The tip of 2024 delivered a shocking flip of occasions within the 13-year-long battle in Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed spectacularly when confronted with a restricted operation by insurgent forces.
Amid the turmoil, Israel expanded its occupation of Syrian land within the south of the nation, expelling a whole bunch of Syrians from their houses. It additionally launched a devastating marketing campaign of aerial bombardment, wiping out the Syrian air pressure and navy capabilities. A few of the bombardment was so huge that it registered as minor earthquakes. Dozens of individuals have been killed because of these strikes.
Israeli troopers have additionally repeatedly shot at civilians protesting the occupation. These folks come from communities which have lengthy resisted Israel’s supposed archenemies, the al-Assad regime and Iran. These developments are but additional proof that the Israeli claims about combating solely “the axis of resistance” and looking for friendship with the folks of the area are completely vacuous.
Israel has clearly chosen to start relations with the brand new authorities of its neighbour with battle. It has positioned itself as the most important spoiler of efforts to stabilise Syria and set up authentic, democratic governance.
You will need to keep in mind that Israel was fairly snug with a distinguished member of the “axis of resistance”, the al-Assad regime. For many years, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad made positive Israel’s northern border stayed quiet. After the signing in 1974 of the “separation of forces” settlement, his regime made no extra makes an attempt to regain the Golan Heights, which Syria had misplaced to Israel throughout the 1967 battle as a consequence of al-Assad’s failed insurance policies as defence minister.
The established order didn’t change below Hafez’s son Bashar. As a state that maintained de facto peace with Israel with no treaty, Syria posed nice advantages to each the USA and Israel – in some methods, much more than Arab states that had totally normalised relations with the Zionist entity.
As an example, the al-Assad regime’s affiliation with the “axis of resistance” allowed it to be in a particular place to share intelligence and barter on wished people and teams in alternate for its personal survival. Israel considered it as a uncommon prize that allowed it to violate Syria’s sovereignty at will and divert consideration from its personal crimes because of the sheer scale of regime violence towards the Syrian folks.
When the Syrian revolution began in 2011, this was dangerous information for each Bashar al-Assad and Israel. The Israeli authorities made clear to its Western allies that it didn’t need the regime to break down.
In 2013, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorities helped US President Barack Obama’s administration stroll again its menace to strike the al-Assad regime over its use of chemical weapons in Ghouta outdoors Damascus. It proposed a deal between the US and Russia to have the Syrian chemical arsenal eliminated, which was then used as an excuse by Washington to not make good on its “purple line” promise.
Israel welcomed Russia’s intervention in 2015 to assist maintain Bashar al-Assad in energy and even offered the Russian military with drones that had been used towards the Syrian opposition. In 2018, it “accredited” the regime’s takeover of rebel-held territory in southern Syria as a part of a negotiated Israeli-Russian deal.
Netanyahu declared on the time: “We haven’t had an issue with the Assad regime. For 40 years, not a single bullet was fired on the Golan Heights.”
When Israel launched its newest encroachment on Syrian territory in September, two months earlier than Bashar al-Assad’s fall, there have been no bullets fired. The Syrian president’s response was to disregard the enlargement of the Israeli occupation and declare publicly it by no means occurred.
From September to December, Israel added 500sq km (192sq miles) of Syrian land to the Syrian territory that it has already occupied since 1967. This space consists of all the demilitarised zone of the 1974 “separation of forces” settlement in addition to areas past it as Israeli media declare Israeli troops management 95 p.c of Quneitra province. The Israeli military has expelled scores of Syrians from their villages and cities and penetrated so far as Quneitra metropolis and the city of al-Baath. The Syrians of the south couldn’t have fun the downfall of the regime that they had lengthy hoped for.
Analysts have provided totally different takes on why Israel has invaded new Syrian territories. Some see “strategic” and “navy” benefits in having positions so near Damascus. Others see it as a conquest designed to barter for Syrian recognition of the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights. Nonetheless others level to the “non secular proper” and their declarations that “the way forward for Jerusalem is to develop to Damascus”. No matter how this invasion was framed amongst Israeli decision-makers, it matches right into a historic sample: Israel has been expansionist since its basis, together with below secular and left-wing governments.
Past the intrinsic worth of its newly “conquered” land, the expanded occupation goals to create a brand new issue of instability for the brand new Syrian authorities. This serves two functions. Ideally, it turns into a stress level on the brand new authorities to weaken Syrian solidarity with the Palestinian trigger. However even when this fails, it is going to function a continued supply of destabilisation, pressure and stress inside Syrian politics that may deform the democratic trajectory of post-al-Assad Syria. International occupation of territory typically has this impact on home politics, together with within the Center East, the place authoritarian rule has largely been justified with Israeli aggression and occupation.
Israel’s entrenchment, as soon as secured, shall be very troublesome to undo – and can have an effect on all the new political experiment in Damascus. There’s an pressing must confront it, particularly as a result of Israel is making an attempt to benefit from Syria’s distraction.
Nonetheless, the method of the brand new authorities has been to attempt to remove all pretexts for the Israeli aggression and depend on the worldwide group to rein it in. Syria’s new de facto chief, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has been express on this method and left nothing hidden: Whereas declaring that Israel had “crossed the traces of engagement”, he additionally famous that Syria did not have the military capacity to confront the Israeli military at this level and wouldn’t permit any social gathering to make use of Syrian territory to tug it into such a battle.
Syria’s new authorities are undoubtedly strolling a tightrope. On one facet, they face a severe menace of state collapse and on the opposite in style stress to stabilise the financial system and supply companies, which could be massively facilitated by the lifting of sanctions by Western powers allied with Israel.
However the early “comforting” noises from the brand new authorities, the possibilities of Israel pressuring Syria onto a “normalisation” path are weak. An isolationist minority may come up that argues for improved ties with Israel and an finish to Syria’s historic help for the Palestinian trigger, however satirically, the possibilities of this taking place dwindle with each new strike Israel launches.
There’s little help for normalisation not solely among the many normal inhabitants but in addition among the many insurgent rank and file, who will develop into the spine of the brand new military and state safety equipment. The group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the de facto new authority in Damascus, has been traditionally averse to such engagement with Israel and so are the numerous variety of Palestinians amongst insurgent fighters and commanders in Syria. Pushing on this course may set off inner revolt.
Israel has made clear that it’ll not wait and see how the brand new Syrian authorities will end up. The Israeli method, at all times, is preemptive aggression, nearly no matter who’s on the opposite facet.
Within the Syrian case, nevertheless, Israel is aware of that solidarity between Syrians and Palestinians has remained robust for many years regardless of makes an attempt to undermine it. For the reason that outbreak of the Syrian revolution, each Syrians and Palestinians (significantly in Gaza) have held demonstrations in solidarity with one another.
Israel additionally is aware of that the free Syria trigger enjoys immense ethical legitimacy and power amongst Syrians and Arabs as a complete. That’s the reason it is going to search by means of continued navy manoeuvres and diplomatic sabotage to stop the brand new Syrian authorities from sustaining stability at dwelling and attaining legitimacy overseas.
The increasing Israeli aggression necessitates a united entrance, together with on the extent of activism. All those that lament Bashar al-Assad’s fall and gloat over the Israeli bombardment of Syria ought to do properly to replicate on why Israel is attacking now. Clearly a cohesive, democratic Syria could be a a lot stronger proponent of Palestinian liberation than the Assadist tyranny ever was.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
