As lately as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the concept of a brief cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month during which President Trump turned American overseas coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager at the least to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and the USA on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, advised reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “rigorously finding out” the end result of Tuesday’s talks between the USA and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He mentioned he anticipated the USA to tell Russia within the coming days of “the main points of the negotiations that passed off and the understandings that had been reached.” He raised the potential for one other cellphone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes during the last month as Mr. Trump realigned American overseas coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from the USA and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his wishes for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he needs to finish the conflict as quickly as doable, Mr. Putin has signaled he won’t cease preventing till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine won’t be part of NATO and that the alliance will cut back its presence in Central and Jap Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the objective of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some form of respite.” Russia, he mentioned, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the reputable pursuits of all individuals, all nations who reside on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a brief cease-fire stemmed from the straightforward calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely hand over its leverage by stopping the preventing with out profitable concessions.
However a Feb. 12 cellphone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, could have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good aspect, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, mentioned the Kremlin could possibly be tempted to simply accept a truce that might be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” so as to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has stored up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russian information companies reported on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, in line with two individuals conversant in the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inside plans. On Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Trump advised reporters that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week and that he hoped an enduring cease-fire can be negotiated within the coming days.
“It definitely just isn’t inconceivable that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, mentioned of the 30-day provide. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, non permanent cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
In one other signal of Moscow’s attraction offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s overseas ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the overseas minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to a few American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information character Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and mentioned Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that the USA was providing.
Mr. Putin’s calculus is also affected by Russia’s progress in current days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had mentioned he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it might refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area largely again in Russian fingers, Mr. Putin now not dangers dropping face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would depart Ukraine answerable for a swath of Russian territory, mentioned Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An additional incentive to agree, Mr. Markov mentioned, was to ensure that Russia “doesn’t appear to be a conflict maniac” within the eyes of non-Western international locations which have prevented imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he mentioned, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, akin to a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine at some stage in the cease-fire.
“Russia will very doubtless say, ‘Sure, however —,’ ” Mr. Markov mentioned in a cellphone interview.
Russia’s in style pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce might ultimately result in a broader cope with the USA that, of their view, would betray the unique objectives of the conflict and ultimately result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the title Alex Parker Returns, argued in a post on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would permit Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the following spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
