As Donald J. Trump took the oath of workplace in Washington on Monday, the group at a jam-packed occasion held by Ukrainian enterprise teams in Davos, Switzerland, intently watched the ceremony on large screens.
The occasion, on the sidelines of the World Financial Discussion board’s annual convention, gave the impression to be a show of enthusiasm for the returned American president. Audio system praised Mr. Trump and predicted that he could be a priceless accomplice for Ukraine in its struggle towards Russia, regardless of his criticism of U.S. spending on the army effort. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns (“American meals,” attendees whispered). A number of individuals applauded on the finish.
But the obvious optimism was a skinny veneer over deep uncertainty.
“We count on President Trump to shock us, however we have no idea what the shock will likely be,” Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, mentioned on the occasion.
Mr. Trump’s return to the White Home has plunged Europe’s enterprise leaders and policymakers right into a precarious period, and officers have been bracing for it behind the scenes. The European Fee — the European Union’s govt arm — fashioned a never-officially-announced group, generally colloquially known as a “Trump activity drive,” which spent a lot of 2024 engaged on potential responses to modifications to American commerce and overseas coverage.
But it’s troublesome for firms and authorities officers to know what’s bluster, or bargaining chip, and what’s actuality. They usually have discovered from the primary Trump administration that criticizing the American president too overtly may accomplish little and will draw consideration and even retribution.
So firms and governments alike are treading fastidiously to curry favor with, or a minimum of keep away from angering, the mercurial president of the world’s strongest nation.
The European Fee is a working example. Employees members on the duty drive spent 2024 researching potential detailed responses to the brand new American presidency. However in public, prime officers have expressed solely a willingness to barter in response to potential tariffs and different threats, whereas vaguely warning that they’d retaliate to guard the bloc’s personal pursuits if crucial.
Ursula von der Leyen, the fee’s president, suggested in the days after Mr. Trump’s election that Europe might purchase extra American liquid pure gasoline. That’s one thing Mr. Trump has mentioned Europe should do to keep away from tariffs.
“The one factor they will do rapidly is purchase our oil and gasoline,” Mr. Trump reiterated to reporters within the White Home after his inauguration on Monday. “We’ll straighten that out with tariffs, or they’ve to purchase our oil and gasoline.”
However Ms. Von der Leyen has usually spoken solely in generalities about how Europe may reply to commerce restrictions.
“Quite a bit is at stake for either side,” she mentioned throughout a speech in Davos on Tuesday, including that “our first precedence” could be to barter.
“We will likely be pragmatic, however we’ll all the time stand by our ideas,” she mentioned. “We’ll shield our pursuits, and uphold our values.”
The duty drive had a large remit however was closely targeted on tariffs, a number of individuals acquainted with the group’s work mentioned. They requested anonymity to debate the non-public talks.
Olof Gill, a European Fee spokesman, confirmed the group’s existence however famous that it was operational all through 2024 — nicely earlier than the precise election — and was not formally referred to as the “Trump activity drive.”
The group was headed by Alejandro Caínzos, an experienced staff member with experience in worldwide relations. He declined to remark for this text.
One strategic cause for retaining the work comparatively quiet is that Europe seems to be making an attempt to maintain its choices open.
Jörn Fleck, senior director with the Europe Heart on the Atlantic Council, mentioned the bloc was being extra disciplined than it was within the first Trump administration, and “not getting drawn into political response cycles.”
“That’s an vital studying curve that the E.U. went by way of,” he famous.
Europe’s planning for potential commerce disruptions additionally is available in distinction to its habits within the first Trump administration, Mr. Fleck mentioned. Again then, tariffs on steel and aluminum stunned America’s allies throughout the Atlantic Ocean.
Even so, any preparations might have limits.
The state of affairs in 2017 was “a way more restricted risk,” mentioned Ignacio García Bercero, a former official on the Directorate Common for Commerce of the European Fee who’s now on the analysis group Bruegel. This time, Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs if he sees match, reasonably than one-off levies on explicit industries.
And Mr. Trump’s second-term actions might span a number of coverage arenas, wrapping collectively vitality, commerce and protection objectives.
In response, European nations “must get far more inventive,” Mr. Fleck mentioned.
In some methods, Mr. Trump’s arrival is hastening modifications that have been already coming. Ian Lesser, who leads the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels workplace, famous that whereas Mr. Trump’s rhetoric might hasten extra European army spending, that change was extensively seen as wanted.
“The large questions he raises solely reinforce present considerations,” Mr. Lesser mentioned.
Nonetheless, Mr. Trump might drive European coverage to evolve extra quickly.
On Feb. 3, the European Council — which includes the leaders of the 27 E.U. nations — will collect at a château outside Brussels to speak about the best way ahead on safety issues, together with points like financing and customary procurement. Notably, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain will attend that occasion, the first time {that a} British premier has met with the complete group because the nation voted to exit the European Union in 2016.
That highlights a risk arising from all the looming uncertainty.
Whereas many in Europe are anxious that Mr. Trump will strike one-by-one offers with nations in Europe — cleaving the union aside — it is usually believable that strain might draw Europe and its companions nearer collectively.
“I feel that the general public will see that there’s power in negotiating as a bloc,” mentioned Beata Javorcik, chief economist on the European Financial institution for Reconstruction and Growth, throughout an interview in a Davos cafe.
Earlier than Monday’s inauguration in Washington, François Bayrou, the French prime minister, criticized america for its “domineering coverage” stances. However within the face of that, he mentioned, European nations ought to work collectively.
“It’s a choice that’s as much as us, the French and the Europeans,” Mr. Bayrou instructed reporters in Pau, a city in southwestern France the place he’s nonetheless mayor. “As a result of clearly, with out Europe, it’s inconceivable to do it.”
Aurelien Breeden, Jenny Gross and Catherine Porter contributed reporting.
