Hiya and welcome to the working week.
The week forward is a big one for central banks on either side of the pond, with the Federal Reserve and the Financial institution of England every set to announce rate of interest choices. First up on Wednesday is the Fed, the place it might appear the query is not if there might be a fee minimize, however slightly by how a lot.
Whereas markets on Friday ascribed a 57 per cent chance to a quarter-point minimize, traders had sharply increased their bets on a half-percentage-point rate of interest, because the US central financial institution makes strikes to decrease borrowing prices for the primary time in additional than 4 years.
Knowledge launched final Tuesday confirmed that US inflation fell to 2.5 per cent in August. “Disinflation is an imperfect journey but it surely’s actually taking place,” Kristina Hooper, chief world market strategist at Invesco, informed the FT final week.
Within the UK, my colleague Valentina Romei reported that public confidence in the BoE’s strategy to handle inflation took a optimistic flip in August, for the primary time in additional than two years, in keeping with official knowledge forward of the financial institution’s fee determination that can happen on Thursday.
Markets largely count on the BoE to maintain UK charges on maintain, however underwhelming figures from last Tuesday’s GDP report for July have barely elevated the chances of a fee minimize. Earlier this month, Michael Saunders, senior financial adviser at Oxford Economics and a former exterior member of the BoE’s Financial Coverage Committee, theorised that the UK’s rate-cutting cycle could be quicker than expected. He concluded that “market pricing at the moment implies that Financial institution Charge will fall to about 3.75% at end-2025 and keep round 3.5% thereafter”.
In corporations information, we are able to count on half-year outcomes from B&Q and Screwfix proprietor Kingfisher, Q3 outcomes from on-line grocery retailer Ocado and half-year outcomes from clothes retailer Subsequent.
Yet one more factor . . .
Tech lovers who’re unable to launch themselves from the ever-tight shackles of Apple merchandise ought to brace themselves for the vary of latest units that can hit shops on Friday, together with the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Sequence 10 and AirPods 4. The corporate got here underneath fireplace earlier this yr for its alleged use of illegally exported minerals from the war-torn east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. On the time, Apple’s disclosures mentioned the corporate had “no affordable foundation for concluding” that any of its tin, tungsten and tantalum smelters or refiners “straight or not directly financed” armed teams within the DRC or adjoining nations.
Apple has been increasing its use of recycled supplies in its merchandise to cut back its consumption of such metals and minerals, which we hope has been mirrored within the launch of its “most modern line-up but”.
Key financial and firm reviews
Here’s a extra full checklist of what to anticipate when it comes to firm reviews and financial knowledge this week.
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
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UK: BoE fee determination
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US: Preliminary jobless claims
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Enterprise insights and affect on the UK economic system statistics
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UK: Annual financial savings statistics
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Outcomes: Subsequent HY, FedEx Q1
Friday
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UK: Public sector funds
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UK: Month-to-month retail gross sales figures
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Japan: Financial coverage assembly determination
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US Labor Division, Bureau of Labor Statistics: State Employment and Unemployment, month-to-month report (Aug 2024)
World occasions
Lastly, here’s a rundown of different occasions and milestones this week.
Monday
Tuesday
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Monetary Instances and Schroders Enterprise Ebook of the yr shortlist introduced Compensate for the longlist here.
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Italy: Milan Vogue Week begins
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UK: Inaugural Sky Arts Awards
Wednesday
Thursday
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UK: BMW PGA Championship will get underneath approach
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UN Safety Council discusses Israeli settlements
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St Kitts and Nevis: Independence Day
Friday
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US: First states start early in-person voting in presidential election
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UK: Reform chief Nigel Farage speaks at his celebration’s nationwide convention
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Brazil: G20 tourism ministers assembly
Saturday
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Sri Lanka: presidential election the place latest polls have projected a robust exhibiting for Folks’s Liberation Entrance chief Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
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US: Republican VP nominee JD Vance speaks at Tucker Carlson Dwell Tour cease in Pennsylvania
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World Alzheimer’s Day
Sunday
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UK: Labour celebration convention commences
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UN Summit of the Future begins
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Singapore: F1 Grand Prix
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US: NYC Local weather Week begins
