Iran and Russia have finalised a long-delayed cooperation agreement, reinforcing ties between the 2 international locations simply as they each face mounting geopolitical pressures.
The 20-year deal, signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday, enhances navy and defence cooperation, and features a clause that neither nation would enable its territory for use for any motion that will threaten the security of the opposite, nor present any assist to any get together attacking both nation.
Such a deal has been talked about for years, however present occasions have made the necessity for an settlement extra urgent.
For Russia, the war in Ukraine has strained its geopolitical standing, whereas Iran, along with Moscow, has been grappling with Western sanctions and the fallout from Israel’s assaults on and weakening of several of its allies in the region, in addition to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in early December.
It’s arguably Syria that has supplied the important thing impetus to the strengthening of ties, with each powers shedding a key ally in al-Assad, weakening their energy within the wider Center East.
Each Moscow and Tehran had been finally prepared to let go of al-Assad, having been caught off-guard by the opposition advance. However they now seem dedicated to strengthening their very own bilateral relationship.
The signing of the Complete Strategic Partnership Settlement throughout Pezeshkian’s official go to to Moscow displays that.
The settlement builds not solely on Russian-Iranian cooperation relating to Ukraine and efforts to evade Western sanctions, but additionally on the North-South Transport Hall – an initiative championed by Moscow to facilitate commerce from Asia to Russia.
This route, designed to bypass geopolitical choke factors just like the Suez Canal and the Baltics, favours a land hall by way of Iran, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea.
Syria as a catalyst
Previous to the start of the warfare in Syria in 2011, each Moscow and Tehran had their very own respective strategic partnerships with Damascus.
Russia’s partnership was anchored to the naval base in Tartous, established in 1971 to mission energy throughout the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim airbase, inbuilt 2015 initially to supply air help to al-Assad in opposition to the Syrian opposition. Over time, the airbase has performed a pivotal position in Moscow’s operations in Africa.
Iran, in the meantime, deepened its relations in the course of the Iran-Iraq warfare within the Nineteen Eighties, pushed by an understanding that each Tehran and Damascus opposed Western interference within the area. Syria grew to become an necessary conduit to the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, a part of Iran’s “Shia crescent” and “axis of resistance”.
Iranian and Russian strategic pursuits converged in Syria because the warfare progressed, notably in 2015, when each stepped in forcefully to forestall an opposition victory.
Russia’s navy intervention in 2015 stabilised al-Assad’s regime, aided by Iranian-aligned militias that performed a decisive position in turning the tide of the battle.
“Relations between Russia and Iran have since expanded,” Kirill Semenov, a non-resident professional with the Russian Worldwide Affairs Council, advised Al Jazeera. “After 2020, occasions in Syria had solely a minor affect on Russian-Iranian relations, which have developed in lots of new instructions.”
These embody navy cooperation, and an enlargement of financial ties, with Tehran and Moscow working to bypass Western sanctions by way of various banking mechanisms and vitality offers. Iran has additionally positioned itself as a vital transit hub for Russia’s North-South Transport Hall, providing a significant commerce path to Asia.
Ties have additionally deepened because the Russia-Ukraine warfare, in which Russia is using Iranian-supplied drones, pushed by shared pursuits in confronting the perceived international hegemony of america. Each international locations search options to the US-led international order, with Iran viewing Russia as a associate in its pivot in direction of the East.
Iran becoming a member of the BRICS group of rising economies in 2023, a membership Russia was already part of, will be considered as a part of this effort. BRICS affords a platform for collaboration, as Iran eyes membership and integration right into a multipolar financial bloc aligned with its objectives.
“Constructing a multipolar world and countering the expansionist plans of america and the collective West stay central to Russian-Iranian cooperation,” Semenov mentioned.
It’s this widespread enemy method that has seen Iran and Russia develop nearer, mentioned Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow on the German Institute for Worldwide Safety Affairs.
“The 2 sides have taken steps to raise their relationship towards some kind of strategic partnership, notably in areas like navy and safety cooperation, and extra lately in financial cooperation, geared toward evading sanctions and adapting to the unfavourable implications of financial pressures from the West,” mentioned Azizi.
Limits to a Russian-Iranian partnership
Whereas the cooperation pact signed on Friday alerts a deepening partnership, it doesn’t embody a mutual defence clause or represent the formation of a proper alliance, not like the treaty Russia signed with North Korea final 12 months.
That maybe displays a restrict to the connection between Iran and Russia that has already been seen in Syria.
There, Tehran and Moscow couldn’t discover widespread floor and had been most of the time undermining one another or unable to rise to the problem of rebuilding the nation.
For instance, in 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made it clear his nation could be the one one to rebuild Syria’s vitality trade. Iran, which was wanting to reap the advantages of reconstruction in Syria, was stored at bay by al-Assad and Moscow with one Iranian parliamentarian warning that Iran was being “sacrificed”.
The brand new Syrian administration may grow to be some extent of divergence between Russia and Iran, with Moscow sustaining a extra conciliatory method.
Azizi famous that the fallout from al-Assad’s fall for each Russia and Iran will rely on quite a few variables, together with “whether or not or not there was some behind-the-scenes settlement or understanding between Russia on one facet and the US, Turkiye, and [the former] Syrian rebels on the opposite, as a part of a possible complete bundle that features Syria and Ukraine”.
“For instance, if Russia can preserve its navy bases in Syria, albeit in a extra lowered capability, and if there’s an settlement to finish the warfare in Ukraine after [US President-elect] Donald Trump takes workplace, Russia may very well really feel much less want for Iranian help on numerous fronts in each Syria and Ukraine,” Azizi added, though he added that he believed any basic modifications in Iran-Russia relations had been unlikely given the “growing depth of cooperation” previously few years.
Divergence is feasible in different areas too, notably on the subject of nuclear weapons, which Iran has been accused by the West of searching for. Iran’s defence doctrine formally opposes the pursuit of nuclear weapons, however some factions in Iran have now publicly referred to as for that to vary after Israel landed a number of blows to its allies, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Russia has traditionally been concerned in Iran’s nuclear programme, together with within the development of the Bushehr nuclear energy plant, however repeatedly stalled progress all through the 2000s and 2010s, leaving some in Iran to accuse Russia of being an unreliable associate. Moscow additionally delayed the supply of the S-300 missile defence system between 2010 and 2016, a results of the sanctions positioned on Tehran by Western nations.
“Russia doesn’t need Iran to be geared up with nuclear weapons … [that] would change the steadiness of energy within the Center East in opposition to Russia’s pursuits. The most effective situation for Russia is for Iran to stay underneath sanctions and to problem the US and Europe over its nuclear programme,” mentioned Armin Montazeri, overseas coverage editor at Hammihan Day by day in Tehran.
“If Russia had been to cooperate in containing Iran, it might probably search concessions from the US on the Ukraine problem,” Montazeri added.
New instructions within the Center East
Geopolitical dynamics can at all times change relying on occasions on the bottom, as Syria has confirmed, and with the dearth of any sturdy ideological bonds past an anti-US technique, relations between Iran and Russia might fray.
The altering nature of alliances will be seen in Turkiye’s opposition to Iran and Russia, and its cooperation with them.
In December 2024, because the Assad regime crumbled, the Turkish, Iranian, and Russian overseas ministers convened on the sidelines of the Doha Discussion board in Qatar.
The tripartite assembly was convened underneath the Astana course of, a diplomatic initiative geared toward managing the Syrian battle, the place Russia and Iran had served as guarantors on the regime facet and Turkiye on the opposition’s.
Astana served as a chance for the three powers to work collectively to realize safety objectives in Syria, whilst they supported completely different sides. However for a lot of the course of, it was Turkiye that was within the weaker place, contemplating what was seen as al-Assad’s de facto victory within the warfare.
That has now modified, and it’s Turkiye’s longstanding help for the previous opposition that locations it ready of energy vis-a-vis Iran and Russia, and a conduit for affect on Damascus.
It’s a new actuality that they will must adapt to, mentioned Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish Research on the Omran Heart for Strategic Research in Istanbul.
“Iran, whereas clearly deprived, must modify to the brand new actuality and set up some type of relationship with Syria’s new authorities,” mentioned Ozkizilcik, referring to the just about carte blanche the Assad regime gave Iran to function inside Syrian territory.
For its half, Russia, whereas hoping to maintain its bases in Syria, is hedging the brand new actuality by turning partially to Libya, the place it has an in depth relationship with the jap authorities primarily based in Benghazi and Russian cargo planes have made a number of flights to its al-Khadim base.
Iran, however, has seemingly retreated to Iraq in a bid to consolidate its place. Stories have emerged that it has pushed its allies in Iraq to cease firing rockets and drones in direction of Israel, which can have led to US-Israeli assaults on their positions.
On this context, Iran is prone to shore up its affect in Iraq, “the final pillars of Iran’s axis of resistance,” mentioned Montazeri.
Iraq’s significance now serves as a monetary useful resource and defensive buffer for Tehran, which depends on the nation for financial help amid sanctions.
Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Governance and Coverage suppose tank in Tehran, mentioned Iran has a historical past of adapting to shifting geopolitical dynamics, and can have the ability to stand up to any modifications and preserve its relationship with Russia.
But no matter offers emerge between Russia and the US following Trump’s inauguration, Iran’s management doesn’t count on Putin to radically alter his strategic course in direction of Iran.
“Putin is effectively conscious of the anti-Russian stance embedded within the US and European institutions,” Emamian mentioned.
“Over the past three years, Russia has confronted what it perceives as an existential problem from the West … it appears unlikely that Putin would danger his longstanding alliances, particularly with those that have confirmed their loyalty in vital moments, resembling in Syria and Crimea,” Emamian added.
