QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, No person has a pc that covers every part. Your forecast on the WEC that the Democratic Celebration would collapse is unprecedented. No person has even contemplated that such a factor may happed. But evening now that is unfolding. The new polls from NBC Information and CNN. The former poll showed that solely 27% of People held a constructive view of the occasion, with solely 7% holding a “very constructive” view. Each are file lows for the ballot. Then, the CNN results discovered the Democrats’ approval at 29%, setting the file low for that ballot as nicely.
Is there something you may say as to how Socrates can forecast what no person is able to even desirous about?
Wm
ANSWER: My confrontation with the bankers who instructed the CFTC to close us down after the forecast that Russia would collapse in 1998 was predicated on the belief that the forecasts work solely as a result of I’ve extra institutional purchasers than the NY crowd mixed. What they by no means thought-about was that simply perhaps I found one thing profound that the New Yorker known as the Secret Cycle.
What I found modified my life. There are two paths of analysis.
- (1) The Max Path: You begin with a concept and cherry-pick information to say you’re proper
- (2) The Adam Smith Path: You observe to determine how one thing features.
The complexity that exists is outstanding. However the precision of how and when occasions will happen can be astonishing. All financial theories from Marx onward started with the identical assumption: that the enterprise cycle is random and that, subsequently, the federal government, by way of its central banks, can manipulate it to create perpetual prosperity.
I had a pleasant dialogue with Paul Volcker, and he agreed. The enterprise cycle was about 8 years. Each Volcker and Burns concluded that the enterprise cycle all the time wins. All of the theories that attempt to manipulate society to eradicate the enterprise cycle are out of thoughts. What I ran into was not mere complexity however precision that I by no means anticipated to find.
That is Not the First Political Celebration to Collapse
A big issue within the collapse of the Federal Celebration was the anti-state view in favor of centralized federal energy. Moreover, there was the Warfare of 1812. For a very long time, the Federalist occasion supported peace with Britain and conflict with France, whereas the Democratic-Republican occasion had the precise reverse place. Ultimately, British habits in the direction of the US throughout its conflict with France prompted anti-British and thus anti-Federalist sentiment. The Democrats have sought to exert energy in Washington and dictate coverage to the states on points corresponding to abortion. They’ve additionally supported Ukraine and fostered the conflict towards Russia, which was why the Neocons swung to the Democrats.
The Hartford Conference of 1814-1815 was important within the Federalist occasion’s collapse. This largely Federalist conference in New England urged some constitutional amendments. Nonetheless, it was alleged to contemplate New England’s secession from the Union and a separate peace with Britain, not in contrast to California. After the conflict, the conference was broadly seen as an act of treason and a black mark on the repute of the Federalist occasion.
What can be missed is that the Federalists have been basically a mercantilist occasion in comparison with the South, which was agrarian. Alexander Hamilton, together with most Federalists, was making an attempt to lift the standing of america internationally whereas nonetheless preventing the final conflict. Thus, the Federalists have been pro-industrialization, which was nonetheless in its infancy. They are saying that industrialization would make america a extra highly effective nation within the eyes of the worldwide group. Many wrongly assume that the Federalists have been a “conservative” occasion within the fashionable sense. Sure, Hamilton was pro-bank and pro-business.
Hamilton additionally established the Nationwide Debt to lift america’ credit score standing in worldwide eyes. Nonetheless, he was foremost a federalist, constructing america into a major energy. What’s missed is that the Federalists have been the ancestors of not simply the Whigs but additionally FDR insofar as they noticed the federal authorities had a job in regulating, managing, and controlling society and the financial system.
Don’t neglect that throughout the Whiskey Revolt, a tax revolt in Pennsylvania, George Washington despatched troops to kill those that rebelled. That was the essence of the Federalists: dictatorial energy from a central command. The Federalists, like Roosevelt, believed in a constructive function for the federal authorities. That’s the place the Democrats have occupied at this time. Biden tried to rent 75,000 IRS brokers who can be armed.
Then got here the Warfare of 1812, disrupting manufacturing imports to america, which led even the Jeffersonian Republican Celebration to chill out its insurance policies towards industrialization. The Federalists had supported Britain for enterprise. However many producers discovered the laissez-faire of the Republican Celebration to be extra helpful than the Federalists, whose coverage was if it moved, tax it. If it stopped shifting, kick it. The Warfare of 1812 killed the Federalists, and extra industrialists moved to Jefferson.
As a substitute of the Warfare of 1812, when the British burned Washington, DC, and the Federalists had supported the British, at this time now we have the Neocon Proxy Warfare in Ukraine towards Russia, and a few idiots on Capitol Hill wished to fee a marble bust of Zelensky to face within the US Capitol subsequent to Washington and Jefferson.
The Democratic Celebration nonetheless refuses to confess that, simply maybe, their radical fringe proposing intercourse modifications in jail for unlawful aliens simply might need gone too far. Producing comedian books on equality and handing them to the Taliban for $$20 million. In the actual world, you need to have a possible marketing strategy. In Washington, the crazier the thought, the extra money you get.
Listed here are the 2 pc forecast arrays from 2018 and 2024. 2024 was a major goal in 2018, but the 2021 goal was the strongest with a Panic Cycle. That was Biden. That was all she wrote, of us, for the Democrats. They won’t exist by 2033.
This chart plots as a share of complete seats mixed within the Home and Senate. They peaked out earlier than slavery, and every rally produced a declining pattern. Sorry, however it is a bear market. It is going to be time to prove the sunshine for the Democrats, and their wacky WOKE agenda is cherished solely by the intense fringe. My father was a Melancholy Democrat. He would by no means have voted Democrat at this time.
I’m beginning with a e book on the Financial Confidence Mannequin that I promised I’d do to depart for society. I’ll in all probability print the primary version myself, for will probably be nicely illustrated and formal publishers don’t like that as a result of it’s too costly to provide. The second version may be stripped of the illustrations they don’t need to print. However I are usually a perfectionist. It must be proper to place my identify on it. I don’t promote promoting right here as a result of I don’t need to seem to endorse any product.
