New Delhi, India – Gegong Jijong lined up with tons of of different protesters on a chilly afternoon final month close to the Siang River in India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, shouting antigovernment slogans.
“No dam over Ane Siang [Mother Siang],” the protesters in Parong village demanded.
The Siang River, chopping by serene hills, has been thought of sacred for hundreds of years by Jijong’s ancestors within the Adi tribal neighborhood – farmers whose livelihood relied on its water.
However all of that’s now in danger, he mentioned, as India strikes to construct its largest dam over their land.
The $13.2bn Siang Higher Multipurpose Venture may have a reservoir that may maintain 9 billion cubic metres of water and generate 11,000 megawatts of electrical energy upon completion – greater than every other Indian hydroelectric mission. It was first proposed in 2017, and officers at the moment are finishing up feasibility surveys.
Locals, nonetheless, warn that at the very least 20 villages shall be submerged, and practically two dozen extra villages will partly drown, uprooting hundreds of residents.
Amid intensifying resistance from locals, the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) -led state authorities has ordered the deployment of paramilitary forces to quell protests, although there haven’t been any clashes but.
The protesters insist that they aren’t going anyplace. “The federal government is taking up my residence, our Ane Siang, and changing it into an trade. We can not let that occur,” mentioned Jijong, the president of the Siang Indigenous Farmers’ Discussion board (SIFF) neighborhood initiative. “Until the time I’m alive and respiratory, we won’t let the federal government assemble this dam.”
However the BJP authorities argues that the protesters have gotten it unsuitable. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has insisted that it’s “not only a hydro dam,” however that its “actual goal is to avoid wasting the Siang River”.
From China.
A fragile ecosystem
On the coronary heart of the Indian dam mission that Jijong and his neighborhood are opposing is a geostrategic contest for water and safety between New Delhi and Beijing, who’re locked in a tense rivalry that, in recent times, has additionally at instances exploded into lethal border clashes.
The Siang River originates close to Mount Kailash in Tibet, the place it is called the Yarlung Zangbo. It then enters Arunachal Pradesh and turns into a lot wider. Generally known as the Brahmaputra in most of India, it then flows into Bangladesh earlier than sinking into the Bay of Bengal.
Final month, China authorised the development of its most ambitious – and the world’s largest – dam over the Yarlung Zangbo, in Tibet’s Medog county, proper earlier than it enters Indian territory.
Quickly after China first formally introduced its plan to assemble the dam in 2020, officers in New Delhi began significantly considering a counter-dam to “mitigate the adversarial affect of the Chinese language dam initiatives”. The Indian authorities argues that the Siang dam’s giant reservoir would offset the disruption within the move of the river by the upcoming Medog dam, and safeguard towards flash floods or water shortage.
However the presence of two big dams in a Himalayan area with a fragile ecosystem and a historical past of devastating floods and earthquakes poses severe threats to tens of millions of people that stay there and additional downstream, warning specialists and local weather activists. And India and China’s harmful energy tussle over Himalayan water sources might disproportionately damage Indigenous communities.
‘Main flashpoint’
The brand new mega-dam in Medog county over the Yarlung Zangbo will dwarf even the Three Gorges Dam, at the moment the world’s largest hydro dam, in central China. Beijing says that the mission shall be very important in assembly its net-zero emissions purpose by 2060, and Chinese language information companies reported that the dam will value $137bn. There is no such thing as a fast readability on how many individuals shall be displaced on the Chinese language aspect.
The dam’s building, on the Nice Bend close to Mount Namcha Barwa, can even be an engineering marvel of types. Because the water falls into one of many deepest gorges on the planet – with a depth exceeding 5,000 metres (16,400 ft) – it should generate about 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electrical energy yearly.
The large new mission is the most recent in a collection of dams – the earlier ones had been smaller – that China has constructed on the Yarlung Zangbo and its tributaries, mentioned BR Deepak, professor of Chinese language research on the Jawaharlal Nehru College (JNU), New Delhi.
And these dams “must be thought of as one of many main flashpoints between India and China,” he mentioned, citing how “among the largest conflicts have originated out of the trans-water rivers”. The water of the tributaries of the Indus River is a significant bone of rivalry between India and Pakistan. Ethiopia and Egypt, in the meantime, are locked in a dispute over an enormous dam that Ethiopia is constructing on the Nile.
However India’s response, by developing a dam over the Siang River, “provides gas to the hearth,” mentioned Deepak. “Until China retains damming these rivers, fears and anxieties will proceed and stoke robust responses from decrease riparian nations.”
A report by the Lowy Institute, an Australian suppose tank, in 2020 argued that management over rivers originating within the Tibetan Plateau basically offers China a “chokehold” over India’s financial system.
The ‘chokehold’
All through historical past, the Yarlung Zangbo was typically recognized in China because the “river gone rogue”: Not like different main Chinese language rivers that move west to east, it turns sharply south on the Nice Bend to enter India.
Beijing’s resolution to decide on this strategic location for the dam, subsequent to the border with India, has prompted issues in New Delhi.
“It’s apparent that China may have the cardboard to make use of the dam as a strategic consider its relationship with India to control water flows,” mentioned Saheli Chattaraj, assistant professor of Chinese language research at Jamia Millia Islamia College in New Delhi.
Deepak agreed. “Decrease riparian like Bangladesh and India will all the time concern that China might weaponise water, particularly within the occasion of hostilities, due to the dam’s giant reservoir.” The reservoir is projected to have the capability to carry 40 billion cubic metres of water.
The fragility of the terrain provides to worries. “The damming of the river is fraught with a number of risks,” mentioned Deepak. About 15 p.c of the good earthquakes – with a magnitude better than 8.0 on the Richter Scale – within the twentieth century occurred within the Himalayas.
And that sample of main earthquakes hitting Tibet has continued. On January 7, a 7.1-scale earthquake killed at least 126 people. At the very least 5 out of 14 hydro dams within the area examined by Chinese language authorities after the earthquake had ominous indicators of harm. The partitions of 1 had been tilting, whereas some others had cracks. Three dams had been emptied, and several other villages had been evacuated.
In the meantime, the Indian authorities has informed anti-dam protesters in Arunachal Pradesh {that a} counter-dam is required to mitigate the dangers of China flooding their lands, punctuating its warnings with phrases like “water bomb” and “water wars”.
Chattaja, the assistant professor, identified that neither India nor China are signatories to the UN’s worldwide watercourses conference that regulates shared freshwater sources, just like the Brahmaputra.
India and China have been events to a memorandum of understanding since 2002 for the sharing of hydrological knowledge and knowledge on the Brahmaputra throughout flood seasons. However after a military standoff in Doklam – close to their shared border with Bhutan – between the nuclear-armed neighbours in 2017, India mentioned that Beijing had briefly stopped sharing hydrological knowledge. That spring, a wave of floods hit the northeastern Indian state of Assam, resulting in greater than 70 deaths and displacing greater than 400,000 folks.
“It’s a problematic situation and, furthermore, when the connection deteriorates or it’s malevolent, like the best way it was in 2017, China instantly stopped sharing the info,” mentioned Deepak.
Bitter neighbours, bitter relations
The Medog county dam was a part of China’s 14th 5-12 months Plan (2021-2025), and planning has been underneath manner for greater than a decade. Nevertheless, it was formally introduced on December 25, triggering sharp responses from India.
Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs, mentioned that New Delhi has “established consumer rights to the waters of the river”, and has “constantly expressed our issues to the Chinese language aspect over mega initiatives on rivers of their territory”.
He added that New Delhi has urged Beijing “to make sure that the pursuits of downstream states of the Brahmaputra aren’t harmed by actions in upstream areas”, including that India will “proceed to observe and take obligatory measures to guard our pursuits”.
Two days later, spokesperson for the Chinese language Ministry of Overseas Affairs, Mao Ning, informed reporters that the mission “won’t negatively have an effect on the decrease reaches”, and Beijing will “proceed to take care of communication with [lower riparian] nations by current channels and step up cooperation on catastrophe prevention”. She once more underscored the Medog county dam’s function in China’s pivot in the direction of clear vitality and different hydrological disasters.
But, belief between India and China is briefly provide.
Final October, the nations reached an agreement to disengage after practically 5 years of a tense army standoff in Ladakh, following a lethal army conflict on the disputed border in 2020.
However the settlement should not be mistaken for an ice break in bitter relations, warned Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute director on the Wilson Heart, a Washington, DC-based suppose tank. “There are just too many factors of divergence and pressure between India and China, together with this newest flashpoint round water, to anticipate that we might see power in relations,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Kugelman identified that each India and China have borne the adversarial results of local weather change, together with water shortages, and their tussle over water will doubtless solely intensify within the coming years.
“India simply can not afford to see water, which it expects to move down, be bottled up in China,” he mentioned.
‘Bangladesh will face most adversarial affect’
However whereas India and China have interaction in a tug-of-war, specialists say that the worst affect could possibly be felt by tens of millions of individuals in Bangladesh.
Though solely 8 p.c of the 580,000-square-kilometre (224,000-square-mile) space of the Brahmaputra basin falls in Bangladesh, the river system yearly supplies over 65 p.c of the nation’s water. That’s why it’s seen because the “lifeline of Bangladesh”, mentioned Sheikh Rokon, secretary-general of Riverine Folks, a Dhaka-based civil society organisation that focuses on water sources.
“The ‘dam for a dam’ race between China and India will affect us most adversely,” Rokon informed Al Jazeera.
These fears have stored Malik Fida Khan, govt director on the Dhaka-based Heart for Environmental and Geographic Data Companies (CEGIS), on edge for a decade now.
“We now have entry to no data. Not a feasibility report, or the main points of the know-how that shall be used,” he mentioned, his tone tense. “We’d like a shared, and detailed, feasibility research, environmental affect evaluation, after which social and catastrophe affect evaluation. However now we have had nothing.”
The Brahmaputra additionally kinds one of many world’s largest sediment deltas in Bangladesh, earlier than getting into the Bay of Bengal, and instantly helps tens of millions who stay on its banks. “If there’s any imbalance within the sediment move, it should enhance the riverbank erosion and any possibilities of potential land reclaiming will vanish,” Khan mentioned.
India’s dam, Khan lamented, could possibly be notably damaging to the a part of the basin in Bangladesh. “You can’t counter a dam with one other down,” he mentioned. “It’ll have an enormous and deadly affect on tens of millions of us dwelling downstream.”
Rokon agreed. “We have to get out of the ‘wait and see’ perspective concerning Chinese language or Indian dams,” he mentioned, reflecting upon the Bangladesh authorities’s present coverage. “The dialogue on the Brahmaputra river shouldn’t be a mere bilateral dialogue between Bangladesh and India, or India and China; it must be a basin-wide dialogue.”
Because the ouster of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from Dhaka, whose authorities was backed by New Delhi, the brand new dispensation led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has maintained its distance from India. This additionally signifies that there is no such thing as a joint effort, or a unified pushback, from the South Asian nations to counter China’s rising command over the Brahmaputra river, say analysts.
Whereas Khan sees this water disaster as “a golden alternative” for India and Bangladesh to forge ties, Kugelman of Wilson Heart isn’t optimistic.
“We’ve seen that China isn’t a rustic that’s receptive to exterior stress, whether or not it’s from one nation, or two, and even 10,” mentioned Kugelman. “Even when India and Bangladesh had been ready to muster joint resistance towards these Chinese language strikes, it might not be ample to discourage Beijing’s actions.”
In the meantime, the risk going through communities on the entrance traces of those water tensions is barely going to develop, say specialists.
“One can not emphasise sufficient on the importance and seriousness of those water tensions due to how local weather change results might make these tensions way more harmful and probably destabilising within the upcoming decade,” Kugelman informed Al Jazeera.
Again in Parong village close to the Siang River, Jijong says he has no time to relaxation. “We now have been making increasingly more folks conscious concerning the implications of those dams,” he mentioned.
“I have no idea concerning the subsequent era, however, even when I’m 90 years previous and can’t stroll,” mentioned Jijojng, pausing for an extended breath, “I’ll proceed to withstand.”
