Europe treads carefully as Trump outlines first policy moves

Good morning.

Donald Trump has formally grow to be the forty seventh US president, crashing into workplace with a slate of largely home coverage initiatives and pledging a “golden age of America”.

Beneath, I have a look at Europe’s cowed response to Trump’s first hours. And our central Europe correspondent has a dispatch from a no-confidence vote in Slovakia.

Finest needs

Donald Trump has vowed to “tariff and tax overseas nations” — however held off on asserting concrete commerce measures for now, eliciting a collective sigh of relief and placid reactions round Europe.

Context: Trump was inaugurated in Washington yesterday, immediately announcing measures to deport undocumented migrants, ramp up oil and fuel provide and develop American territory — however holding off on tariffs, for now.

Throughout his speech, Trump introduced an “overhaul of our commerce system to guard American staff and households”.

“As a substitute of taxing our residents to counterpoint different nations, we’ll tariff and tax overseas nations to counterpoint our residents,” he mentioned.

EU leaders rushed to congratulate Trump with messages posted on social media, rigorously avoiding any reference to his first coverage bulletins.

European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen, EU Council president António Costa and chief diplomat Kaja Kallas despatched co-ordinated “greatest needs”. “The EU appears ahead to working carefully with you to sort out international challenges,” they wrote in an identical messages to Trump on X.

Different EU leaders despatched equally generic congratulations, glossing over any variations. “The US is our closest ally and the purpose of our coverage is all the time a very good transatlantic relationship,” wrote German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

On condition that solely a choose group of rightwing politicians — together with Italy’s premier Giorgia Meloni — was invited to Washington, it appears many are eager to maintain the president on their facet, and get their very own assembly with him.

“There may be nonetheless the hope that we will stabilise issues with him. The expectation is that we’ll pay a bit, on commerce, however finally Ukraine will deliver us collectively round a desk,” mentioned one EU official.

However whereas Trump’s first actions as president haven’t straight hit the EU, the White Home additionally introduced the US was leaving the Paris climate accord, a devastating blow for international efforts to battle local weather change, which the EU has championed.

He additionally vowed to be a “peacemaker”, with out making any direct reference to his marketing campaign guarantees to finish the struggle in Ukraine inside six months.

“Trump’s inauguration should be met with our clear dedication: To defend international democracy. To battle local weather change. To face with Ukraine so long as it takes,” Terry Reintke, co-leader of the Inexperienced occasion within the European parliament, wrote on X. “Now greater than ever, the European Union should act united.”

However with Europe’s nationalist proper dedicated to Trump, and centrist politicians afraid to ruffle his feathers, it’s unclear how united a entrance the EU can current towards him.

Chart du jour: Saturation

Revenues from liquefied pure fuel are expected to drop this year, because the volatility attributable to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine subsides.

Combating stance

Certainly one of Europe’s most Russia-friendly leaders faces a take a look at of his energy as we speak: Slovakia’s parliament will maintain a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Robert Fico’s authorities over his closeness with Moscow, writes Raphael Minder.

Context: Fico is serving his fourth mandate as prime minister, which he has used to tighten his grip on power and restrict anti-corruption investigations. His fragile three-party coalition gained parliamentary elections in September 2023, pledging to finish navy assist to Ukraine.

Final month, Fico made a surprise trip to Moscow to fulfill President Vladimir Putin, days earlier than Ukraine closed a gas pipeline that was supplying Slovakia with Russian fuel.

Fico has since threatened retaliation over Kyiv’s pipeline shutdown, which additionally disadvantaged Slovakia of about €500mn a yr in fuel transit revenues. Yesterday, he visited Ankara to debate different fuel provides through Turkey.

Opposition lawmakers need Fico to resign over his closeness with Putin, and folks have taken to the streets in protest since Fico’s Kremlin go to.

Fico is anticipated to narrowly survive as we speak’s vote in parliament, albeit with a wafer-thin majority.

Removed from making an attempt to appease his opponents, Fico issued a combative assertion yesterday, acknowledging that the EU and Nato remained a “very important area” for Slovakia, however warned that this might change.

He drew a comparability with the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact: “Simply because the Warsaw Pact fell, world occasions can ship each the EU and Nato to the historical past books,” he mentioned.

However whereas a Slovak exit from the EU nonetheless appears unlikely for now, snap elections may not, if Fico continues to boost the stakes.

What to observe as we speak

1. EU finance ministers meet.

2. European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy give speeches on the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Now learn these