EXPLAINER
Because the US election approaches, we discover the Electoral School routes for Trump and Harris to safe the presidency.
Within the US Electoral College, a candidate wants no less than 270 out of 538 electoral votes to win the election.
Every state is allotted a sure variety of electoral votes based mostly on its inhabitants. Some states constantly favour one get together, whereas “battleground” or “swing states” can shift, making them essential in deciding the election.
This election options seven battleground states, totalling 93 electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6).
How can Kamala Harris win?
Harris is projected to safe no less than 226 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, with main contributions from California (54), New York (28) and Illinois (19).
To succeed in 270 electoral votes, Harris will want no less than 44 of the 93 battleground votes.
The best path for her can be to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16), securing 51 electoral votes and a Harris presidency. Nevertheless, for the time being, she is trailing Trump in all three, based on the FiveThirtyEight common of polls – Pennsylvania solely very marginally, and Georgia and North Carolina by barely greater margins.
Mathematically, Democrats have 11 potential methods by which Harris may get to 270 Electoral School votes by successful simply three of the seven battleground states, and one other 9 methods by successful 4 states. Profitable 5 or extra battleground states would safe the presidency for both candidate.
Right here’s the mix of three or 4 swing states Harris would want to win to get to 270:
How can Donald Trump win?
Republicans are projected to safe no less than 219 electoral votes from 24 states nationwide, with main contributions from Texas (40), Florida (30) and Ohio (17).
To succeed in 270 electoral votes, Trump will want no less than 51 of the 93 battleground votes.
Identical to the Democrats, the simplest path for him is to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16), securing 51 electoral votes and bringing the Republicans as much as precisely 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. He at the moment leads in all three states, per ballot trackers.
If Republicans don’t win all of these three states, then they have to win no less than 4 out of the seven battleground states to safe the presidency. Mathematically, Republicans have 20 four-state successful mixtures.
What occurs if Harris and Trump finish in a tie?
There are three situations by which Harris and Trump may each attain 269 electoral votes.
This might happen if there are not any surprises, with Harris and Trump securing their 226 and 219 electoral votes respectively, and the next outcomes within the battleground states:
Situation 1:
- Democrats win:
Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) - Republicans win:
Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) and Michigan (15)
Situation 2:
- Democrats win:
Georgia (16) North Carolina (16) and Arizona (11) - Republicans win:
Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6)
Situation 3:
- Democrats win:
North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) - Republicans win:
Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and Michigan (15)
If any of those outcomes happen, then a contingent election takes place by which the US Home of Representatives decides the winner.
Every state’s delegation within the Home would forged one vote, and a candidate should obtain a majority (26 out of fifty) of the state delegation votes to win.
The US Senate would then select the vice chairman with every senator casting one vote and a easy majority (51 votes) required to win.
The graphic under highlights the successful mixtures for every candidate.
