If it varieties, Rafael could be the eleventh hurricane of the 2024 season and will strike western Cuba as a Class 1 storm.
Miami, Florida, United States – A hurricane is anticipated to type within the Caribbean and convey heavy rain and mudslides to Cuba earlier than heading into the nice and cozy waters of the Gulf of Mexico, in keeping with the US Nationwide Climate Service.
Tropical Storm Rafael is anticipated to strengthen right into a hurricane on Monday because it approaches Jamaica and will additionally carry heavy rainfall to the Florida Keys and components of the southeastern US later within the week, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) mentioned.
Jamaica and Cuba may have as much as 230mm (9 inches) of rain, probably inflicting flooding.
The federal government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Look ahead to the capital, Havana, and provinces in japanese Cuba, together with Pinar del Rio and Matanzas.
The storm may exacerbate an acute energy crisis in Cuba. Components of the island have skilled extended energy outages in latest weeks because of decrepit infrastructure and an absence of gasoline for its oil-fired energy stations.
Cuba remains to be recovering from Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall on the japanese finish of the island two weeks in the past with most sustained winds of about 130km/h (80mph).
The brand new climate system was nonetheless solely a tropical despair early on Monday and was situated about 310km (196 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica. It had most sustained winds of 55km/h (35mph) and was shifting north at 15km/h (9mph), the NHC mentioned.
A tropical storm varieties when sustained winds attain 63km/h (39mph), and it turns into a hurricane once they attain 119km/h (74mph).
The storm was anticipated to maneuver close to Jamaica late on Monday and is anticipated to achieve hurricane power earlier than it reaches western Cuba late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday.
Forecasters mentioned the core of the hurricane is forecast to move west of Florida whereas adversarial atmospheric circumstances ought to stop Rafael, the 18th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, from creating right into a life-threatening climate system because it approaches the US coast over the Gulf of Mexico.
This hurricane season has seen above common exercise with 10 hurricanes already, together with two main ones – Helene and Milton – which hit Florida and North Carolina, inflicting widespread destruction and killing greater than 200 folks.
Solely seven seasons on report have had 11 Atlantic hurricanes by the primary week of November, in keeping with Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State College.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 has shaped within the Caribbean and is forecast to change into a #hurricane by 6 November. If it does, it could be the eleventh of the 2024 Atlantic season. 7 seasons on report have had 11+ Atlantic hurricanes by 6 Nov: 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020. pic.twitter.com/EXYqB5ZLPC
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 3, 2024
“It’s value noting that solely 4 hurricanes within the fashionable report (since 1966) have been recorded within the Gulf of Mexico in November, so a hurricane right here this late within the season could be an uncommon occasion,” famous Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in Miami and writer of the Eye on the Tropics weblog.
