China’s President Xi Jinping and African leaders hailed their shared future as they opened a three-yearly summit, whilst debt burdens, tensions over commerce imbalances and rising geopolitical rivalries forged shadows over Beijing’s relationships on the continent.
African leaders from 50 international locations arrived in Beijing this week for the summit, which ends on Friday with a blueprint for China-Africa relations till 2027.
“On the street to modernisation . . . not a single nation ought to fall behind,” Xi instructed the leaders in his opening speech to the discussion board on Thursday.
He pledged Rmb360bn ($50bn) in monetary help over the following three years together with loans, help and Chinese language company funding in addition to help for African international locations to subject renminbi-denominated “panda bonds” in China’s onshore markets. He additionally laid out a 10-point plan overlaying commerce, agriculture and safety, in addition to providing “governance” and navy coaching.
Beijing is eager to leverage its dominance as Africa’s largest buying and selling companion to seal profitable mining offers and export alternatives to help its struggling financial system, in accordance with analysts, whereas keeping off geopolitical rivals on the continent, together with the US.
For his or her half, African leaders need Beijing to deal with a commerce imbalance that has allowed China to eat the area’s uncooked supplies, equivalent to iron ore and oil, whereas exporting manufactured items that undercut home manufacturing. China’s commerce surplus with the continent is about $64bn.
“You’re going to see requests [from African leaders] for infrastructure finance, whether or not it’s for vitality or transport and roads or ports, and for help round industrialisation initiatives,” stated Zainab Usman, senior fellow and director of the Africa Program on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace.
She stated this may cowl the processing and refining of essential minerals and associated manufacturing, equivalent to in clear vitality. “It is a large space proper now for lots of African international locations,” she stated.
In 2023, China authorized loans of $4.61bn for eight African international locations and two regional monetary establishments — the primary time the annual mortgage quantity for the continent has risen since 2016.
However this stays far beneath the peak of Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative, when common annual commitments surpassed $10bn, in accordance with the Chinese language Loans to Africa Database of the Boston College World Growth Coverage Middle. From 2000 to 2023, Chinese language loans to Africa totalled $182.28bn.
For Xi, who earlier within the week hailed China’s “shared future” with African international locations, a vital precedence is avoiding additional debt issues, analysts stated.
With China’s funds already stretched by a deep property sector slowdown, Beijing favours smaller authorities lending and better involvement by state-owned enterprises or non-public sector buyers.
Zambia defaulted on its debt in 2020, adopted by Ghana and, extra not too long ago, Ethiopia, with a dozen different African international locations dealing with debt strains. Angola owes China about $17bn, greater than a 3rd of its exterior debt.
“Financing is a giant theme given the state of debt within the African international locations. There’s plenty of discuss extending concessional financing, restructuring debt,” stated a senior financial official of a Horn of Africa nation in Beijing.
The gradual debt renegotiations, particularly with Zambia, have sparked criticism of China’s function. However Tang Xiaoyang, a professor and China Discussion board skilled at Tsinghua College, objected to the notion that “if a rustic borrows cash and so they have issues, that the blame ought to fall on China” regardless of the area’s speedy escalation of Chinese language debt.
Regardless of the continent’s debt woes — and the poor file of some BRI tasks — African leaders have stepped up requires extra funding in bilateral conferences with Xi.
In Kenya, for instance, the $5bn Chinese language-funded customary gauge railway linking the port metropolis of Mombasa to the capital Nairobi has been criticised as economically unviable and never benefiting native communities.
However this week, Kenya’s President William Ruto — whose predecessor borrowed closely from Beijing — instructed Xi {that a} projected enlargement of the railway to Uganda and past was one in every of “Kenya’s high priorities within the engagement with China”. He additionally named different tasks in want of funding, together with highways.
Kenya this week additionally formally joined the Asian Infrastructure Funding Financial institution, the Beijing-led various to the World Financial institution.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa praised “a rise in our bilateral commerce” but additionally urged Beijing to import extra items and construct extra factories in Africa’s most industrialised nation, together with a name for China’s BYD and CATL to put money into electrical automobile and battery manufacturing.
He added that South Africa “wish to slim the commerce deficit and deal with the construction of our commerce . . . we urge for extra sustainable manufacturing and job-creating investments”.
Different international locations lodging requests embrace Nigeria, which is in search of investments in manufacturing and vitality infrastructure, whereas Zambia needs new investments in essential mineral processing and copper.
Zambia would even be a beneficiary of a plan to revamp the Tazara railway, one of many highest-profile offers to be mentioned on the summit.
The $1bn refurbishment of the road, which was constructed within the Seventies with Chinese language assist below Mao Zedong and connects Zambia to Tanzania, will eschew borrowing and lift money via a concession to Chinese language buyers as Beijing retools its strategy in the direction of extra direct funding.
“We’re nonetheless going to see Chinese language investments in infrastructure,” stated Cliff Mboya, a fellow on the Middle for Africa-China Research on the College of Johannesburg. However new tasks will pursue “revolutionary methods of funding”.
Looming over the Tazara challenge is geopolitics. The renovated line will compete with a revamped US-backed railway working from the central African copper belt to Angola’s Atlantic coast — one indication of western international locations more and more courting African leaders for entry to essential minerals following an extended interval the place they gave China little competitors.
Nevertheless, whereas the US and others had been turning into extra energetic within the continent, China retained an edge via robust people-to-people ties and its narrative of being a “growing nation” helping its companions within the international south alongside the trail of industrialisation, stated Jana de Kluiver, analysis officer on the Institute for Safety Research in Pretoria, South Africa.
The US technique, against this, got here throughout as “being extra of an anti-China coverage than an Africa coverage”, she stated.
