Barely every week after President Joe Biden dropped out from the US presidential race, his deputy Kamala Harris emerged as the highest contender to get the Democratic nomination following a string of endorsements from senior occasion leaders, together with former President Barack Obama.
Different outstanding Democrats who’ve thrown their weight behind Harris, 59, embody Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries, former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer.
If confirmed because the Democratic Occasion’s official presidential nominee, Harris, a former California prosecutor, might doubtlessly grow to be the primary lady – and the primary African American-Indian candidate – to make it to the White Home.
On Tuesday Harris picked Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her working mate.
Current opinion polls recommended that Biden has been dropping Black voters. Within the 2020 elections, 87 p.c of Black voters opted to assist Biden. However in Could this yr, a Pew Analysis Ballot of Black voters discovered that solely 77 p.c indicated that they’d select Biden over Republican nominee Donald Trump for president on this yr’s elections.
So, can Kamala Harris flip this downward trend round earlier than the November election if she is confirmed because the Democratic candidate?
What’s the historical past of Black voter assist for the Democratic Occasion?
Assist for the Democrats has historically been excessive amongst Black voters, reaching a excessive of 95 p.c throughout Obama’s tenure in 2008.
Since Franklin D Roosevelt received the presidency in 1932, the Democratic Occasion has obtained nearly all of Black votes. Whereas there isn’t any information for 1932, in keeping with the Joint Heart for Political and Financial Research, Roosevelt gained 71 p.c of the Black vote for his presidency in 1936.
Within the early Nineteen Thirties, Black communities strongly supported Roosevelt’s New Deal programmes which tried to deal with the financial and racial points and scale back inequalities within the wake of the Nice Despair.
The Works Progress Administration (WPA), Public Works Administration (PWA) and different programmes supplied jobs for hundreds of thousands of Individuals, together with African Individuals and employment charges rose.
Moreover, First Girl Eleanor Roosevelt had additionally lengthy been an advocate for civil rights for Black Individuals, serving to to cement assist for Roosevelt.
How has Black assist for Democrats fluctuated over the many years?
Within the 1964 presidential election, Lyndon B Johnson obtained 94 p.c of the Black vote on account of his sturdy advocacy of civil rights laws which ultimately led to the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Though voting rights for the African American inhabitants had been granted below Republican Abraham Lincoln again in 1870 as a part of the fifteenth Modification, it was Johnson who enforced the rights by addressing racial discrimination within the voting course of.
Black voter assist for the Democrats fell to 83 p.c within the 1992 election, when Democratic Governor of Arkansas Invoice Clinton beat incumbent Republican President George HW Bush.
Black assist for the Democrats went as much as 87 p.c in 2020. However some Black voters have been gravitating away from the occasion with Black assist coming down to simply 77 p.c, in keeping with the most recent polls.
What number of Black individuals are more likely to vote Trump?
Within the latest Pew Analysis ballot, 18 p.c of Black registered voters mentioned they had been leaning in the direction of a vote for Trump.
That represents a 50 p.c enhance from the 12 p.c of Black votes Trump obtained within the 2020 election.
Nonetheless, there seems to be a big enhance of assist amongst Black voters for Trump, in keeping with some polls, since Harris has entered the presidential race.
In keeping with a latest New York Instances/Siena Faculty survey taken from July 22 to July 24 on the query, “If the 2024 presidential election had been held at present, who would you vote for if the candidates had been Harris and Trump?”, Harris is at 47 p.c whereas Trump is 48 p.c for doubtless voters.
For registered Black voters, it polled 72 p.c for Harris, and 19 p.c for Trump.
Earlier than Harris turned the presumptive Democratic nominee, a New York Instances/Siena Faculty survey on July 2 confirmed Biden polling 41 p.c and Trump main at 49 p.c amongst registered nationwide voters.
For registered Black voters, it polled 73 p.c for Biden, and 15 p.c for Trump.
Nonetheless, in a latest Reuters/Ipsos nationwide presidential poll, Kamala led Trump 44 p.c to 42 p.c. The ballot was taken days following the Republican Nationwide Conference in July
Can Kamala Harris reverse the downward pattern?
A gradual stream of donations suggests Harris has introduced again a little bit of enthusiasm to the Democratic Occasion, particularly the Black voting bloc.
Final week, Win With Black Ladies, a community of Black girls leaders, organised a Zoom name to assist Harris. Almost 44,000 individuals, principally girls, joined the decision and the group was in a position to elevate greater than $1.5m in below three hours.
That very same week, Greater than 53,000 Black males participated within the Win With Black Males digital convention on Monday night time, displaying their assist for Harris. The organisers introduced that it efficiently raised greater than $1.3m in 4 hours.
In keeping with the Harris marketing campaign, she has introduced in $200m throughout the first week of her presidential marketing campaign, with 66 p.c of all donations coming from first-time donors. Harris has raised a complete of $310m within the month of July.
Harris’s polling figures are anticipated to enhance when she is formally introduced because the Democratic candidate, and she or he has already gained in recognition since Biden dropped out and endorsed her on July 21.
Which Black leaders have endorsed Kamala Harris?
Consultant Jim Clyburn, one of the crucial important Black senators within the Democratic Occasion, has endorsed Harris.
Clyburn has performed a pivotal function in endorsing political candidates, together with former President Obama in 2008 when he was Home majority whip and one of the crucial highly effective Democrats within the Home.
Clyburn’s endorsement of Biden earlier than the South Carolina Democratic main in 2020 is extensively credited for revitalising Biden’s marketing campaign, resulting in a decisive victory and subsequently propelling him to safe the Democratic nomination and win the presidency.
Clyburn cited Biden’s selection of Harris for VP as one of many fundamental causes he had chosen to endorse him.
“One in every of President Biden’s first choices because the nominee was to pick a working mate that he believed possessed the values and imaginative and prescient essential to proceed this nation’s pursuit towards a ‘extra good Union.’ I echo the great judgment he demonstrated in deciding on Vice President Harris to guide this nation alongside him, and I’m proud to observe his lead in assist of her candidacy to succeed him because the Democratic Occasion’s 2024 nominee for President,” Clyburn mentioned in a press release.
Harris managed to safe the assist of Bernice King, daughter of Martin Luther King Jr, marking the primary time King has made a political endorsement publicly.
The Congressional Black Caucus, which has greater than 60 members of the Home of Representatives and the Senate, representing greater than 120 million Individuals, endorsed Kamala Harris on July 22.
Collectively, each Black legal professional basic within the US has endorsed Harris with a latest submit on the X account of Letitia James, the primary African American to preside as New York legal professional basic.
In September 2022, James filed a lawsuit in opposition to Trump within the civil fraud case accusing him of fraudulently inflating asset values to safe beneficial loans and insurance coverage offers.
What challenges would possibly Kamala Harris face?
In keeping with consultants, the Harris marketing campaign would possibly inherit a few of the criticisms of many Biden insurance policies on account of her being the present vice chairman.
A latest Reuters/Ipsos poll taken final month, nonetheless means that voters favor Trump over Biden. Registered voters picked Trump 43 p.c to 37 p.c. Harris must cope with how the present economic system stands whereas answering for the rise in inflation throughout the Biden administration. Current experiences present that inflation has slowed in latest months.
“Importantly, shelter prices, a significant contributor to year-over-year inflation proceed to sluggish. Nonetheless, core providers costs stay sticky and are slowing progress,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Convention Board, wrote in a quick.
Immigration, which has been a sore spot for the Biden administration on account of excessive border crossings has seen its fifth consecutive month-to-month drop in migrant apprehensions in July. In keeping with the federal company Customs and Border Safety, border crossings by undocumented immigrants on the US-Mexico border noticed a 66 p.c drop in month-to-month crossings. In December 2023, there have been roughly 250,000 crossings, whereas in June 2024, there have been 64,000 crossings.
Though not talked about as steadily as different points, Harris was not too long ago interviewed by The Root, a information publication that primarily caters to Black audiences, about her stance on reparations for slavery.
“I believe there needs to be some type of reparations and we might talk about what that’s, however look, we’re greater than 200 years of slavery,” Harris mentioned.
Nonetheless, in a 2019 interview with theGrio, a information and way of life media organisation that focuses on the African-American group, when requested about reparations, Harris acknowledged: “So I’m not gonna sit right here and say I’m going to do one thing that’s solely going to learn Black individuals. No. As a result of no matter advantages that Black household will profit that group and society as a complete and the nation, proper?”
Harris’s report throughout her 12 years as district legal professional of San Francisco and California’s legal professional basic has been within the highlight, with a few of her insurance policies have are available for criticism.
Some progressives argue that her anti-truancy legal guidelines and rejection of DNA testing from a Black man on dying row had been inexcusable. Nonetheless, her programme, Again on Monitor, to assist younger individuals arrested on non-violent drug offences to get job coaching and substance abuse help was fairly progressive.
In an interview with The Guardian, Insha Rahman, director of Vera Motion, an organisation advocating in opposition to mass incarceration, acknowledged: “The longstanding model of Kamala Harris proudly owned the function of being ‘prime cop’ and customarily shied away from taking progressive stances on prison justice reform. She performed it protected and down the center.”
