might have Russia sooner or later.
“They’re completely determined for legitimacy and worldwide assist,” Mr. Lister mentioned of Syria’s new leaders. “Inflicting any massive worldwide rupture could be the worst factor they might take into account doing.”
Past potential deliveries of oil and grain from Russia, what Mr. al-Shara wants is for Moscow to not play spoiler in his effort to reconstruct Syria and construct a authorities, mentioned Hanna Notte, an analyst on the James Martin Heart for Nonproliferation Research.
“It is a nation that’s now, politically talking, being constructed from the ashes,” she mentioned. She identified that the Russians are everlasting members of the U.N. Safety Council and will impede Mr. al-Shara in some ways, ought to they resolve to not be “politically benevolent.”
Mr. al-Shara himself has famous Russia is taken into account the world’s second-most highly effective navy, and mentioned his newly shaped authorities isn’t ready to oppose main powers.
On the assembly, the place Russia was represented by its high Center East envoy, Deputy International Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, neither aspect seemed to be in a rush to make any massive selections. What the remainder of the world, and particularly america, European Union, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, demand from Syria’s new leaders may additionally affect Russia’s destiny.
In current weeks, a flurry of diplomats from these and different nations have arrived in Damascus to fulfill Mr. al-Shara.
Russia desires to maintain its naval base on the Mediterranean at Tartus, which dates to the Soviet period. It additionally seeks to keep up the Hmeimim Air Base outdoors Latakia, which Moscow has used as a provide and stopover hub for expeditionary operations in Africa. To date, the brand new Syrian authorities haven’t mentioned no, and Russia has stayed put, regardless of transferring materiel off the bases.
Syria’s pragmatic rhetoric has been reciprocated in Moscow.
After years of defending the Assad regime on the battlefield and on the United Nations, Russian leaders have spun the lack of their longtime ally as a win and prolonged an olive department to the brand new authorities, whom Moscow had lengthy denounced as terrorists.
“I might name it improvised opportunism,” Ms. Notte mentioned. “It’s a fairly exceptional pivot.”
Mr. Putin, talking in December at his annual information convention, mentioned Russia had received, slightly than misplaced, in Syria, as a result of Moscow had prevented the nation from changing into a terrorist enclave. He mentioned he had but to even see Mr. al-Assad, although he dedicated to assembly him in some unspecified time in the future. It’s unclear if they’ve met since.
The Russian chief supplied using Russia’s bases to ship humanitarian assist to the Syrian individuals, who simply weeks earlier than had been weathering Russian airstrikes.
He would hold Russia’s presence there, he mentioned, provided that Moscow’s pursuits coincided with these of the political forces that had taken management.
On the United Nations, the Russian ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, mentioned in January that these forces had been “behaving fairly competently.” The friendship between Russia and Syria, he emphasised, is “not linked to any regime.”
The navy go well with and tie Mr. al-Shara wore to the assembly with the Russian envoys belied his previous as an Al Qaeda fighter turned Islamist insurgent chief. So did his nonconfrontational rhetoric within the run-up to the talks, and his professed willingness to make good with former foes, together with america.
Mr. al-Shara welcomed a high State Division delegation in December, regardless of having as soon as frolicked in Iraq imprisoned by U.S. forces and having been designated a terrorist by the U.S. authorities with a $10 million bounty. (Washington withdrew the bounty after the talks.)
Mr. al-Shara wants sanctions aid from america, in addition to Washington’s assist on the Safety Council, for Syria to start an financial restoration and entry worldwide assist.
The US additionally nonetheless has troops on the bottom, backing Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria that Mr. al-Shara doesn’t management. He has said his need to maintain the nation complete, which would come with that territory, the place Washington backed native forces to destroy the Islamic State.
European officers have visited Damascus and supplied a path to sanctions aid however have made clear that they might disapprove of the retention of a Russian navy presence within the nation.
How the Trump administration will method the query is unclear. In December, because the Assad regime fell, Mr. Trump mentioned on social media that the battle in Syria was “not our struggle” and that america ought to don’t have anything to do with it.
The query of Mr. al-Assad’s destiny provides to the fragile nature of the negotiations between Moscow and Damascus.
Mr. al-Shara continues to be making an attempt to determine legitimacy among the many Syrian individuals and disparate Syrian teams, and putting a take care of Russia whereas it’s harboring the strongman who killed so many Syrians may undercut his standing. That’s one purpose delaying any dedication to Moscow may make sense.
Mr. Lister described the request for Mr. al-Assad as a maximalist opening demand, attribute of early-stage negotiations.
“It hits the mark when it comes to laying down the precept: ‘We could also be prepared to be pragmatic at the moment, however we’ve got not forgotten historical past,’” Mr. Lister mentioned. “Russia’s complicity in all method of battle crimes in Syria just isn’t one thing Syrians might be forgetting anytime quickly.”
Inside Syria, Mr. al-Shara continues to be pursuing remnants of the Assad regime’s pressure to consolidate management; Moscow may make that job harder.
Although the lack of the bases in Syria would dent Russia’s energy within the area, Moscow probably has different choices. The Kremlin’s backing of the navy ruler of jap Libya may provide another location for a Russian naval base on the Mediterranean. Already, Russia has been utilizing Libyan air bases for flights.
The standing of the Russian bases in Syria will not be resolved quickly.
“I believe that either side profit from delaying the negotiations on the destiny of the bases,” mentioned Anton Mardasov, a Russian navy affairs knowledgeable specializing in Syria. “Moscow can thus protect its picture, because it has already managed to carry out so long as potential and never go away instantly after the autumn of the Assad regime, and Damascus can for now negotiate the lifting of sanctions”
