United States President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping of China will meet on Saturday in what is anticipated to be their final face-to-face assembly throughout Biden’s time period as Beijing braces for a Donald Trump presidency in Washington.
The 2 leaders are attending a two-day heads of state assembly of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group in Lima, Peru, that started on Friday. Saturday’s assembly would be the third time the 2 will meet in person since Biden took workplace.
Relations between China and the US, the world’s most vital superpowers, had nosedived throughout Trump’s first time period as president, when he began a commerce struggle with Beijing, utilizing punishing tariff charges.
But ties grew to become even rockier prior to now 4 years of the Biden administration, with sore factors starting from commerce wars to TikTok. In 2023, Mexico overtook China because the US’s greatest commerce associate for the primary time in 20 years as financial ties deteriorated.
Nonetheless, Biden has sought to maintain a steady relationship with Beijing. US Nationwide Safety Adviser Jake Sullivan advised reporters forward of the Lima assembly that Xi and Biden would talk about the transition to a Trump White Home and the necessity for level-headedness on either side in that interval.
In his election marketing campaign this 12 months, Trump threatened to slap 60 p.c blanket tariffs on all Chinese language imports to the US.
Right here’s an image of how the US-China relations soured beneath Biden – and what to anticipate beneath Trump 2.0:
Commerce wars
Trump, in his first run as authorities, kickstarted a commerce struggle with China after his administration blamed Beijing for ‘unfair’ commerce practices that it stated contributed to a big commerce deficit in China’s favour. These practices, the US maintains, embrace pressured labour, mental property theft and unfairly low pricing that hurts US producers. China has lengthy denied these allegations.
From January 2018, the Trump administration imposed increased tariffs on Chinese language imports at charges of between 10 to 25 p.c beneath Part 301 of the Commerce Act. Beijing accused Washington of ‘nationalist protectionism’ and retaliated with increased tariffs on US imports.
Nonetheless, near the tip of Trump’s first time period, the 2 international locations agreed to a deal that might see Washington scale back tariffs on some items. China in return dedicated to enhancing mental property rights and likewise shopping for an extra $200bn-worth of US items above 2017 ranges by the tip of 2021. Trump touted the take care of Xi, his “excellent pal” as successful, however researchers in 2022 stated that China had purchased items price only 58 percent of the quantity it had dedicated to buying.
Biden primarily stored Trump-era tariffs in place all through his time period and moreover sanctioned Chinese language corporations for coping with Russia, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In Might 2024, the Biden administration reviewed the Part 301 restrictions and imposed increased charges of between 25 to 100% on some Chinese language imports. Electrical autos and photo voltaic cells have been among the many affected items.
President Biden additionally tightened export controls on semiconductor know-how vital for growing synthetic intelligence and threatened to broaden sanctions on Chinese language banks working with Russia. Tariffs on China presently account for $77bn of the $79bn that the US authorities earns by way of tariffs, in line with the Tax Basis, a Washington-based monitor. By 2022, the US commerce deficit with China stood at $383bn.
On defending Taiwan
Face-offs between the 2 international locations over self-ruled Taiwan intensified beneath Biden. Whereas China claims the area as its territory, the US is Taiwan’s strongest ally and backs the island to counter Beijing’s rising navy energy within the Asia Pacific.
Beijing doesn’t rule out utilizing pressure to subdue Taiwan. Routinely, the Chinese language navy conducts drills with warships and plane close to Taiwan, prompting alarm. Up to now two years, these drills have intensified, particularly within the wake of prime US officers like then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Taipei in 2022.
In its latest transfer, China launched the Joint Sword-2024B workouts on October 14. Beijing stated the navy drills have been a “stern warning to the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan Independence’ forces”.
“We are able to see that the world has a variety of regional flashpoints which are ongoing and perhaps Beijing sees this as … a possibility to check their will and see if the world’s help for Taiwan is powerful sufficient,” Kuang-shun Yang, the co-founder of the Taipei-based suppose tank US-Taiwan Watch, advised Al Jazeera, referring to the Russia-Ukraine war, and the conflicts in the Middle East.
It’s broadly believed {that a} Chinese language invasion might immediate a US navy response, though Washington’s “strategic ambiguity” coverage retains either side guessing. Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te although, has promised to “resist annexation or encroachment” by Beijing.
The US is Taiwan’s primary provider of weapons. In late October this 12 months, the US angered Beijing when it accepted a $2bn arms sale package to Taiwan, together with superior surface-to-air missile techniques and radars. China pledged to take “all crucial means” to say its possession over the disputed area.
Tensions earlier flared straight between Washington and Beijing in February 2023 when Biden ordered the capturing down of a Chinese “spy” balloon allegedly geared up with antennas that traversed US airspace.
TikTok over within the US?
In April, Biden signed a law giving ByteDance – the Chinese language proprietor of the wildly widespread TikTok app – 9 months to divest its stake within the firm or face a ban within the US for allegedly endangering nationwide safety. The deadline for the sale – January 19 – is someday earlier than Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Successive US administrations, together with Trump’s first authorities, have handled the app with mistrust. Authorities cite rising issues that information from TikTok’s 170 million US users could be tapped by China for espionage. Some intelligence officers of the Federal Bureau of Intelligence have even warned that Beijing might affect American customers by manipulating TikTok’s extremely efficient algorithm that curates video content material that customers are uncovered to.
TikTok denies these claims. Chief government Shou Zi Chew, who was grilled by US lawmakers in Congress in March 2023, maintained that “Bytedance shouldn’t be an agent of China”. The app is now banned from government-issued telephones within the US, the UK and Canada.
Trump’s administration was the primary to aim a TikTok ban again in 2020, beneath an government order. Nonetheless, the corporate was capable of secure an injunction from a Washington decide who stated such a prohibition was illegal. Specialists say TikTok might once more search an injunction, and that the authorized course of might take a number of years.
China has maintained it’s towards the app’s sale.
What to anticipate beneath Trump?
Trump’s second time period might see the commerce struggle escalate, economists predict. His top cabinet picks embrace a number of officers recognized to advocate a harder stance in direction of Beijing, together with Florida Senator Marco Rubio. The senator, whom Trump has named as his incoming secretary of state, is under Beijing’s sanctions for his outspoken criticism of Chinese language insurance policies.
Alternatively, Trump’s cupboard additionally contains X and Tesla proprietor Elon Musk, who has – not less than whereas carrying his businessman’s hat – been much less hawkish in direction of China.
Whereas the president-elect has lengthy claimed that the US-China commerce imbalance can solely be corrected by slapping heavy tariffs on Chinese language items, analysts notice that his first-term tariffs didn’t shut the hole.
The tariffs, which have been additionally meant to immediate US producers in China to return to the nation and improve manufacturing, truly induced some to shift to equally low-cost international locations like Bangladesh or Vietnam as a substitute, in line with 2021 findings by QIMA, a Hong Kong auditing agency.
In the meantime, Trump’s plans for Taiwan are much less clear. In his first time period, he spoke on to former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, igniting Beijing’s anger. Historically, the US avoids leader-to-leader contact. Trump’s administration additionally elevated weapon gross sales to the island.
Nonetheless, throughout this 12 months’s election marketing campaign, Trump, whereas talking on the Joe Rogan podcast, alleged that Taiwan stole American chip companies, referencing the US’s reliance on the island’s semiconductors. He additionally criticised Taiwan for not paying the US for “safety”. Analysts say these feedback might sign much less pleasant relations.
As for TikTok, Trump might prove more flexible, though he first led the cost towards the corporate. Throughout campaigns this 12 months, he pledged to “save TikTok” – however has not revealed particulars. Trump argues banning TikTok would empower Fb, which he calls an “enemy of the individuals.”
Specialists say Trump might push for US authorities to change the Biden ban or drop it. Tech regulation skilled Anupam Chander advised Al Jazeera that Trump might additionally ask the US Congress to empower him to re-negotiate with the corporate.
“I feel many politicians would like that TikTok not go darkish within the US in January. In spite of everything, some 170 million Individuals proceed to make use of the app, even after the federal government advised them it’s a nationwide safety menace,” Chander stated.
